Doctor’s Orders: Are cut-price forwards worth the risk?
The rules in SuperCoach are the same as investing — buy low, sell high. Will Joe Daniher, Toby Greene and Darcy Moore deliver quick returns or blow up in your face? The expert team from Doctor SuperCoach takes a closer look.
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It is often stated that the basis of SuperCoach is akin to a game of investing — buying low and selling high.
The coaches who navigate the investing landscape the best tends to come out on top; there is a reason they’re called “trades”, after all.
Much like investing, we have blue chip stocks like Jack Macrae who provide solid dividends in the form of a reliable weekly score, and there are speculative picks that promise a chance at capital gains and a quick return.
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In the third instalment of Doctor’s Orders by the expert team at Doctor Supercoach, we put three cut-priced forwards under the microscope to assess if they are worth selecting in 2019.
TOBY GREENE $354,600 – OWNERSHIP 19 PER CENT
Ball-magnet turned intelligent forward Toby Greene once again presents coaches the tantalising opportunity of a 100-averaging forward at a fraction of the price.
After bursting out of the blocks with 131 in Round 1 last season, Greene endured a frustrating year of setbacks, playing only seven games. However, Champion Data still rated him in the top five for general forwards for scoreboard impact.
A strength of Greene’s game is marking the ball inside forward 50 and with the new 6-6-6 rule set to be introduced in 2019, it’s highly likely he can exploit this rule change to his advantage.
Greene didn’t drop below 16 disposals in any of his 16 games in 2017, yet in 2018 it was a different story, with four of his six games not affected by injury resulting in less than 16 touches.
He is also said to be on track for Round 1, progressing well in his recovery from ankle surgery following the Giants’ loss to Collingwood in the semi-finals last year.
The Giants’ season begins at home against Essendon (career average of 99.7) before taking on West Coast (past two scores of 96 and 112) which bodes well for a fast start to the season. But keep in mind that Greene has only twice played more than 20 games in a season in his seven-year AFL career, which indicates an increased chance he will sit on your bench at one stage or another this season.
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DARCY MOORE $239,400 – OWNERSHIP 10 PER CENT
While your mates might never tell you about their flop selections, they will never fail to remind you year after year about their breakout pick — that undervalued, underappreciated player they picked one year that bursts through a perceived scoring ceiling to either become a season-long keeper or a brilliant cash cow.
For this reason, every pre-season hype builds around certain players predicted to break out regardless of what their previous SuperCoach scoring history would dictate. One player that fits this category is the flexible Darcy Moore. Is the hype justified?
His 54 matches over his first four seasons on Collingwood’s list have hardly been groundbreaking. However, towards the end of 2018 his role switched from a forward to an intercepting defender, and Moore has continued this role in recent Collingwood match simulations, including taking a portion of kick-ins.
Now, he’s not the first forward-turned defender the AFL has seen, but he certainly has shown glimpses of his potential. After being switched to a full-time defender last season he rated elite in intercept possessions, intercept marks and spoils by Champion Data.
These are all great ways for generating points in SuperCoach, and his new-found scoring potential is demonstrated by his scores last season of 68 and 91 while playing as a defender, compared to his career average of 57.
Moore’s forward/defender dual-position status also increases his appeal, as this enables coaches to swing him between lines as required.
JOE DANIHER $277,800 – OWNERSHIP 7 PER CENT
Last year the prodigiously talented Daniher managed only seven games and suffered his first injury-impacted season since beginning to blossom on the big stage.
Over the previous four seasons, Daniher played 86 of a possible 88 regular season matches, demonstrating his durability. During this time, he also increased his scoring power, booting 28 goals at an average of 1.3 goals per game in 2014 up to 65 goals at an average of 2.8 goals per game in 2017. In 2018 he averaged a paltry 1.1 goals per game.
One strength of Daniher’s game is his ability to stamp his authority on the contest, something all the great forwards have done in their prime. When he scores above 100 SuperCoach points, he averages 116 and in 2017 he topped three-figures nearly 30 per cent of the time; highlighting his matchwinning potential.
The elephant in the room in regards to Daniher is his touch-and-go status for Round 1. John Worsfold recently stated that while he was “hopeful” of Joe lining up against the Giants on March 24, Essendon planned on taking a conservative approach to ensure he wouldn’t burn out during the season. He is certainly one to watch as the pre-season progresses.
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