Champion Data SuperCoach formguide: Trade tips, key match-ups for Round 5
NEED a replacement for Jack Billings or a point of difference up forward? Proven scorer Josh Kennedy is in just 2 per cent of teams — and he has kicked 10 goals against Carlton before. Exclusive Champion Data intel plus TRADE OF THE WEEK.
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ROOKIES are starting to ripen, injuries are hitting hard and we are starting to eat into our trades — and it’s only Round 5.
Thankfully, the stats gurus at Champion Data — provider of the stats that power SuperCoach — are here to help us out with the inside intel you need to make the right calls when it comes to trades, captains and which rookies to start on field and who to leave on the bench.
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TRADE OF THE WEEK
More than 17,000 players have traded in St Kilda bubble boy Nick Coffield who is projected to rise in price $53,000 after his third game on Saturday.
Remarkably, more than 1600 of those are bringing Coffield in at the expense of teammate Jack Billings but by far the most popular move is pulling the pin on Docker Andrew Brayshaw.
Despite good pre-season scores Brayshaw has failed to fire, averaging 42 in his first four games — and he has to score 54 this week to maintain his price.
FORMGUIDE
The underperforming premiums once again stole the headlines in Round 4.
Michael Hibberd, Todd Goldstein and Jack Billings continued to struggle, with the trio now expected to plummet further in price after their next match.
If you’ve had enough of Billings (break-even of 146 points) and are looking to move him on, a swap to Jesse Hogan could be the way to go. Hogan looks set for a breakout season, averaging a career-high 22 disposals, 10 contested possessions, three goals, two tackles and 110 points. His accuracy has also improved, recording a career-high scoring accuracy of 71 per cent.
Another key forward to consider is Josh J. Kennedy, albeit he’s a riskier proposition considering he just returned from injury. He didn’t miss a beat against Gold Coast, scoring five goals and 105 points and faces a Carlton side this week that gives up the most points to key forwards. Kennedy has form against the Blues as well, scoring 178 and 120 points in two of his past three games.
The in-form Robbie Gray has to be in the mix as well coming off a career-high 39-disposal game. Only Ollie Wines has attended more centre bounces at Port Adelaide since Gray’s return to the side. With recruits Steven Motlop, Jack Watts and Tom Rockliff getting the job done up forward, Gray looks set to play predominately as a midfielder, ensuring he continues to score heavily over the coming rounds.
ROOKIES
The time is nigh to start culling some of our cash cows. At the head of the queue is Andrew Brayshaw with a break-even score of 54 points, while teammate Adam Cerra (break-even 32) may only have one more price rise left. Brayshaw, the 12th-most selected player in the competition, has been starved of minutes, playing just 63 per cent of game time, the fourth-lowest percentage of any player in the AFL to play all four games.
The No. 1 trade-down target is bubble boy Nick Coffield. A dual-position midfield/defender, Coffield has scored 66 and 80 points in his two games and with uncertainty surrounding Dylan Roberton’s return, his job security looks to be assured in the short-term.
Coffield’s ball use has stood out, hitting the target 86 per cent of the time which is the second-highest percentage of any St Kilda player since Round 3.
If you’re looking to cash in a forward, then look no further than Zac Giles-Langdon. He has missed the past two games through injury and is yet to increase in price, so a break-even score of -43 points is too hard to pass up. He’s an important pressure player for the Giants and if he’s deemed fit to play, he should be straight back into the side.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Sydney Swans v Adelaide Crows
Josh P. Kennedy has suffered the biggest price fall of any Sydney player, falling by $58,600 after averaging 83 points. Rory Sloane has also been well below his best, dropping by $52,100 on the back of a 93-point average.
St Kilda v GWS Giants
Shane Savage ranks fourth among defenders for points scored with an average of 103 points. Heath Shaw has had a resurgence after an indifferent 2017, averaging 23 disposals and 92 points.
Carlton v West Coast Eagles
Charlie Curnow finished with a season-low 73 points in last week’s big loss to the Kangaroos. Josh J. Kennedy returned to action with a five-goal haul against the Suns, helping himself to 105 points.
Port Adelaide v Geelong
Robbie Gray played a lone hand last round against Essendon, finishing with a career-high 39 disposals on his way to 139 points. Timothy Kelly enjoyed a further price rise of $71,900 after scoring 89 points against St Kilda.
Fremantle v Western Bulldogs
A career-low kicking efficiency of 51% has impacted Lachie Neale’s scores, averaging 20 fewer points compared to 2017. Jack Macrae is in career-best form, averaging 32 disposals, six clearances and 124 points.
North Melbourne v Hawthorn
Ben Brown was the matchwinner last round against Carlton, finishing with five goals and 167 points. Jaeger O’Meara had his best game in Hawthorn colours, finishing with 26 disposals and a game-high 145 points against Melbourne.
Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast Suns
Stefan Martin scored 98 and 129 points respectively from his two games against Gold Coast last season. Jarryd Lyons could only manage 12 disposals, one score involvement and 66 points in their Round 21 clash last season.
Melbourne v Richmond
Christian Petracca had a career-high six clanger kicks against the Hawks, managing just 69 points from 23 disposals. Dustin Martin booted a career-high six goals to finish with a game-high 141 points.
Collingwood v Essendon
Adam Treloar was Collingwood’s top-ranked player in last year’s corresponding Anzac Day encounter with 141 points. Dyson Heppell led the way for the Bombers with a team-high 122 points.
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