Champion Data form guide: The fallen SuperCoach premiums who should be on your trade radar
Identifying fallen premiums is a tactic that most successful SuperCoaches adopt and several popular starting picks have already plummeted in price. Here’s who you should target. CHAMPION DATA FORM GUIDE.
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Identifying fallen premiums is a tactic that most successful SuperCoaches adopt.
They are usually players that have made a slow start, whether its through injury or a close tag, or even just underperforming.
One prime example from 2018 was Zach Merrett.
He was concussed in Round 1 and only scored 17 points.
He was then tagged by the Bulldogs in Round 3 and managed 53 points.
The result was a massive price drop. He clicked into gear in Round 4 against the Power and then ranked sixth in the AFL for points scored by midfielders for the remainder of the season.
The 2019 version of Merrett could be Dustin Martin.
His early-season struggles have been well-documented and after he serves his one-game suspension, he’ll have a massive breakeven of 180 points to reach.
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He has already dropped by $43,400 and will fall even further. He’s definitely one to monitor over the coming rounds if he shows any signs of getting back to his best.
Stephen Coniglio is another player to keep an eye on.
He was held to 53 points by Mark Hutchings in Round 2 and now has a huge breakeven of 182 points ahead a clash against the high-flying Cats.
Another poor score could be on the cards as he averages just 78 points at Geelong from four career games. The end result could be another hefty price drop.
Rory Laird is a player that has underperformed in the opening rounds, needing a score of 154 this week just to keep his price.
The return of Brodie Smith and the emergence of Wayne Milera as a defender has impacted his numbers, averaging 25 disposals — well down from the 38 he averaged in the opening three rounds of 2018. He has also been targeted by the opposition with both George Hewett and Tom Atkins spending time on him this year.
The list below should be used as a reference guide over the coming rounds as prices are set to tumble across the board.
Harris Andrews (BE 144), James Sicily (BE 144), Toby McLean (BE 144), Max Gawn (BE 144) and David Mundy (BE 142) are other starting premiums whose price should continue falling.
Rookies
It was payday for our rookies last round as they enjoyed their first of what will be hopefully be many price rises.
Charlie Constable boomed by $87,700 which was the biggest rise of any player in the league.
Connor Rozee (+$70,500), Willem Drew (+$70,100) and Matthew Parker (+$69,200) weren’t too far behind.
Looking ahead, we need to keep a close eye on breakevens.
As soon as that figure creeps up to their season average — then a decision has to be made about moving them on.
Unfortunately, that day has come a little too soon for both Tom Atkins (-1 BE) and Michael Gibbons (0 BE).
Their days of making SuperCoaches money are definitely numbered, especially in the case of Gibbons where he could only manage a game-low 17 points against the Swans.
He leads the Blues for forward half pressure points in his debut season, but that doesn’t equate to any SuperCoach points. A 36-point season average is also well below what we expected.
Round 3 debutant Sydney Stack is the player earmarked to come straight into our sides after his next match.
Despite being a midfielder in SuperCoach, his AFL journey began in defence.
He starred against the Giants, winning a team-high 10 intercepts to go with 17 disposals and a disposal efficiency of 82%.
Some SuperCoaches may look to make a move for him ahead of Round 4, but we do need to be mindful that he could do a ‘Joshua Glenn’, that is, score 100+ on debut and then follow that up with a 36 the next week.
In terms of bubble boys, there are several to choose from — should they all hold their place in the side.
The mature-age Jay Lockhart was a lot more involved in his second match, scoring 57 points. He also offers DPP flexibility.
Teammates Corey Wagner and Tom Sparrow are other players to consider should you have a non-playing midfielder.
ROUND 4
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Sydney Swans vs Melbourne
Isaac Heeney bounced back last round with four goals and a game-high 137 points in the win over Carlton. Angus Brayshaw was one of few winners against Essendon, having 34 disposals and 108 points.
Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs
Darcy Moore had the highest price rise (+$48,600) of any Collingwood player last round after scoring 79 points. Tom Liberatore’s price boomed by $79,200 after piling on 150 points against Gold Coast.
Geelong Cats vs Greater Western Sydney
Mitch Duncan had 26 disposals, 18 uncontested possessions and 105 points at GMHBA Stadium in Round 2. Stephen Coniglio has struggled at the venue across his career, averaging 78 points from four games.
Essendon vs Brisbane Lions
Dyson Heppell led the Bombers to their first win of the season with a season-high 27 disposals and 125 points. Lachie Neale’s blistering start to the season continued after racking up 43 disposals and a round-high 177 points.
Port Adelaide vs Richmond
A five-goal haul for Connor Rozee led to a massive price spike of $70,500 after scoring 116 points against Brisbane. Dion Prestia was industrious against the Giants — managing 33 disposals and 92 points.
North Melbourne vs Adelaide Crows
Todd Goldstein suffered an $18,100 price drop despite scoring 114 points from a season-high 15 hit-outs-to-advantage in the loss to Hawthorn. Rory Laird’s price tumbled by $31,700 after scoring 102, 89 and 84 points respectively.
West Coast Eagles vs Fremantle
Andrew Gaff scored 123 points from 33 disposals in last year’s infamous Round 20 Derby against the Dockers. Michael Walters finished with 22 disposals, two goals and 99 points of his own.
Gold Coast Suns vs Carlton
Brayden Fiorini is the leading ball winner at the Suns this season — averaging a career-high 107 points. Michael Gibbons has struggled to find the ball as the result of a forward role, scoring a game-low 17 points against the Swans.
St Kilda vs Hawthorn
Jack Billings had a team-high 32 disposals in the loss to the Dockers, scoring 108 points. Jaeger O’Meara dropped below 100 points for the first time this season against the Kangaroos — finishing with 32 disposals, 12 tackles and 89 points.
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