SuperCoach: Gold Coast says Gary Ablett on track for Round 1 but should we pick him?

THE GAZ DEBATE: Get the pros and cons of picking Gary Ablett and the best SuperCoach tips in an all-new SuperCoaches Box podcast.

Gold Coast Suns training at Metricon Stadium - Gary Ablett Pic by David Clark

DO we or don’t we pick Gary Ablett in SuperCoach ahead of Round 1? SuperFooty rivals Al Paton and Gilbert Gardiner go head-to-head.

Ablett — the fifth most expensive player in the game at $623,200 — is again the subject of much SuperCoach heartache after the Suns’ confirmation the superstar wouldn’t play against Adelaide on Friday night and would also miss a scratch match before Round 1.

Traditional SuperCoach rivals Don’t Argue and Team Gardiner discuss the pros and cons of picking superstar midfielder.

THE CASE FOR GARY

This is Gary Ablett. Do I have to write any more?

GAJ is the king of SuperCoach. He has averaged at least 114 for the past nine years — including a seven-year run of 127-plus.

That of course ended last year when injury finally struck the great man. So with another injury scare confronting us, let’s take a closer look at that season.

Ablett entered Round 1 under a massive injury cloud thanks to a bung shoulder. In Round 1 against Melbourne he was smashed into the turf at every opportunity by Jack Viney — and still scored 119 SuperCoach points.

After Round 2 he had to take some time off (not ideal) and came back in Round 14 with no warm-up games under his belt. In the next three games he scored 124, 153 and 189. Should I continue?

Rocket Eade said on radio this morning that Ablett started a couple of years at Geelong with no pre-season games as well as 2013 at the Suns. In that year Gold Coast played St Kilda first up. Gazza’s score? 178.

Lesson: This guy doesn’t need match practice.

LISTEN TO AL PATON AND GILBERT GARDINER DEBATE ABLETT, WHO WE SHOULD PICK IN THE RUCK AND MIDFIELD PLUS EVERY ESSENDON TOP-UP PLAYER RATED IN A NEW SUPERCOACHES BOX PODCAST:

The Suns are being conservative because Ablett did a mountain of running over Christmas so the next couple of weeks will allow him to taper beautifully for Round 1.

If you go in without Ablett there’s a chance you’ll pick up some extra points by selecting a fully fit midfielder instead — but based on the above evidence that seems unlikely unless Gaz pulls out altogether.

With his starting price already discounted (for him), he’ll have to absolutely tank to drop in value much more — and then you have to use a precious trade to get him anyway.

With just 30 trades for the season, I won’t be planning to use one to get the best player in the history of SuperCoach when I can pick him now and save the grief.

A final note. The Suns play Essendon in Round 1. Against the Bombers on Saturday seven Geelong players scored over 100, led by Patrick Dangerfield’s 151. Freo in Round 2 might be a bit tougher for Gold Coast but then it’s Carlton and Brisbane. I hope I’m up against Gazza-less Gilbert in our office league in the first four rounds.

— Al Paton

DO YOU AGREE WITH @al_superfooty or @gilbertgardiner? Have your say on Twitter @SuperFooty or in the comments section below

THE CASE AGAINST GARY

FOOL me once Gaz, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.

I mean really ... how could you pick him with any confidence?

He used to be the golden boy of SuperCoach but a lot has changed over the past 12 months.

Last year it was a shoulder injury that wrecked his pre-season and restricted the future AFL Hall Of Famer to just six games.

This time it’s a “minor sprain” in his ankle that turned into a tendon problem. Sound the alarm.

I’ve heard it all before: Gaz averaged at least 114 for the past nine years. In seven of those years he averaged 127+.

Oh ... and the clincher. Gaz scored 178 in Round 1 2013 after not playing any pre-season games.

That was THREE years ago. He was 28 going on to 29.

The Suns claim Gaz had not missed a beat prior to this injury and that he will be right for Round 1 despite conceding the latest setback is far from ideal.

Truth be told, Gaz running over the Christmas break and on an anti-gravity treadmill — to limit the impact on his soon-to-be 32 year-old legs — on the weekend provides little solace for cash-strapped SuperCoaches.

We have $10m to fill our 30-man squads with a combination of premium midfielders, breakout players and rookies.

Can you justify spending 16 per cent of that cap on player who is only a 50/50 chance to play in Round 1?

Not to mention the Suns are headed across the Nullarbor in Round 2 ... will Gaz make the AFL’s longest road trip?

— Gilbert Gardiner