Run Home: What the first week of finals could look like, where your side looks set to finish
Upsets and nailbiters will lead to a summer of regret for teams that miss the top eight. Here are the games you might have forgotten that have proved incredibly costly.
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The race for the final spots in the top eight is going down to the wire, but it could have been very different.
Richmond’s premiership three-peat hopes ended with a disappointing loss to GWS last weekend but the Tigers would still be very much alive if not for some surprising results earlier in the season.
LADDER PREDICTOR: SCROLL DOWN TO SEE HOW THE FIRST WEEK OF FINALS WILL LOOK
And the same goes for every team that will just miss out on September action.
Here are the results you might have forgotten about that will lead to a summer of regret.
ESSENDON
Round 1: Lost to Hawthorn by 1
Round 8: Lost to GWS by 2
The Bombers look set to book a return to finals on Sunday but their top-eight spot would already be locked in if not for one of the more bizarre results of the season way back in March. Essendon led by 39 points at halftime after a second-quarter blitz and was still in front with two minutes to go before Hawthorn pinched an incredible one-point win. The Bombers ran several top-eight teams to the wire, coming closest against GWS with the siren sounding as the ball was in the air heading into the Bombers forward line after Kyle Langford cut the margin with 25 seconds left.
WEST COAST
Round 4: Lost to St Kilda by 20
Round 17: Lost to North Melbourne by 10
Do the Eagles deserve to play finals? You can argue about that but what’s not in dispute is they would be sitting comfortably in the eight if not for losing some matches they should have won. West Coast had a comfortable 33-point lead in the third quarter against St Kilda before falling in a gaping hole, and gave up the last five goals after storming to the lead against North Melbourne in Perth.
FREMANTLE
Round 9: Lost to Essendon by 7
The Dockers have come out on top in almost every close finish this season, but they paid the price for a year of inaccuracy against the Bombers — booting 8.13 to 10.8 to give up four points that would have had them sitting in seventh spot going into the final round.
RICHMOND
Round 4: Lost to Port Adelaide by 2
Round 13: Lost to West Coast by 4
Round 16: Lost to Gold Coast by 10
Round 17: Lost to Collingwood by 16
Round 20: Lost to Fremantle by 4
The Tigers’ horror record in close games (1-3 in games decided by under a goal) and inability to close out final quarters has cost them a finals spot this year. Richmond led by 22 points midway through the final quarter against an innately accurate West Coast and hit the front against Fremantle and Gold Coast within sight of the finish line, and was steamrolled by Collingwood after leading by 20 points at three-quarter time.
ST KILDA
Round 3: Lost to Essendon by 75
Round 9: Lost to Geelong by 21
Round 10: Lost to Western Bulldogs by 111
Round 13: Lost to Adelaide by 6
Regrets? The Saints have had a few. They have played like a finalist at times this year but have found ways to lose games that will ultimately prove costly. Massive losses to Essendon, Richmond and the Bulldogs destroyed St Kilda’s percentage, a horror night of goalkicking (5.17) cost it a shot at victory against the Cats and the Adelaide game was just torture. The Saints dominated the first two-and-a-half quarters then allowed the Crows to kick the final seven goals of the game, with the final dagger a miraculous over-the-head shot from Riley Thilthorpe.
CARLTON
Round 19: Lost to North Melbourne by 39
Round 21: Lost to Gold Coast by 19
The Blues got themselves into a position where a finals run became a real possibility - all they had to do was beat the teams they should beat. Seven goals to Nick Larkey and another flop against Gold Coast later and Carlton is looking at another brutal end-of-season post-mortem.
RUN HOME: HOW FINALS COULD LOOK
The final round of the home and away season is here and the jostling for spots in the top-eight and top-four is on.
Are they already set, or could things be shaken up in Round 23?
We’ve take a look at every club’s best and worst case scenarios and predicted what the first round of finals will look like.
1. MELBOURNE
Record: 16-1-4, 132.3%
R23: Geelong (L)
WE SAY: A first minor premiership since 1964 is the Demons’ to lose, with Melbourne sitting pretty two points atop of the ladder entering the final round. However, a tough top-of-the-table clash with second-placed Geelong at GMHBA Stadium awaits this weekend. Melbourne scored a 25-point win when these sides last met at the MCG in Round 4, but the Cats on their home turf are generally a different proposition. Geelong has won 89 of its past 100 matches at the venue.
BEST CASE: Finish 1st if they beat Geelong.
WORST CASE: Finish 3rd if they lose to Geelong and Port Adelaide defeats Western Bulldogs.
PREDICTED FINISH: 2nd
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $4.25
2. GEELONG
Record: 16-5, 128.6%
R23: Melbourne (W)
WE SAY: The Cats have won six of their past seven matches and showed some heart to overcome an early 31-point deficit against St Kilda on Saturday and score a 14-point win. At home at GMHBA Stadium this weekend, you’d expect them to overcome Melbourne and secure a second minor premiership in three years after also saluting in 2019. It’s an even competition and the loss of star defender Tom Stewart to injury hurts, but Geelong still looks to be the No. 1 seed heading into September.
BEST CASE: Finish 1st if they beat Melbourne and maintain their 1.3 point percentage gap on Port Adelaide.
WORST CASE: Finish 4th if they lose to Melbourne and Western Bulldogs defeat Port Adelaide and Geelong loses its 1.3 point percentage gap on Port Adelaide.
PREDICTED FINISH: 1st
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $4
3. PORT ADELAIDE
Record: 16-5, 127.3%
R23: Western Bulldogs (L)
WE SAY: A thumping 95-point win over Carlton on Saturday was a bit of a statement and the Power have now won five on the trot, albeit four of those have come against sides outside the top-eight. This weekend they come up against fellow top-four side the Western Bulldogs, who are wounded but far from down for the count. The problem for the Power is they still hold a 3-4 record against top-eight sides. If they can take the scalp of the Bulldogs this week, their credibility will rise. But given that record, it’s hard to have faith and tip them this week as things stand.
BEST CASE: Finish 1st if they defeat the Western Bulldogs and Geelong defeats Melbourne and Port Adelaide overcomes a 1.3 point percentage deficit on Geelong.
WORST CASE: Finish 4th, if they lose to the Bulldogs and Melbourne defeats Geelong and Geelong maintains its 1.3 percentage point advantage over Port Adelaide
PREDICTED FINISH: 4th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $6.50
4. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Record: 15-6, 134.5%
R23: Port Adelaide (W)
WE SAY: The Bulldogs have fallen from first on the ladder two weeks ago to fourth on the back of consecutive losses to Essendon and Hawthorn, which have been cause for some concern. The Bulldogs managed only five goals against the Hawks on the weekend, which doesn’t win you many games. However, against a Port Adelaide side that is largely unproven against the competition’s better sides this weekend, you’d expect the Bulldogs to bounce back. They scored a 19-point win last time they met the Power at Adelaide Oval in Round 9 and get the fellow top-four side in Melbourne this time around. The stakes couldn’t be higher, with the possibility that a loss could drop the Bulldogs outside of the top-four.
BEST CASE: Finish 2nd if they beat Port Adelaide and Melbourne beats Geelong.
WORST CASE: Finish 5th if they lose to Port Adelaide and Brisbane beats West Coast and Brisbane overcomes a 1.8 percentage point deficit on the Bulldogs.
PREDICTED FINISH: 3rd
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $5.50
5. BRISBANE LIONS
Record: 14-7, 132.7%
R23: West Coast Eagles (W)
WE SAY: After a shaky previous month, the Lions have hit back strongly in the past fortnight to score two bumper wins over Fremantle (64 points) and Collingwood (85 points). Given that form and West Coast’s struggles in the second half of the season, you have to think the Lions will score another strong win over the Eagles this weekend. There is plenty to play for given top-four is still a possibility if things fall their way.
BEST CASE: Finish 4th if they beat West Coast and Port Adelaide defeats Western Bulldogs and Brisbane overcomes a 1.8 percentage point deficit on the Western Bulldogs.
WORST CASE: Finish 6th if they lose to West Coast and Sydney defeats Gold Coast.
PREDICTED FINISH: 5th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $8
6. SYDNEY
Record: 14-7, 115.1%
R23: Gold Coast (W)
WE SAY: The Swans got the job done against bottom-of-the-table North Melbourne on Saturday, even though it wasn’t particularly convincing. Interestingly, Sydney suffered a 40-point loss last time they faced Gold Coast in Round 6, but it’s hard to see that happening again. Expect the Swans to score a second-straight win heading into finals. The past three weeks haven’t been as strong as the previous four weeks, but Sydney still has the ability to do some damage in September.
BEST CASE: Finish 5th if they beat Gold Coast and West Coast defeats Brisbane.
WORST CASE: Finish 6th if they lose to Gold Coast.
PREDICTED FINISH: 6th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $13
7. GWS GIANTS
Record: 10-1-10, 98.9%
R23: Carlton (W)
WE SAY: The Giants look set to hit finals in some good form, having toppled Geelong (19 points) and Richmond (39 points) in the past two weeks. They get a flat Carlton side this week – which is coming off a 95-point loss to Port Adelaide – and things are looking up on the injury list and availability front, headlined by acting captain Toby Greene returning from suspension. It’s all in the Giants’ hands from here.
BEST CASE: Finish 7th if they beat Carlton.
WORST CASE: Finish 9th if they lose to Carlton and West Coast defeats Geelong and Essendon defeats Collingwood.
PREDICTED FINISH: 7th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $17
8. ESSENDON
Record: 10-11, 107.2%
R23: Collingwood (W)
WE SAY: The Bombers look set for a return to finals after climbing back into the top-eight with a crushing 68-point win over Gold Coast on Sunday which importantly boosted their percentage by 3.8 points. It was a second-straight win for Ben Rutten’s side, which had also toppled top-four outfit Western Bulldogs the previous week. They should make it three wins on the trot heading into September with a win over a battling Collingwood this week. Could Essendon finally end that dreaded streak of days without a finals win, which currently numbers 6,187 days? Anything is possible.
BEST CASE: Finish 7th if they beat Collingwood and Carlton defeats GWS.
WORST CASE: Finish 11th if they lose to Collingwood and West Coast defeats Brisbane and Fremantle defeats St Kilda and Richmond beats Hawthorn and Richmond overcomes a 9.4 percentage deficit on Essendon.
PREDICTED FINISH: 8th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $26
9. WEST COAST
Record: 10-11, 94.9%
R23: Brisbane (L)
WE SAY: On paper, the Eagles still look a good side. But the reality is they are a shell of the team they have been in recent years and won’t be playing finals this year. Even with huge stakes in the WA derby against Fremantle on Sunday, West Coast failed to fire on their way to a 15-point loss that made for three-straight defeats. The Eagles have won four of their last 12 games in a woeful second half of the season and things need to change if they are to challenge for a finals spot in 2022.
BEST CASE: Finish 7th if they beat Brisbane and Carlton defeats GWS.
WORST CASE: Finish 11th if they lose to Brisbane and Fremantle defeats St Kilda and Richmond defeats Hawthorn.
PREDICTED FINISH: 9th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $81
10. FREMANTLE
Record: 10-11, 89%
R23: St Kilda (L)
WE SAY: The Dockers got bragging rights back with their first win over West Coast since 2015 in the WA derby on Sunday and are still some chance of playing finals if things fall their way. The reality is that is highly unlikely, though. They face a St Kilda side this week that has had a better second half of the season and that game is on the road in Melbourne. Fremantle’s poor percentage also does not help its chances of sneaking into the top-eight even if it were to upset the Saints.
BEST CASE: Finish 7th if they beat St Kilda and Carlton defeats GWS and Collingwood defeats Essendon and Brisbane defeats West Coast.
WORST CASE: Finish 12th if they lose to St Kilda and Richmond defeats Hawthorn.
PREDICTED FINISH: 11th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $101
11. RICHMOND
Record: 9-12, 97.8%
R23: Hawthorn (L)
WE SAY: The Tigers will fight out the year, but the king is dead. The reigning premiers have lost their edge and might even lose to the 14th placed Hawthorn this weekend given the way things have been going. Richmond has won just two of its past nine games in what has been a highly disappointing season and a 39-point loss to GWS last Friday night was the final nail in the coffin. Hawthorn might still be below Richmond on the ladder, but it has won its past three games including upsets against top-five sides Western Bulldogs and Brisbane.
BEST CASE: Finish 8th if they beat Hawthorn and Brisbane defeats West Coast and Collingwood defeats Essendon and St Kilda defeats Fremantle and Richmond overcomes a 9.6 percentage point deficit on Essendon which equates to a swing of about 150 points in margins between the two games.
WORST CASE: Finish 12th if they lose to Hawthorn and St Kilda defeats Fremantle.
PREDICTED FINISH: 12th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: N/A
12. ST KILDA
Record: 9-12, 88%
R23: Fremantle (W)
WE SAY: The Saints were far from disgraced against Geelong on Saturday and have played some much better footy over the second half of the year. Mathematically, they are still the slimmest of finals chances, but in reality it’s all over. Finishing the year on a positive note with a win over the Dockers would be nice, though.
BEST CASE: Finish 8th if they beat Fremantle and Brisbane defeats West Coast and Hawthorn defeats Richmond and St Kilda makes up a 19.2 percentage point deficit on Essendon which equates to a swing of about 335 points of margins between the two games.
WORST CASE: Finish 13th if they lose to Fremantle and Carlton defeats GWS.
PREDICTED FINISH: 10th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: N/A
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