Run Home: Every club’s final four weeks analysed, predicted ladder

Four points separate second and seventh on the ladder – who will make top four and who falls out. Plus is the top eight decided? We review your club’s run home.

Geelong is on track to claim the minor premiership this year. Picture: Getty Images

Just four weeks remain in the AFL home-and-away season and the ladder could not be much tighter.

Only two games separate first from seventh and two points separate eighth from tenth.

We’ve taken a look at every club’s run home to see what the first week of finals could look like.

1. GEELONG (14-4, 135.1%)

TAB ODDS: Premiers: $3, Top 8: N/A, Top 4: $1.01

R20: Western Bulldogs (GMHBA) W

R21: St Kilda (GMHBA) W

R22: Gold Coast (Metricon) W

R23: West Coast (GMHBA) W

Predicted finish: 1st

Chris Scott’s Cats are already riding a nine-game winning streak, which could well reach 13 matches by the end of the home and away season. Geelong faces only one more current top-eight team in the Western Bulldogs this week. Three of Geelong’s final four games are at home, where it has gone 5-1 this season and has won 42 of its past 50 games overall. Star defender Tom Stewart is available to return from suspension this week in another major boost. It’s still July, but the Cats are a clear premiership frontrunner as it stands.

Tom Hawkins has played a key role in Geelong’s nine-game winning streak. Picture: Getty Images

2. MELBOURNE (13-5, 128.8%)

TAB ODDS: Premiers: $3.50, Top 8: N/A, Top 4: $1.30

R20: Fremantle (Optus) L

R21: Collingwood (MCG) L

R22: Carlton (MCG) W

R23: Brisbane (Gabba) W

Predicted finish: 5th

The reigning premiers have the wobbles and you have to say the Demons are now in some danger of missing the top-four. In the final four rounds, Melbourne faces four current top-eight sides. The Demons might have 13 wins on the board, but most of those have come from beating up on struggling sides in the bottom half of the ladder. Against current top-eight sides, they have the worst record of any of the contenders at 2-5. Simon Goodwin’s side has now won just three of its past eight matches and has already suffered losses this season to their next two opponents — Fremantle and Collingwood. On Saturday night, they conceded 110 points to the Western Bulldogs — the most points the Melbourne defence had leaked since Round 3, 2019. There is still time to get things right, but there are some worrying signs.

3. BRISBANE LIONS (13-5, 125.5%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $10, Top 8: N/A, Top 4: $1.40

R20: Richmond (MCG) L

R21: Carlton (Gabba) W

R22: St Kilda (Marvel) W

R23: Melbourne (Gabba) L

Predicted finish: 6th

The Lions are just going at the moment. Since an 8-1 start to the season, they have gone 5-4 and they had to mount a final-quarter fightback to topple Gold Coast by 17 points at the Gabba on Saturday night. Brisbane will have its work cut out against Richmond this week. Don’t forget that the one and only time the Lions have ventured to the MCG this year — for a clash with Melbourne in Round 15 — they copped a 64-point belting. Given that result, it is also hard to tip them in a rematch with the Demons in Round 23. If Brisbane only scores two more wins, it will likely miss the top-four. But if it can pinch a third victory, second place is there for the taking.

Jamie Elliot’s matchwinning goal against Essendon has given Collingwood a very real chance of a top-four finish. Picture: Mark Stewart

4. COLLINGWOOD (13-5, 106.2%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $15, Top 8: $1.01, Top 4: $3

R20: Port Adelaide (MCG) W

R21: Melbourne (MCG) W

R22: Sydney (SCG) L

R23: Carlton (MCG) W

Predicted finish: 3rd

Top-four Pies? Collingwood fans are dreaming as much, after an incredible ninth-straight win over Essendon on Sunday. The self-belief in the Magpies’ playing group is admirable and has the potential to take them a long way this season. They sit fourth on the ladder for now, but to stay there and earn the finals double chance they are going to need three more wins from a tough run home. Collingwood will start favourites against Port Adelaide this week and has already beaten Melbourne and Carlton this season, so three more wins is entirely possible. Jordan De Goey’s return from a quad injury this week should help that cause. Dare to dream.

5. FREMANTLE (12-5-1, 119.7%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $16, Top 8: N/A, Top 4: $1.70

R20: Melbourne (Optus) W

R21: Western Bulldogs (Marvel) L

R22: West Coast (Optus) W

R23: GWS (Manuka) W

Predicted finish: 4th

One of the bolters in the first half of the season, the Dockers have dropped off the boil a little bit since the bye. They have scored just two wins and a draw from their past five matches, but face a relatively favourable final four weeks. A clash with Melbourne on Friday night will be key to Fremantle’s double-chance hopes. Beat the Demons and the Dockers should finish top-four. But if they drop that match, they are unlikely to finish top-four – even if they do win their final three matches.

Sydney has some serious firepower in attack, including Lance Franklin. Picture: Getty Images

6. SYDNEY (12-6, 121.9%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $8, Top 8: N/A, Top 4: $1.40

R20: GWS (SCG) W

R21: North Melbourne (Marvel) W

R22: Collingwood (SCG) W

R23: St Kilda (Marvel) W

Predicted finish: 2nd

The Swans might sit sixth on the ladder, but they sit third in the premiership betting markets – and with good reason. Sydney has a relatively friendly fixture in the final four weeks which should have them launching into the top-four with a head of steam heading into finals. The Swans showed the damage they can do with the ball against Adelaide on Saturday as they booted nine goals in a sizzling opening term on the way to a 33-point win. That was a fourth victory in five weeks for John Longmire’s side, which is a lock to win its next two games and should also be too good for Collingwood and St Kilda to finish the home-and-away campaign.

7. CARLTON (12-6, 115.5%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $16, Top 8: $1.05, Top 4: $5.50

R20: Adelaide (AO) W

R21: Brisbane (Gabba) L

R22: Melbourne (MCG) L

R23: Collingwood (MCG) L

Predicted finish: 8th

The Blues did what they needed to do against GWS on Sunday, but were not overly convincing in a 36-point triumph. They should prove too good for Adelaide this week, but then comes a tough final three games in the lead-up to finals. Carlton has only a 3-3 record against current top-eight teams this season, so it is hard to see the Blues winning three or four games in the final month to secure a top-four finish.

The Western Bulldogs are right back in the finals race. Picture: Mark Stewart

8. WESTERN BULLDOGS (10-8, 111.9%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $21, Top 8: $1.80, Top 4: $101

R20: Geelong (GMHBA) L

R21: Fremantle (Marvel) W

R22: GWS (Marvel) W

R23: Hawthorn (UTAS) W

Predicted finish: 7th

After consecutive losses to Brisbane (41 points) and Sydney (53 points) in Rounds 16 and 17, we all thought the Bulldogs were cooked this year. How things have turned since then. Luke Beveridge’s side backed up a 28-point win over St Kilda in Round 18 with an upset 10-point triumph over reigning premier Melbourne on Saturday night and have been wound in from $67 to $21 for the premiership in the space of a week. Three more wins should be enough for the Bulldogs to hold on to their current top-eight spot and you would back them to achieve that on current form.

9. ST KILDA (10-8, 103.6%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $101, Top 8: $5.50, Top 4: $101

R20: Hawthorn (Marvel) W

R21: Geelong (GMHBA) L

R22: Brisbane (Marvel) L

R23: Sydney (Marvel) L

Predicted finish: 12th

The Saints kept themselves in the finals hunt with a 28-point win over West Coast on Sunday, but it was not the percentage-booster they would have been hoping for. St Kilda still has the worst percentage of any of the top 11 sides and also has arguably the toughest run home. The Saints have gone 3-6 against current top-eight sides this year and face three top-six teams in the final three weeks, plus a dangerous Hawthorn. Better luck next year.

10. RICHMOND (9-8-1, 114.5%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $26, Top 8: $2.40, Top 4: $151

R20: Brisbane (MCG) W

R21: Port Adelaide (AO) L

R22: Hawthorn (MCG) W

R23: Essendon (MCG) W

Predicted finish: 9th

Cue the jokes about Richmond finishing ninth, because it looks like happening again. After the past three weeks, the Tigers don’t deserve to play finals this year. It looks the end of an era. They will get key forward Tom Lynch back from injury this week, which will help strengthen a struggling forward line. However, Richmond would likely have to win all four matches from here to make the finals cut. The Western Bulldogs’ upset win over Melbourne on Saturday night was a dagger in the hearts of Tigers fans, who had watched their side somehow find a way not to win against Fremantle 24 hours earlier.

Noah Balta’s Richmond side would likely need to win every game from here to make the finals cut after Friday night’s draw with Fremantle. Picture: Mark Stewart

11. PORT ADELAIDE (8-10, 105.4%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $151, Top 8: $16

R20: Collingwood (MCG) L

R21: Richmond (AO) W

R22: Essendon (Marvel) W

R23: Adelaide (AO) W

Predicted finish: 11th

The Power were very good in a ripping game against Geelong on Saturday, but ultimately suffered a 12-point loss which they couldn’t afford. Port mathematically remain in the finals race, but would have to win their final four matches, boost their percentage and rely on a raft of other results.

12. GOLD COAST (8-10, 103.2%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $151, Top 8: $34

R20: West Coast (Metricon) W

R21: Hawthorn (UTAS) W

R22: Geelong (Metricon) L

R23: North Melbourne (Marvel) W

Predicted finish: 10th

Like Port Adelaide, the Suns are still a mathematical finals chance, but it won’t be happening this year for Stuart Dew’s side. However, if Gold Coast can win three more games it would make for 11 wins and the best season in the club’s history. That would be something to hang their hat on heading into a 2023 season where star key forward Ben King returns.