Run Home: Every AFL club’s last 10 weeks, final predicted ladder

Carlton produced its best performance in months against Gold Coast before heading to the bye. Are the Blues back, or in for a rude shock? See where they sit on our predicted ladder.

Could Carlton emerge as a finals contender in the last nine weeks? Picture: Michael Klein

Only 10 weeks remain in the AFL home-and-away season as the race towards finals heats up.

We’ve taken a look at every team’s run home to try and find out what the final eight might look like come the end of August.

1. PORT ADELAIDE

Played: 14, Won: 12, Lost: 2, Points: 48, Percentage: 119.3

R15: Bye

R16: Essendon, MCG (W)

R17: Gold Coast, AO (W)

R18: Carlton, Marvel (W)

R19: Collingwood, AO (W)

R20: Adelaide, AO (W)

R21: Geelong, GMHBA (L)

R22: GWS Giants, AO (W)

R23: Fremantle, Optus (W)

R24: Richmond, AO (W)

Predicted Finish: 2nd (20-3)

The Power have already won 11 games on the trot and should be adding a few more to matches to that streak after their bye. Five of their last nine games are at home, where they have gone 7-1 this season. They also only face three more current top-eight teams. Ken’s men look primed to secure a top-two finish and who knows what could happen from there. This side has been the surprise packet of the season to date after placing 11th on the ladder in 2022.

Ken Hinkley’s Port Adelaide side has racked up 11-straight wins. Picture: Michael Klein

2. COLLINGWOOD

Played: 13, Won: 11, Lost: 2, Points: 44, Percentage: 135.1

R15: Adelaide, MCG (W)

R16: Gold Coast, HBS (W)

R17: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (W)

R18: Fremantle, MCG (W)

R19: Port Adelaide, AO (L)

R20: Carlton, MCG (W)

R21: Hawthorn, MCG (W)

R22: Geelong, MCG (W)

R23: Brisbane, Marvel (W)

R24: Essendon, MCG (W)

Predicted Finish: 1st (20-3)

The Magpies unusually lost a close game against Melbourne before their bye, but have a reasonable run over the next month with none of their next four games being against current top-six teams. If both teams keep up their form, the clash against the Power in Round 19 could be key to deciding who takes out the minor premiership. That match at Adelaide Oval is one of only two remaining road trips for Collingwood. The Magpies’ last three games of the home-and-away look like being against teams who will be fighting it out in September, providing a good test run heading into finals.

3. MELBOURNE

Played: 13, Won: 9, Lost: 4, Points: 36, Percentage: 132.3

R15: Geelong, GMHBA (W)

R16: GWS Giants, TIO (W)

R17: St Kilda, Marvel (W)

R18: Brisbane, MCG (W)

R19: Adelaide, MCG (W)

R20: Richmond, MCG (W)

R21: North Melbourne, BA (W)

R22: Carlton, MCG (W)

R23: Hawthorn, MCG (W)

R24: Sydney, SCG (W)

Predicted Finish: 3rd (19-4)

The Demons reminded us on King’s Birthday that their best footy is as good as anyone’s as they overcame fellow top-four side Collingwood. Chances are the Demons will let at least one game slip in the run home, but which one? Geelong will be a challenge this week, but they get the Cats at a good time. Melbourne’s only interstate trips remaining are against bottom-eight sides GWS, North Melbourne and Sydney.

Jacob van Rooyen’s Melbourne side is as capable of doing damage as any. Picture: Michael Klein.

4. BRISBANE LIONS

Played: 13, Won: 9, Lost: 4, Points: 36, Percentage: 119.6

R15: St Kilda, Marvel (W)

R16: Richmond, Gabba (W)

R17: West Coast, Gabba (W)

R18: Melbourne, MCG (L)

R19: Geelong, Gabba (W)

R20: Gold Coast, HBS (W)

R21: Fremantle, Optus (W)

R22: Adelaide, Gabba (W)

R23: Collingwood, Marvel (L)

R24: St Kilda, Gabba (W)

Predicted Finish: 4th (17-6)

The Lions aren’t exactly humming, having lost games against Adelaide and Hawthorn over the past three weeks. However, they have a reasonable run home. Brisbane still has five games to come at the Gabba, where it has gone 7-0 this season. Games on the road have been the problem, with the Lions’ interstate record sitting at 3-4 this season. That means a clash with St Kilda this Friday night is no gimme. But if the Lions can snag a win there at Marvel Stadium it should set them up for another top-four finish.

5. ST KILDA

Played: 13, Won: 8, Lost: 5, Points: 32, Percentage: 113.1

R15: Brisbane, Marvel (L)

R16: West Coast, Optus (W)

R17: Melbourne, Marvel (L)

R18: Gold Coast, HBS (L)

R19: North Melbourne, Marvel (W)

R20: Hawthorn, Marvel (L)

R21: Carlton, Marvel (W)

R22: Richmond, Marvel (L)

R23: Geelong, Marvel (L)

R24: Brisbane, Gabba (L)

Predicted Finish: 10th (11-12)

The Saints might be sitting fifth on the ladder now, but their spot in the top-eight looks highly vulnerable. Since a 4-0 start to the season, Ross Lyon’s side has been unable to string successive wins together and has gone 4-5 since. St Kilda still needs at least four more wins to lock in a finals berth but there aren’t that many you can pencil in. A loss to Brisbane this week would be a major blow. The Lions are one of four games that the Saints still have to come against current top-eight sides, while St Kilda has already suffered losses to lower-ranked sides Richmond and Hawthorn this year. The Saints are still right in the race, but there is much work to do.

St Kilda has regularly dropped the ball since a hot first month of the season. Picture: Michael Klein.

6. ESSENDON

Played: 13, Won: 8, Lost: 5, Points: 32, Percentage: 110.6

R15: Fremantle, Optus (W)

R16: Port Adelaide, MCG (L)

R17: Adelaide, Marvel (W)

R18: Geelong, GMHBA (L)

R19: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (W)

R20: Sydney, Marvel (W)

R21: West Coast, Marvel (W)

R22: North Melbourne, Marvel (W)

R23: GWS Giants, GS (W)

R24: Collingwood, MCG (L)

Predicted Finish: 5th (15-8)

Stop dreaming about September and start believing, because this young Bombers team is returning to finals this year. As long as Brad Scott’s side wins the games it should in the run home, it will hold on to fifth or sixth spot and therefore a home elimination final – which would be some turnaround after a 15th placed finish last year. Essendon plays only two teams who currently sit above it on the ladder in what is one of the competition’s easiest run homes.

7. WESTERN BULLDOGS

Played: 14, Won: 8, Lost: 6, Points: 32, Percentage: 102.9

R15: Bye

R16: Fremantle, Marvel (W)

R17: Collingwood, Marvel (L)

R18: Sydney, SCG (W)

R19: Essendon, Marvel (L)

R20: GWS Giants, Mars (W)

R21: Richmond, Marvel (L)

R22: Hawthorn, UTAS (W)

R23: West Coast, Marvel (W)

R24: Geelong, GMHBA (L)

Predicted Finish: 7th (13-10)

The Bulldogs should get to September, but will they merely be making up the numbers if they do? Luke Beveridge’s side has lost three of its past four matches and its record against the competition’s better teams is not good. From six games against fellow current top-eight teams this season, the Bulldogs have gone 2-4. The good news is there are only two games against current top-eight teams to come – against Collingwood and Essendon. However, matches against Richmond and Geelong won’t be easy, either.

The Western Bulldogs aren’t beating the better teams. Picture: Michael Klein.

8. ADELAIDE

Played: 13, Won: 7, Lost: 6, Points: 28, Percentage: 116.5

R15: Collingwood, MCG (L)

R16: North Melbourne, AO (W)

R17: Essendon, Marvel (L)

R18: GWS Giants, AO (W)

R19: Melbourne, MCG (L)

R20: Port Adelaide, AO (L)

R21: Gold Coast, AO (W)

R22: Brisbane, Gabba (L)

R23: Sydney, AO (W)

R24: West Coast, Optus (W)

Predicted Finish: 9th (12-11)

Adelaide’s best footy has been scintillating this season. The problem is, we haven’t seen much of it away from Adelaide Oval. The Crows have gone 6-2 at their home ground this season, but hold a woeful interstate record of 1-4. They still have five road trips to come in the last 10 weeks, as well as some tricky home matches against the likes of ladder-leader Port Adelaide and a competitive GWS. It might require 13 wins to make the finals cut, which means the Crows need six more. They would likely have to pull off an upset against one of the top-five sides. Adelaide is capable of that, but you wouldn’t bank on it just yet.

9. RICHMOND

Played: 14, Won: 6, Lost: 7, Drawn: 1, Points: 26, Percentage: 102.4

R15: Bye

R16: Brisbane, Gabba (L)

R17: Sydney, MCG (W)

R18: West Coast, Optus (W)

R19: Hawthorn, MCG (W)

R20: Melbourne, MCG (L)

R21: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (W)

R22: St Kilda, Marvel (W)

R23: North Melbourne, MCG (W)

R24: Port Adelaide, AO (L)

Predicted Finish: 8th (12-1-10)

Queue the ‘ninth’ jibes. But there is a very real possibility that a resurgent Richmond could climb to seventh or eighth spot by season’s end. Hear us out. The Tigers face five current top-eight sides in the run home, but have already beaten St Kilda this season and have been right in games against Melbourne (18-point loss), Western Bulldogs (five-point loss) and Port Adelaide (10-point loss). Richmond’s other four games are against the current bottom-four sides – Sydney, West Coast, Hawthorn and North Melbourne. So, if they bank those and pinch at least game against one of the better sides, they’re in.

Could Tim Taranto help lead Richmond to an unlikely finals berth? Picture: Michael Klein

10. GEELONG

Played: 13, Won: 6, Lost: 7, Points: 24, Percentage: 113.6

R15: Melbourne, GMHBA (L)

R16: Sydney, SCG (W)

R17: North Melbourne, GMHBA (W)

R18: Essendon, GMHBA (W)

R19: Brisbane, Gabba (L)

R20: Fremantle, GMHBA (W)

R21: Port Adelaide, GMHBA (W)

R22: Collingwood, MCG (L)

R23: St Kilda, Marvel (W)

R24: Western Bulldogs, GMHBA (W)

Predicted Finish: 6th (13-10)

The reigning premier has lost four of its past five games, but it certainly isn’t out of the finals race just yet. Belief remains high among the Cats’ playing group that they can turn their season around as they eye a string of home games at GMHBA Stadium in the run home. Geelong still has six games to come at a venue where it has won 42 of its past 50 games. If the Cats can win four of their next six games – as they should – they will be well placed heading into what will be a testing final month.

11. GWS GIANTS

Played: 14, Won: 6, Lost: 8, Points: 24, Percentage: 97

R15: Bye

R16: Melbourne, TIO (L)

R17: Hawthorn, GS (W)

R18: Adelaide, AO (L)

R19: Gold Coast, MO (W)

R20: Western Bulldogs, Mars (L)

R21: Sydney, GS (W)

R22: Port Adelaide, AO (L)

R23: Essendon, GS (L)

R24: Carlton, Marvel (L)

Predicted Finish: 13th (9-14)

The Giants won’t make the top-eight – they would likely need to win seven of their last nine games to do so – but they could certainly shake it up. The orange tsunami has returned this season and GWS has been a highly competitive outfit even if it has not been putting as many wins on the board as new coach Adam Kingsley would have liked. A 70-point thumping of Fremantle last weekend showed just how dangerous the Giants can be if you’re not on your game when you come up against them.

Toby Greene’s Giants are dangerous. Picture: Getty Images

12. GOLD COAST

Played: 13, Won: 6, Lost: 7, Points: 36, Percentage: 94.7

R15: Hawthorn, HBS (W)

R16: Collingwood, HBS (L)

R17: Port Adelaide, AO (L)

R18: St Kilda, HBS (W)

R19: GWS Giants, MO (L)

R20: Brisbane, HBS (L)

R21: Adelaide, AO (L)

R22: Sydney, SCG (W)

R23: Carlton, HBS (L)

R24: North Melbourne, BA (W)

Predicted Finish: 11th (10-13)

The Sun might have just set on Gold Coast’s finals hopes with a horror 59-point loss to Carlton on Sunday. At their best, the Suns have been a strong side this year. But the gap between their best and worst is still far too great. Stuart Dew’s side would likely need to win seven of its final 10 games to secure the club’s first ever September berth, which is simply not going to happen. They still face five top-eight teams in a tough run home. There have been some good signs at times, but it’s been another disappointing year overall.

13. FREMANTLE

Played: 13, Won: 6, Lost: 7, Points: 36, Percentage: 94.3

R15: Essendon, Optus (L)

R16: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (L)

R17: Carlton, Optus (W)

R18: Collingwood, MCG (L)

R19: Sydney, Optus (W)

R20: Geelong, GMHBA (L)

R21: Brisbane, Optus (L)

R22: West Coast, Optus (W)

R23: Port Adelaide, Optus (L)

R24: Hawthorn, MCG (L)

Predicted Finish: 14th (9-14)

Most experts expected the Dockers to be playing finals again this year, but they’re a long way off that. A 70-point loss to Greater Western Sydney on Saturday – a game in which Fremantle kicked just five goals – was embarrassing. Some home games in the run home should help secure a few more wins, but it hasn’t been a pretty year by any stretch for the purple haze.

It’s been a tough year for Fremantle. Picture: Getty Images

14. CARLTON

Played: 14, Won: 5, Lost: 8, Drawn: 1, Points: 22, Percentage: 98.1

R15: Bye

R16: Hawthorn, MCG (W)

R17: Fremantle, Optus (L)

R18: Port Adelaide, Marvel (L)

R19: West Coast, Marvel (W)

R20: Collingwood, MCG (L)

R21: St Kilda, Marvel (L)

R22: Melbourne, MCG (L)

R23: Gold Coast, HBS (W)

R24: GWS Giants, Marvel (W)

Predicted Finish: 12th (9-1-13)

Was Sunday’s thumping 59-point win over Gold Coast a turning point in Carlton’s season or an outlier? We won’t know for a couple of weeks until the Blues get back from the bye, but even if it was a turning point the Blues look to have left their run too late. They would need to win seven of their last nine games from here to make finals and still face three top-four sides in the run home. Michael Voss’ team is suddenly in with a sniff, but absolutely everything would have to go right.

15. SYDNEY

Played: 13, Won: 5, Lost: 8, Points: 20, Percentage: 98.3

R15: West Coast, SCG (W)

R16: Geelong, SCG (L)

R17: Richmond, MCG (L)

R18: Western Bulldogs, SCG (L)

R19: Fremantle, Optus (L)

R20: Essendon, Marvel (L)

R21: GWS Giants, GS (L)

R22: Gold Coast, SCG (L)

R23: Adelaide, AO (L)

R24: Melbourne, SCG (L)

Predicted Finish: 16th (6-17)

The struggling Swans face only one team below them on the ladder – West Coast – in a relatively tough run home. It’s been a fall from grace for last year’s runners’ up, but we know why. As much as the effort has been there most weeks, injuries have decimated Sydney since the early part of the season. They could well cause an upset or two in the run home, but a bottom-six finish looks assured.

Sydney has dropped from runner’s up to 15th on the ladder. Picture: Michael Klein

16. HAWTHORN

Played: 13, Won: 4, Lost: 9, Points: 16, Percentage: 78.5

R15: Gold Coast, HBS (L)

R16: Carlton, MCG (L)

R17: GWS Giants, GS (L)

R18: North Melbourne, Marvel (W)

R19: Richmond, MCG (L)

R20: St Kilda, Marvel (W)

R21: Collingwood, MCG (L)

R22: Western Bulldogs, UTAS (L)

R23: Melbourne, MCG (L)

R24: Fremantle, MCG (W)

Predicted Finish: 15th (7-16)

While they might sit bottom-three on the ladder, most teams wouldn’t necessarily want to be playing the Hawks in the run home. They have shown they can be dangerous, highlighted by wins against top-eight sides Brisbane (25 points) and St Kilda (10 points) over the past month. Sam Mitchell would be looking to at least equal his side’s eight-win tally from last year. That would take an upset or two, but you wouldn’t put it past the young Hawks.

17. NORTH MELBOURNE

Played: 14, Won: 2, Lost: 12, Points: 8, Percentage: 69.6

R15: Bye

R16: Adelaide, AO (L)

R17: Geelong, GMHBA (L)

R18: Hawthorn, Marvel (L)

R19: St Kilda, Marvel (L)

R20: West Coast, Optus (W)

R21: Melbourne, BA (L)

R22: Essendon, Marvel (L)

R23: Richmond, MCG (L)

R24: Gold Coast, BA (L)

Predicted Finish: 17th (3-20)

As competitive as they have been in recent weeks, the Kangaroos hold the competition’s longest current losing streak, having lost 12 games on the hop. They would rate themselves a chance of toppling Hawthorn in a few weeks’ time and would be circling round 20 in the calendar when they meet bottom-placed West Coast. Given the Eagles’ struggles, a wooden spoon doesn’t look likely this year. But there won’t be too many more wins to come, either.

North Melbourne has been competitive despite 12 straight losses. Picture: Michael Klein.

18. WEST COAST

Played: 13, Won: 1, Lost: 12, Points: 4, Percentage: 51.4

R15: Sydney, SCG (L)

R16: St Kilda, Optus (L)

R17: Brisbane, Gabba (L)

R18: Richmond, Optus (L)

R19: Carlton, Marvel (L)

R20: North Melbourne, Optus (L)

R21: Essendon, Marvel (L)

R22: Fremantle, Optus (L)

R23: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (L)

R24: Adelaide, Optus (L)

Predicted Finish: 18th (1-22)

Could the Eagles record a one-win season? It wouldn’t surprise one bit, given their form to date and a continuing injury crisis. West Coast hasn’t had a win since it toppled GWS by 19 points in round 2 and has an average losing margin this season of 64.3 points. It’s been another season from hell – an end to which can’t come quickly enough. The only good news amid the struggles is that No. 1 draft pick Harley Reid might be coming West Coast’s way in November.