AFL 2021: Where to next for next for star Lion Lachie Neale and what’s behind the trade bombshell
Family reasons are behind Lachie Neale considering a return to WA, but early indications are he’s weighing up honouring his Brisbane contract. Here’s why.
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Lachie Neale could still consider spending another season at Brisbane as the disastrous effects of Covid-19 emerged as the biggest contributing factor behind his desire to move back to Perth.
Neale and his pregnant wife, Jules, have been contemplating their future in Brisbane for most of the season despite Lions officials being blindsided by Sunday’s bombshell news linking him to Fremantle.
It is understood the pair are concerned that current Covid-19 restrictions across the country mean that Jules will remain without family support — outside friends and club staff — as she prepares for the impending birth of their first daughter.
During the trying and unpredictable home-and-away season the Brownlow medallist was away from Jules for weeks at a time, a scenario that has only strengthened her desire to be around family and friends in Perth.
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Neale was accused of being a “manipulator” on Tuesday after attempting to extricate himself from a front-ended deal that has seen him paid as much as $900,000 a season in the early years of his five-year contract.
But the two-time Lions best-and-fairest winner met with coach Chris Fagan, CEO Greg Swann and football boss Danny Daly on Monday and even suggested he might honour his contract.
If the Lions held him to his deal for next season there is every chance the Covid-19 situation in Australia would dramatically improve to allow their families regular interstate trips.
Geelong held back homesick midfielder Tim Kelly from a return to WA for an extra season in 2019 aware his contract value would only skyrocket.
But with Neale turning 29 in May there is the prospect of his value diminishing by the end of next year.
The Herald Sun reported on Tuesday if Neale did officially ask for a trade in coming days, the Lions would not hold him back but would push Fremantle for an exceptional trade package given he is in contract.
It came as former Hawthorn forward Ben Dixon told Fox Footy the Lions should hold their nerve with Neale and refuse to trade him.
“The Lions aren’t going to give away an A-grade player to Fremantle? Are you kidding? That’s just not going to happen,” Dixon said.
“If I was in the chair, unless I got what I wanted, he’s staying exactly where he is.
“You don’t want to play ball, Fremantle? No problem, West Coast might want to and give up a first rounder or two for him.
“He’s leaving a premiership window, so it’s not about premierships. Fremantle aren’t quite there yet. If this deal doesn’t fall in Brisbane’s favour, I’m sorry to say, but you’re stuck in Queensland. Like it or lump it, you’re playing for the Brisbane Lions, because they moved heaven and earth to get you and they gave you five years. That is it, full stop.”
Brisbane legend Jonathan Brown confirmed on Monday the Lions would not stand in Neale’s way.
“If Lachie Neale does come back to them in a few days’ time and says, ‘definitely we want to move back home’, they’ll give him the opportunity to,” Brown told Fox Footy.
“But it’ll (need to) be a win for the Lions. They will request heavy compensation, and if they don’t get that compensation, Lachie will have to get his head around staying with Jules.
“They’ll provide the amount of support and hopefully the vaccination situation changes in Australia.
“Being a WA girl, that has obviously clearly affected it and would’ve contributed to the decision.
“The fact that she can’t get home and see her family, haven’t really been able to go out and socialise much — they would be contributing factors.”
Trade bombshell: Who could replace Neale at Lions?
How do you knock back the prom queen?
When Lachie Neale, resident Brownlow medallist and All Australian superstar, wants to return to your club how do you even consider saying thanks but no thanks?
Neale’s meeting with Brisbane on Monday 12 hours after it emerged he wanted out will surely set in train the wheels for an official trade request.
At first blush, throwing Neale back into the Fremantle midfield offers up a world of magnificent possibilities.
Like Nathan Fyfe as a 75-25 forward-mid (yips dependent), like ruckman Sean Darcy at the top of his game with Neale, Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong dominating as the starting centre-square quartet.
What is not to like about winning games of football?
But as the dust settled on Brisbane’s 24 hours from hell — straight sets defeat with the trade request kicker from your best player — it was apparent Brisbane wasn’t the only one blindsided by Neale’s request.
As much as Neale might very well end up again at Fremantle, the uncomfortable question is this: does trading out a 21-year-old in Adam Cerra for a player set to turn 29 in May actually help the Dockers win a premiership?
Because after all, Fremantle is past the stage of winning games so their coach doesn’t get sacked and is surely in the premiership business after 27 fruitless seasons.
Neale’s 600 possessions and 100 clearances next season will put the 10-win Dockers on the brink of finals next year.
But while the Dockers are understood to have spoken to Neale in recent weeks, their list boss David Walls has for some time been spruiking their determination to get back into the draft when they orchestrate a deal for the departing Cerra.
If the Dockers are honest with themselves, they will know their premiership window is as far as three to five seasons away, despite battle-hardened veterans such as Michael Walters (30), Fyfe (29) and Rory Lobb (28).
They are considering moving on 29-year-olds, not bringing them in.
They aren’t even at the stage of Richmond in 2013-15 — losing a trio of elimination finals. Or Brisbane in the past three years — taking their finals lumps before truly entering premiership contention.
The core of their list is the young emerging stars — Caleb Serong (20), Andrew Brayshaw (21), Darcy (23), Heath Chapman (19), Liam Henry (20), Hayden Young (20) along with mid-20s players Luke Ryan (25) and Alex Pearce (26).
So trade Cerra for Carlton’s pick six, then take six and their own eight to the draft, and there is suddenly an awesome stockpile of under-22 talent.
As former Fremantle captain Matthew Pavlich said on Monday, if they do trade for Neale it will be on their terms and with football boss Peter Bell using all his tricks to minimise the cost.
“You make sure you get the deal done, but it can’t be at all costs,” Pavlich told SEN in Western Australia.
“It needs to be in the broader context of your list management profile and plan. Lachie’s a bit older than he was when he left three or four years ago. How many more years has he got?
“What are we paying him? What are we giving to get him back?”
Surveying a host of list and player management types, the familiar refrain was that this might only be the start in coming years of players keen to return to home states given Covid-19-related issues.
But many suggested the Lions should simply hold their nerve and refuse to trade Neale.
As they put it, trade requests are to be worked through methodically and over many months, not dumped on a club just weeks before the official trade period kicks off.
But Brisbane must have known it was going to lose someone along the way given they have benefited from every legal trick in the book to brilliantly establish a list.
They lured Neale north at the peak of his powers, surely aware it did seem unusual he would be keen to move across the country away from a star-studded midfield playing Robin to Nat Fyfe’s Batman.
They have dragged Charlie Cameron north while contracted for “compassionate reasons”, they have used their brilliant injury management to secure Nakia Cockatoo and Lincoln McCarthy, they played the beautiful game of free agency poker to get Joe Daniher north.
It couldn’t last forever.
They just might never have guessed it would be to their best player.
So if they are to relent and release Neale, they have to find a way to win out of it.
The feeling is that Luke Parker would still like to stay at Sydney despite their low-ball offer, so suggesting he simply lob at a club that suits his age profile and prolific gifts is a little like pinning the tail on the donkey.
But Parker is perhaps the only free agent on the market that suits Brisbane and they have the cap space and premiership window to consider him.
Everyone can be a draft expert, but taking Fremantle’s pick 8 and 6 (after securing it from Carlton in a deal for Adam Cerra) and giving back their own 14 would be a best-case scenario.
So Brisbane’s starting point at the draft period could be 6, 8 and 18 (Melbourne’s pick acquired last year).
Under Chris Fagan’s utopia securing Parker as a free agent and maximising their draft hand would allow them to actually win from this scenario.
But more likely they will have to pony up those Neale picks to offer for Tom Mitchell or Jaeger O’Meara, or take them to the draft with the realisation they are further from a flag than in the past two seasons.
Fremantle was set on its path and Brisbane was a flag contender.
Now both will scramble for coming weeks to take advantage of Neale’s decision when the reality is him staying put was the best outcome for both parties.
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