Wreck It Ralph: The seven burning trade issues of 2024 trade week
Bailey Smith’s future is footy’s worst kept secret, but it also presents the Bulldogs with an opportunity to take a big risk. JON RALPH tackles the seven biggest hottest trade topics.
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Four picks in the first ten.
It’s the only way the Tigers can extricate some semblance of a positive from what shapes as a list exodus only four years after the third premiership in four seasons.
As the dust settles on the best home-and-away season in recent memory, 10 clubs are still licking their wounds as Carlton fell backwards into the eight.
But a combination of events across the weekend means Richmond has never had a better chance to cash in, maximising the return as Liam Baker, Shai Bolton and Dan Rioli as they jump ship for clubs they hope will be in finals contention.
As those 10 clubs instantly attempt to improve their lists, here are the Wreck It Ralph trade musings as the wheat is sorted from the chaff after 24 weeks of football.
1. PULL THE TRIGGER
Richmond has to pull the trigger on deals for Shai Bolton, Liam Baker and Daniel Rioli.
Not just because Rioli and Baker will want to leave in 12 months anyway if the Tigers hold firm, but because of the draft hands held by their pursuers.
On the current draft order the Suns have pick six and the Dockers have picks nine and 10.
Richmond should hold firm – the only way the Suns get Rioli is if that pick is involved.
Not two late first-rounders which will blow out to the late 20s.
Is he worth it on true value? No.
But here is the play – if you want our line-breaking, goalkicking star after a year in which Damien Hardwick talked up finals but the Suns flopped again, the only way to get him is with pick 6.
Think about Hardwick’s plight if he misses on Rioli and endures another so-so season next year.
Last year Richmond held the line on Ivan Soldo until the Power gave up pick 41 and a future second-rounder (attached to Fremantle) and a fourth rounder.
If the Tigers have to throw in something to help the Suns secure match points for next year’s No. 1 prospect Zeke Uwland, than so be it.
But that’s the price.
Meanwhile the Dockers’ flop to lose the final four games of the year and miss finals only intensifies their need for Bolton.
So the Tigers hold firm for picks nine and 10 for Bolton.
If they play their cards right, they get picks 1 (their own pick), six (for Rioli), nine and 10 (for Bolton).
Then they get a mid-teens pick from West Coast for Liam Baker (when the Hawks hand it over for Tom Barrass) and with pick 21 in their keeping, they have four picks within 10 and six within 21.
It’s the only way to reshape their list.
2. FOOTY’S WORST-KEPT SECRET
Bailey Smith is going to the Cats.
But the Cats are keen on securing more than one experienced midfielder to bolster their onball unit.
What about Jackson Macrae?
The issue is three more years on a lucrative contract around $700,000 a year, but as much as he has played 17 games this year, Ryley Sanders will cut into his midfield minutes next year.
The word in list management circles is that the Cats want to bring in multiple players of experience to bolster this list.
3. SHOOT FOR THE MOON
The Dogs are about to secure a first-round pick from the Cats for Bailey Smith.
Why wouldn’t they offer it to the Power for Dan Houston?
We are about to see how critical the suspended Houston’s absence is given Kane Farrell is also hamstrung and likely to miss the first final.
But clubs have a chance to offer picks for his services given the Power seem keen to get his cap space off their books as they chase Harry Perryman, Isaac Cumming and even Jack Lukosius.
With Liam Jones 34 in February and Sam Darcy more likely to emerge as a key forward and ruckman, the Dogs can afford to hand over a first-rounder for a player like 27-year-old Houston.
The next five years of his career should coincide with the Dogs window.
The Power might want more for Houston but it remains to be seen if getting his cap space off the books is just as important as getting back into the first round of a quality draft.
4. HOW PETRACCA CAN LEAVE DEES
Christian Petracca might get his way and complain so much the Demons grant him a trade request.
But according to everyone at Melbourne – CEO Gary Pert, coach Simon Goodwin, football boss Alan Richardson – he’s going nowhere.
So if we accept that at face value and believe he will be at Melbourne next year, he is making it hard for his own club to recruit players who might help Petracca win his second premiership.
If he has legitimate beefs and wants them addressed, far be it for us to suggest he shouldn’t lobby the club privately and publicly to get their act together.
But there will come a time where it is counter-productive.
As the Demons chase Dan Houston and Jake Waterman, the continued publicity surely scares that pair off from Melbourne.
Richardson told Fox Footy on Friday that getting even younger as the Demons lose Alex Neal-Bullen (and after Angus Brayshaw’s forced retirement) would be a “recipe for failure.”
So the Demons have cap space, the inclination to get better and pick five.
But until Petracca clarifies his stance, why would anyone come to Melbourne when their best player makes it so clear he is off the joint?
He might force a trade from the Demons, but if he doesn’t he might also have to stay with a diminished list that saw Houston scared off by talk of a Melbourne side in shambles.
5. JOSH BATTLE NEEDS TO DEMAND MORE CASH
Not for his financial future, but so everyone wins.
The worst possible scenario for St Kilda is that he leaves for Hawthorn but the trigger for a first-round compensation pick isn’t reached.
It means the Saints get left with a pick that will end up close to pick 30 for a star defender.
Any pick in this draft is good, the end of first round Roos pick ended up at Carlton and became Ashton Moir, who grows by the week.
But the solution is this: show me the money.
Battle is entitled to ask Hawthorn to offer him a contract worthy of that first-round trigger.
Then everyone goes home happy.
It might be the difference of less than $100,000 a year – which to be frank is chicken feed for the Hawks.
If the difference was between securing Battle on $850,000 a year and losing him to St Kilda on $925,000-$950,000, the Hawks would pay that money in a heartbeat.
Roos fans were happy to lose Ben McKay if they secured pick three.
Battle can find a way so everyone has their cake and eats it, even if he has to ask the Hawks for a pay rise on his current offer.
6. SOMEONE HAS TO TAKE RESPONSIBILITY
If Elijah Tsatas gets traded over the off-season at Essendon, someone should get sacked.
Taking him as the No. 5 draft pick – aware he wasn’t a great kick – then trading him two years later as a result of poor disposal would be diabolic.
It’s why the Dons won’t entertain any trades, aware he’s worked hard on his disposal in the past 10 weeks.
Of all the players in the AFL who turned poor disposal into something elite, Brent Stanton stands out.
Tsatas can become that type of player with hard work.
7. MORE BAD NEWS FOR ROOS
Imagine Luke Parker leaving Sydney for North Melbourne.
Sydney figures would be surprised if Parker left given he is contracted, has been in Sydney since he was 18 and has a successful business renovating houses with his wife.
But from a football perspective why would he go from a club at the top of the ladder to one where he will be in starvation corner?
If he isn’t able to make enough money to retire comfortably after 15 seasons in footy (including 2025) he isn’t trying.
Again on the weekend we saw Parker getting brilliant delivery and the Roos battling for respectability.
It is why the Roos will continue to battle to secure experienced types, with Nathan Broad the latest premiership players to reject North Melbourne.
He was offered a lucrative two year deal with a trigger (and could probably have held out for three years) but still stayed at the Tigers.
Dylan Stephens averaged 12.8 disposals in his first year at the Roos and Zac Fisher racked it up but was only an average kick by Champion Data measures in his first year of a long-term deal.
It’s bloody hard playing in a bottom-three side.
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