Wreck It Ralph: The key list calls facing the Saints and how they land Liam Henry
Hunter Clark tried to leave the Saints in 2022, then managed the most games of his career this season, but should the Saints keep him? Jon Ralph answers the club’s big trade and list questions.
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Salary cap space is a weapon.
Clubs mostly use it to spend up on overpriced free agents or lock up megastars as rivals circle.
At St Kilda, the Saints could take the opposite approach and pay established players to play elsewhere to help their own premiership aspirations.
Say what?
Call it the Saints getting in early on pick purchasing – a list mechanism the league is considering to allow clubs with cap space to effectively hand that salary cap room to rivals to buy early picks.
Why in hell would they do that?
Because St Kilda needs to bring in established talent, like Fremantle wingman Liam Henry without compromising a full suite of draft picks.
And the only real trade collateral they would be prepared to offer up are players like Dougal Howard and Jack Billings, who have salary cap obligations that might dissuade rivals from considering trades.
Fremantle wingman Henry on Saturday chose St Kilda over Hawthorn given his ties to ex-Docker Brad Hill and his belief Ross Lyon could get the most out of him despite the strong impression Sam Mitchell made on the former No. 9 pick.
The problem for St Kilda is it desperately need to hang onto its picks.
Its solution to bringing in A grade midfield talent isn’t by handing over early selections for any of the gettable midfielders around – and there are plenty in Geelong’s Brandan Parfitt, Gold Coast’s Elijah Hollands, Collingwood’s Finlay Macrae and Brisbane’s Dev Robertson.
Paddy Dow makes a heck of a lot of sense as a player secured for very little trade collateral as an onball option averaging 6.3 clearances and 3.5 centre square clearances in his past six games.
As every St Kilda fans knows, the kids are the future in Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (pick 11), Mitch Owens (pick 33), Mattaes Phillipou (pick 10), Liam Stocker (pick 19 at Carlton) and Marcus Windhager (pick 47).
Cooper Sharman took a big step forward in the second half of the season and Anthony Caminiti might be something, even if he was subbed at half time as a late inclusion for Tim Membrey.
The Saints have picks 12, 31 and 50 and can’t lose them, especially when Phillipou and Wanganeen-Milera were taken in the top 12 as a comparison.
Manager Paul Connors is attempting to find a new home for Billings, but he has two years on a deal that owes him $500,000 or more per season.
As this masthead reported last week, Fremantle is keen for a pick between 15-25.
If a rival is baulking at Billings’ contract, surely the Saints could consider paying a chunk of that salary?
He still won’t guarantee a King’s ransom, but it could turn a trade using a third-round pick into a late second, and get closer to satisfying Fremantle on Henry.
The Dockers’ trade demand is an early ambit claim but, in the end, a late second-rounder might get it done.
In a week where Blake Acres showed exactly how the wing position can be played, Henry is exactly that hard-running, fleet-footed player who could one day grow into an elite wingman.
In 16 games this year, he averaged 20 possessions, 310 metres gained and 3.6 score involvements.
His best was spectacular – 32 possessions and 514 metres gained against Essendon – even if there are times where his risky kicking was a problem.
Against West Coast in round 3, he had five kicks for zero efficiency – two clangers, three ineffective – but one day in the not-too-distant future, he and Wanganeen-Milera could be carving it up on opposing wings for the Saints.
Ross Lyon knows he needs to “build out” the club’s midfield, aware Jack Steele fought a one-man war against the brilliant Giants’ onball unit.
But the finals berth gave him time to eschew quick fixes like giving away multiple first-rounders on a Tim Taranto type or throwing millions at a free agent.
So having delayed so many contracts to assess progress, what are the decisions St Kilda must make to progress in 2024?
1. Hunter Clark
North Melbourne came for him last year and St Kilda only baulked when Jordan De Goey stayed at Collingwood.
He played the most games in any year of his career in 2023 – 19 as a reasonable sample size – but kicked only four goals and went at only 58 per cent efficiency.
It is apparent he’s not going to realise his potential as a No. 7 pick.
His significant contract of over $500,000 expires this year, so if a rival was prepared to hand up a quality pick, the Saints can’t consider the pick they used to select him, when assessing his trade value.
He is 24, so he has time. But he’s a handy type, not a genuine match-winner, so the Saints should be open to offers.
2. Jade Gresham
Gresham played every game despite a quiet start to the year and played himself into reasonable form before a seven-tackle, 17 possession final where he didn’t hit the scoreboard.
He won’t trigger first-round compo elsewhere and St Kilda are keen to re-sign him so there’s still time to proceed on a new deal.
3. Nick Coffield
A second straight season where he didn’t play a game through injury.
A former pick 8 in the, admittedly modest, 2017 national draft, with Aaron Naughton taken behind him at pick 9, and Darcy Fogarty (pick 12), Zac Bailey (pick 15), Ed Richards (pick 16) also taken after him.
It’s hard to see how he fits into the back-six, given Jack Sinclair, Wanganeen-Milera and Jimmy Webster have the starting spots – but he has little trade currency.
A modest new deal?
4. Jack Billings
As Connors said recently, there is interest in the contracted Billings but not enough interest given his talent.
After three AFL games and eight VFL games this year, coming off a broken leg, it would be a leap of faith to believe he could be a match-winner elsewhere, which is why the Saints might have to sweeten the deal to move him on.
5. Dougal Howard
As this masthead revealed last month, St Kilda could consider off-loading Howard, whose deal has one more season worth up to $600,000.
Zaine Cordy has two more years left on his deal and is still only 26, so the Saints might believe they can play Cordy at half the price for similar output.
Cal Wilkie is a star, Josh Battle can play taller than his 193cm frame but Cordy doesn’t seem the long-term answer.
Cordy is only 26 but this year ranked poor for disposals, intercepts, intercept marks, spoils and was below average in one-on-one contests.
But he did have a strong last six weeks, keeping Jesse Hogan to one goal in the final, Joe Daniher to two goals in round 24, Tom Hawkins to two goals in round 23 and Tom De Koning to one goal in round 21.
Lyon might decide Cordy is this St Kilda team’s version of Zac Dawson – an unheralded, but very effective stopper.
6. Liam Stocker
Half back Stocker will sign a new deal after becoming a St Kilda success story, playing every game after being delisted by Carlton.
He was subbed into the final at half time but is exactly the kind of story Ross Lyon needs to repeat – no cost, high upside and a loyal member of his side.
7. Jimmy Webster
The former left-footed distributor turned into a lockdown defender in a role Ben Paton had usually assumed and did it with aplomb. At 30, he might only get a one-year deal.
8. Zak Jones
Jones will not get a repeat of the lucrative deal he signed to cross from Sydney, but his toughness in the contest is exactly what St Kilda needs next year.
He played only three full AFL games with quad and medial ligament issues and, at only 28, he is very much part of the solution. At his best, he adds real grit and a touch of class.
9. Dan McKenzie
Calf issues ruined his 2023 campaign and his deal expires this year.
He can play as a lockdown defender or a wingman but Lyon hasn’t seen what he is capable of. Would hope for another one-year deal, given he is only 27.
10. Ryan Byrnes
He played 20 games on the wing, averaging 17 possessions in a position Henry will hope to secure. At just 23, the Saints won’t get anywhere if they can’t develop role players like pick-52 Byrnes into players who make a more significant impact.
Others out of contract: Oscar Adams, Tom Campbell, Tom Highmore
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