Under/Over: Experts pick how many games your AFL team will win in 2024
The bookies have set the lines for every club’s win tally this year. Now, our experts have had their say on whether your club will exceed or fall short. See our predictions here.
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Will Essendon win at least 11 home and away games this season?
Can Carlton eclipse last year’s tally of 13 wins and a draw?
Are Adelaide a lock to win 13 games and qualify for finals?
Will the Gold Coast Suns rise under new coach Damien Hardwick?
Four of our footy experts have had their say on how many games each club will win this year, based on the Over/Under lines set by bookmaker TAB.
While there was consensus around some of the ‘locks’, there were split views on other sides.
ADELAIDE
TAB Odds: Over 12.5 wins $1.87, Under 12.5 wins $1.87
Expert picks: Over – 4
Chris Cavanagh – Over
Expect the Crows to play finals and to do that they are probably going to need 13 wins. Adelaide only won 11 matches last year, but did lose five games by six points or less. If they can snatch a couple more wins interstate, they’ll get there.
Josh Barnes – Over (lock)
I’m all in on the Crows this year and see them as a top-four contender. As Cav wrote, they almost got to 12.5 last year and that was including a bunch of near-losses — who could forget that phantom poster. Smash the over on this one.
Callum Dick – Over (lock)
Everything to say has already been said. The Crows underperformed in the win column last season comparable to their quality and even then should have made finals if not for an all-time howler. Would be surprised not to see them in September.
Scott Gullan – Over (lock)
Buy shares in the Crows now as they’re ready to make a leap. Were stiff not to play finals last year and the forward line has a scary look, despite the looming Riley Thilthorpe breakout delayed due to a pre-season knee injury.
BRISBANE LIONS
TAB Odds: Over 15.5 wins $2, Under 15.5 wins $1.75
Expert picks: Over – 4, Under – 1
CC – Over
Don’t see the Lions lying down this year after a four-point Grand Final loss. They won 17 regular season games last season, helped by a perfect 11-0 record at the Gabba. If they can do the same again at home, they only need five interstate wins to salute.
JB – Over
Across the last three years the Lions have won 17, 15 and 15 games. Generally you need at least 16 to make top four, and that’s where I have Brisbane again.
CD – Over (lock)
With the Gabba looming large as the toughest trip in footy, the Lions can almost bank 11 wins from the jump. Must be close to premiership favourites after upgrading a list that went within a straight kick of a flag. Even with the hardest draw in footy should still be a top two contender.
SG – Under
This might be completely off the mark but there is some history to show teams who lose heartbreak grand finals suffering a frustrating regression the next year. The Lions have been up a long time sooooooooo … won 17 games last year so only predicting two extra losses.
CARLTON
TAB Odds: Over 13.5 wins $1.75, Under 13.5 wins $2
Expert picks: Over – 4
CC – Over (lock)
Is it just me, or does this line feel a little low? The Blues recorded 13 wins and a draw in the home and away season last year and only look to be on an upward trajectory. Nine of those wins came in the final 10 rounds of last season as Michael Voss’ side got on a roll, before it also scored two September triumphs. All aboard the Navy Blue train in 2024.
JB – Over (lock)
Scrap the poor pre-season form. The Blues won nine games after round 13 last year and 13 in total, so surely they find enough to get the over here. Carlton even won 12 in 2022 so they should be pretty concrete in getting up near the 16-17 wins needed to make the top four.
CD – Over
This one feels almost like a gimme given the night and day difference we saw from Michael Voss’ side at the end of last season. So long as the Blues don’t reprise their poor start to 2023, they should eclipse the 13 wins.
SG – Over (lock)
This is a crazy line. The Blues were horrible for half a year and still got to 13 wins and one draw last year. Tipping they do live up to the hype and hover around the top four area which is plus 15 wins territory.
COLLINGWOOD
TAB Odds: Over 15.5 wins $2, Under 15.5 wins $1.75
Expert picks: Over – 4
CC – Over
You’d be brave to suggest the Magpies are going to take a dive this season. They won 18 home-and-away games last year and it’s hard to see Craig McRae letting a premiership hangover fester.
JB – Over
The Pies have gone 23-5 at the MCG under Craig McRae and have 14 games there this year. Simple maths on that gives them around 12 wins to start with, hard to see them not picking up another four throughout the year.
CD – Over
Easy to forget the Pies are only three seasons into the Craig McRae era. It’s scary to think there is still another level or two to reach but it could very well be the case. Factor in the MCG dominance and it’s hard to see the Pies going backwards this year.
SG – Over
Got out of jail a lot last year so karma says they won’t win as many close games again but in saying that getting to 16 wins – two less than last year – shouldn’t be an issue.
ESSENDON
TAB Odds: Over 10.5 wins $1.80, Under 10.5 wins $1.95
Expert picks: Over 1, Under – 3
CC – Over
Will the Bombers play finals? Probably not. Can they match or better their 11 wins last season? Probably. The competition’s easiest fixture helped Essendon last season, but development, recruits and a second pre-season under Brad Scott should help them this season.
JB – Under
One of the toughest calls on this list. I think Essendon will be better on the whole than last year but they had an easy draw and others around them should improve more. Doesn’t mean the Bombers are necessarily taking a backwards step.
CD – Under
Tough one to gauge given expected improvement for a side that won 11 last season. But their rivals have also improved, and with a slightly tougher fixture this year that makes it even more challenging. Will be surprised if they feature in September.
SG – Under
Can’t figure the Bombers out. Ben McKay and Jade Gresham will help but there is too much of a difference between their best and worst. Fear there might be more of the same this year.
FREMANTLE
TAB Odds: Over 9.5 wins $1.75, Under 9.5 wins $2
Expert picks: Over – 2, Under – 2
CC – Under
Not convinced the Dockers are going anywhere quickly. They were a long way off many of the better sides last season beat only one side who played finals — Sydney. Might be anchored to the bottom four this year.
JB – Under
Just don’t buy that the Dockers will bounce back enough to really threaten the top eight. They weren’t particularly close in a number of their losses last year and haven’t upgraded forward of centre.
CD – Over
It was a disappointing 2023 from the Dockers who failed to fire a shot against the top sides. But they still managed 10 wins, which is where I see them again this season.
SG – Over
Complete trainwreck last year after looking the part in the finals in 2022. Justin Longmuir is coaching for his career and with a rejuvenated Nat Fyfe back in the middle, they should improve on last year’s 10 wins.
GWS GIANTS
TAB Odds: Over 14.5 wins $2, Under 14.5 wins $1.75
Expert picks: Over – 2, Under – 2
CC – Under
Yes, they fell only one point short of eventual premier Collingwood in the preliminary final last year. But the Giants only won 13 games in the regular season and have a slightly tougher draw this year. A 15-win season might be a stretch.
JB – Over
In both 2021 and 2022 teams that finished fifth and sixth notched up 15 wins. The Giants know their style of play now and have had a relatively injury-free summer. Reckon they will be tough to beat.
CD – Over
Incredibly bullish about the Giants this season given what they were able to produce in the back end of 2023. Without the sluggish start of last year they would have been comfortably entrenched in the top four. That’s where they should be this year.
SG – Under
Were amazing in the finals and stiff not to play in the GF but they rode a wave of emotion and excitement during that September run. They will again be in the top four mix but still think they’re capable of some ups and downs which means 15 wins is unlikely.
GEELONG
TAB Odds: Over 11.5 wins $1.87, Under 11.5 wins $1.87
Expert picks: Over – 4 (all locks)
CC – Over (lock)
Hard to know what to think of the Cats. They had more than their fair share of injuries to key players last season and still scored 10 wins and a draw. It looks like the their premiership window is behind them, but they should still win 12-plus games given a favourable fixture.
JB – Over (lock)
Let’s say that 2023 was the aberration, not the start of the trend. The Cats still have a ripping side on paper and have a full slate of home games in front of a packed crowd. Geelong slipped in games against lesser opposition early last year, expect them to correct that and be right in the finals hunt again.
CD – Over (lock)
The Cats still boast a stacked list and with a much easier draw this season have no excuses not to bounce back after the 2023 aberration. With GMHBA now fully up and running, the Cattery could once again be a nightmare trip for visitors this season.
SG – Over (lock)
Ring your bank manager now as this is a complete lock. There were plenty of reasons for the Cats premiership hangover last year and while many have written them off, don’t fall for it as there is a steely confidence at KP of a bounce back season.
GOLD COAST
TAB Odds: Over 11.5 wins $1.87, Under 11.5 wins $1.87
Expert picks: Over – 2, Under – 4
CC – Over
Borderline call. But Champion Data says the Suns have the AFL’s easiest fixture in 2024, which includes double-up matches against both North Melbourne and West Coast. After nine wins last season, Gold Coast should be pushing for a finals debut under new coach Damien Hardwick.
JB – Under
Haven’t liked what I have seen from the Suns so far and it might take time to understand Damien Hardwick’s style. Expect them to be in the finals mix but they might struggle to beat the club best of 10 wins in a season.
CD – Under
This one hurts to say, but it looks like the Hardwick era may take some time to implement. The Suns could spring a GWS on us and come home with a wet sail, particularly given the soft draw, but it feels like Hardwick will need at least this season to get them up to speed.
SG – Over
Not sold on them making finals but winning an extra three games under new coach Damien Hardwick makes a lot of sense particularly with their cushy draw.
HAWTHORN
TAB Odds: Over 8.5 wins $1.87, Under 8.5 wins $1.87
Expert picks: Over – 1, Under – 3
CC – Under
The Hawks finished 16th with seven wins last season and I’m expecting them to similarly finish bottom-four this year, as much as there have been some good signs. The backline remains an issue. Season 2025 might be Hawthorn’s time to shine and return to finals.
JB – Under
I’m worried about the Hawks after they failed to fix their key defensive issues and picked up a bunch of injuries. Will Day being sidelined doesn’t help either. Sam Mitchell’s team is definitely headed in the right direction but these things aren’t always linear.
CD – Under
Injuries have already conspired to cruel the Hawks’ 2024 before a ball has even been kicked in anger. Hard to see them adding an extra two wins to their 2023 tally, even with some additions forward of centre.
SG – Over
There is something cooking at Hawthorn but again we’re only likely to see glimpses of it this year. Getting a couple of extra wins should be achievable and there will be games where they look like world-beaters.
MELBOURNE
TAB Odds: Over 14.5 wins $2.10, Under 14.5 wins $1.70
Expert picks: Over – 4
CC – Over
Keeping the faith in the Demons. They won 16 regular season games last season and lost their two finals by a combined margin of nine points. Tipping they’ll be right up there in or around the top-four again.
JB – Over
I went back and forth on the Dees but think they just get there. Melbourne has been a home-and-away wins machine in recent years and just know how to get it done.
CD – Over
Still think the Dees are a serious threat this season and have the fifth-easiest draw according to Champion Data which should help them get it done. Off-field issues aside, this is a club that knows how to win between March and August and should be at the pointy end once again.
SG – Over
While most think the seemingly endless amount of controversies will bury the Demons, I’m going the other way tipping it will galvanise the group who already are smarting after a straight sets finals exit.
NORTH MELBOURNE
TAB Odds: Over 5.5 wins $1.80, Under 5.5 wins $1.95
Expert picks: Over – 2, Under – 2
CC – Under
There are some exciting kids but there are also some gaping holes in the line-up – most notably in the key defence and ruck stocks. The Roos won three games last season, with two of those coming by under a goal. Hard to see them doubling that win tally this year.
JB – Over
North may have only scraped over the line in their wins but they also had five losses by under 10 points last year. Jumping up to six wins an ask but I think they can get there.
CD – Under
I really want to say Overs here, but that might just be wishful thinking. North should be a better side than last season, with Clarkson on board the whole way, but there are still gaping holes in this list.
SG – Over
The kids are very good, the full-forward is a jet and more time for Clarko over the summer adds up to some noticeable improvement. Will still be in the bottom four but will be singing the song a few more times than last year.
PORT ADELAIDE
TAB Odds: Over 13.5 wins $1.87, Under 13.5 wins $1.87
Expert picks: Over – 3, Under – 1
CC – Over
The Power should be clearing this hurdle easily. They do have one of the tougher fixtures, but this is a team that won 17 games last season and should only be strengthened by some off-season recruits. They’ll have their sights firmly on another top-four finish.
JB – Under
I’m not as bullish about the Power as Cav, and think while they will definitely be in the finals mix, they might just lob on 13 wins. They recruited like a premiership contender but didn’t really find anyone to move the needle.
CD – Over
Port looked a class below their finals rivals last season, but have still made a habit of stacking wins in the home and away. Don’t see them as a flag contender but should certainly be pushing top six at minimum.
SG – Over
Won 17 last year and not buying that Port are going to lose three more games this season. Recruited well to fill gaps in the off-season and their core is young and exciting so I’m backing Camperdown Ken to get it done again.
RICHMOND
TAB Odds: Over 9.5 wins $1.72, Under 9.5 wins $2.05
Expert picks: Under – 4
CC – Under
Always hard to know with a new coach in the chair, but the Tigers might be in for a tough transition year. Some of the talented kids who have lacked opportunities in recent years will get their chance to displace some of the ageing premiership heroes.
JB – Under
I have no idea about the Tigers. They still have genuine A-grade players in Dustin Martin, Shai Bolton and Tom Lynch. There are just so many questions about the unproven youngsters that I can’t back them in.
CD – Under
New coach, new faces and a list of A-Graders that are slowly getting older. It’s tough to get a gauge on the Tigers entering 2024, but you feel Yze will need this year to get his cards in order before embarking on a push back up the table.
SG – Under
Haven’t loved the pre-season of Tom Lynch, who holds the key to the Tigers. When you struggle that much over the summer, it’s hard to catch up during the season. While Dusty and Shai Bolton will have their moments, some hard yards are ahead of new coach Adem Yze.
ST KILDA
TAB Odds: Over 11.5 wins $1.87, Under 11.5 wins $1.87
Expert picks: Over – 1, Under – 3
CC – Under
I underestimated the Saints last year and this prediction could also come back to bite. But I just wonder if St Kilda overachieved when it made finals in 2023. The chasing pack of the Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, Essendon and Geelong could well jump them.
JB – Under
Tough call. Most people think the Saints overachieved last year but they should probably be better in 2024 after winning 13 games in Ross Lyon’s comeback year. Even with the wins, the game style last year needs some tweaking.
CD – Over
I think the Saints find their way to the cusp of the eight. Whether that’s in or out is tough to say. Champion Data says they have the second-easiest draw in the competition and they won 13 games last season. But also feel they overachieved in 2023.
SG – Under
Tough call this one but I’m tipping a honeymoon-over slide in Ross Lyon’s second year. There will be games where they’ll look electric at Marvel Stadium but there is a lack of overall class which worries.
SYDNEY
TAB Odds: Over 13.5 wins $1.95, Under 13.5 wins $1.80
Expert picks: Over – 1, Under – 3
CC – Under
I have the Swans squeezing into the top-eight, but they can do that without winning 14-plus games. Sydney finished eighth last season with 12 wins and a draw. I’m not sure they significantly improve on that.
JB – Over
Sydney may have won just 12 games last year but they made the grand final a year before and snagged 15 wins in 2021. John Longmire wins matches and the Swans should have improved their list on last year.
CD – Under
Injuries have struck the Swans midfield and there is still no key forward putting up his hand to replace Buddy Franklin as the focal point of the attack. They are definitely a finals force when fully fit, but with Parker and Mills out for the first few months of the season the Swans could be playing catch up.
SG – Under
There are many pumping up the Swans but injuries have already started to hit and not sold that the Logan McDonald-Joel Amartey combination will take them to the promised land. Grundy and Adams help but not sure it will be enough for a top four push.
WEST COAST
TAB Odds: Over 4.5 wins $1.80, Under 4.5 wins $1.95
Expert picks: Under – 4
CC – Under
Even if they do have a better run with injury, I’m not sure these Eagles win too many more games. Many of the big name players are past their prime and the kids will still need time. West Coast lost 17 games by 38 points or more last season, so they’re a fair way off.
JB – Under
History says someone has to go under 4.5 wins, given 2017 is the only year in the expansion era that the wooden spoon side won at least five matches. Surely West Coast has a better run of it on the injury front this year but they should still be easybeats.
CD – Under
Cav put it perfectly. Even with an improved run of injuries, this list is still threadbare top to bottom. The stars are another year older while the kids will need this season to get the ball rolling. Feels like another wooden spoon campaign for the Eagles.
SG – Under
Not sure even Harley Reid is going to be able to add a couple of more wins to what the pathetic Eagles served up last year. Most interest will be on how long the coach lasts before getting the flick.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
TAB Odds: Over 11.5 wins $1.75, Under 11.5 wins $2
Expert picks: Over – 4
CC – Over
The Bulldogs thought they had a top-four list last year and finished a disappointing ninth on the ladder. But after a summer of change, surely they better their 12 wins of 2023. If they go backwards there’s a major problem.
JB – Over
The Dogs hit the over last year and now enter 2024 with so much at stake to make the top-eight. It would be a disaster if they went under here. Can’t possibly trust them enough to make the Dogs a lock, though.
CD – Over
Simply cannot have another 2023. No side underperformed like the Dogs last season. This is a team that should be banging on the top four. If 12 wins is too high a watermark in 2024, then we have all been royally hoodwinked by the Dogs.
SG – Over
Have top-four talent and it sounds like the coach has got his mojo back which should flow onto the rest of the place. With Sam Darcy emerging as a freak, the Dogs will bounce back in a big way.
LOCKS
Chris Cavanagh: Carlton (over), Collingwood (over), Geelong (over),
Josh Barnes: Adelaide (over), Carlton (over), Geelong (over)
Callum Dick: Adelaide (over), Brisbane (over) Geelong (over)
Scott Gullan: Adelaide (over), Carlton (over), Geelong (over)
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