Deep Dive: Take a close look at where Richmond and St Kilda are at after a huge Friday night upset

With a top-four berth now surely beyond them, just where are the Tigers at? In a matter of days they could be outside the eight and big picture questions are on the way.

Marc McGowan

7 min read

June 26, 2021 - 7:12AM

News Corp Australia Sports Newsroom

Damien Hardwick looks dejected during his side’s shock loss to St Kilda. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

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The reality that Richmond’s stupendous reign at the peak of the AFL mountain will end at some point is increasingly coming into focus.

The confidence-fuelled Tiger Army can be forgiven for thinking the club’s golden run of three premierships in the past four years, including the last two, will continue unabated.

Damien Hardwick’s side has already overcome mass injuries to key players, a sloppy first half of the season and a series of controversies in this successful period, but something about this year seems different.

As Hardwick said after watching St Kilda hold Richmond to two goals in a 40-point triumph on Friday night: “Everything we’re doing at the moment is looking incredibly hard.”

The Tigers dominated the early going but now-familiar wastefulness going into attack left them largely unrewarded.

They mostly floundered, with their traditionally manic ball movement often stagnant and sometimes agonising to watch, owing to a disciplined Saints structure that made Richmond work every time it had the ball.

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Where are these Tigers really at? Picture: Michael Klein

In defence, it was the Tigers caught out by St Kilda surges, some of them splitting the yellow and black through the corridor and creating easier scoring opportunities.

Richmond was horribly inefficient with its own chances in front of goal, as the barely believable 2.10 scoreline hammered home. Even the legendary Dustin Martin ended the night regretful.

The desperation edge was in the Saints’ favour, too. There were two moments early in the second term that illustrated Brett Ratten’s men were in this one for the long haul.

Jimmy Webster put his body on the line in an aerial contest that saw him wear a Callum Coleman-Jones knee to his back, then the maligned Bradley Hill soon after won the ball back at ground level with pure persistence.

“We are off the pace at the moment, there’s no doubt about that,” Hardwick said.

“We’ve got some work to do to try and catch up to those sides ahead of us, but we’ve got to make sure we play our brand … week in, week out, because at the moment we’re too inconsistent.”

The external commentary around Richmond is still one of unerring respect and, like the great Hawthorn sides of last decade, these Tigers have earned that.

However, it will take only a Greater Western Sydney victory on Sunday over Hawthorn to boot Richmond out of the top eight with eight rounds to go.

Already the chatter has begun that the Tigers will be dangerous in whatever spot they can sneak into, as long as they qualify for finals.

They still have a 7-7 record and a percentage better than 100, so it’s hardly panic stations, but a top-four berth is surely now beyond them.

Richmond has what looks a cosy run home – outside of playing premiership fancies Geelong and Brisbane, as well as the Giants – but the Saints also weren’t supposed to pose much of a problem.

Damien Hardwick talks to his players during the loss to the Saints. Picture: Getty Images

The Tigers had to put on the afterburners late against Essendon a couple of matches back and fell short against West Coast before their bye.

They’ve suffered pretty comfortable defeats to top-eight peers Sydney, Melbourne, Geelong and Brisbane and their season record against sides in that bracket is an alarming 1-6.

The three flags are protecting Richmond from far more criticism, the sort Port Adelaide is copping for a similar lack of wins against the game’s elite – but that won’t last forever.

And the Power, of course, beat the Tigers in Round 4.

ARE INJURIES REALLY TO BLAME?

Hardwick wasn’t too proud to point to injuries as one of the reasons for Richmond’s predicament.

He not long earlier watched key defender Noah Balta sustain a suspected ACL rupture, a major blow that is yet to be confirmed but already feared.

St Kilda won’t have any sympathy for the Tigers, given it lost two more troops on the night – Jack Billings (knee) and Nick Coffield (hamstring) – to extend a year-long horror injury run.

On volume, Richmond looks pretty healthy compared to the likes of the Saints, Carlton, Fremantle, North Melbourne and West Coast.

Richmond target Tom Lynch (knee) revealed in a pre-match interview he hoped to be back next week against his old side Gold Coast, assuming he trained well on Saturday and in the coming days.

Noah Balta suffered a serious knee injury against the Saints. Picture: Michael Klein

Dion Prestia (hamstring) resumed against St Kilda, while David Astbury (Achilles) is nearing a return and premiership ruckman Toby Nankervis (knee) might be back within a fortnight.

Saints ruck pairing Paddy Ryder and Rowan Marshall slaughtered Mabior Chol and Callum Coleman-Jones on Friday night, leading to a 42-23 clearance hiding.

Chol’s free agency stocks won’t have risen on this night.

“The significance of some of the injuries we’ve had have been more catastrophic (than other seasons), if that makes sense,” Hardwick said.

“We can’t seem to get that connection coming back into the side. We get players back, we lose players going out, so we’re just not playing as well as we would like.

“Each side goes through their stages and some get hit harder than others and, unfortunately, it’s our turn.”

So is there anything to Hardwick’s theory?

Trent Cotchin returned in Round 2 but Nick Vlastuin went out. Bachar Houli came in for Round 4, but Prestia and Kamdyn McIntosh were lost that week.

It was a tough night at the office for Mabior Chol. Picture: Michael Klein

Dustin Martin and Kane Lambert were notable outs in Round 7, then Dylan Grimes and Cotchin followed suit the next week, with Martin and Prestia available again.

Next, it was Shai Bolton’s and Shane Edwards’ turn, while Grimes was back fit. More cavalry returned in Round 11, only for bookends Astbury and Lynch to go down.

Nankervis’ injury sidelined him from Round 12 onwards, before Prestia was back in the wars the following week. After a Round 14 bye, it was Balta who sustained a setback this time.

There will also be a watch on Nathan Broad (ankle) and Vlastuin (leg), who battled through with respective ailments.

Maybe ‘Dimma’ has a point.

WHAT SHOULD WE MAKE OF THE SAINTS?

St Kilda coach Brett Ratten mocked the media’s doomsayer coverage of his side after it accounted for last-placed North Melbourne a month ago.

He had another opportunity after taking down the might of the Tigers as the Saints moved to a 6-8 record with a still-forgettable percentage of barely 82.

Ratten resisted the temptation but called the impressive victory “a step forward”.

“It probably highlights the need for Marshall and Ryder to be out there for us to be at our best and to have both of them out there was great,” Ratten said.

“I thought it was pretty pleasing that (Jack) Billings had a sore knee (from) the warm-up, so he came out, and we were a pretty young team out there tonight.

“We threw big opportunity to (Ryan) Byrnes to play in the midfield – he did a really good job – and (Leo) Connolly and others to just play … so we’re getting some really good looks at our list and just seeing what’s there for the future.

Jack Steele and Seb Ross celebrate a late goal against the Tigers. Picture: Michael Klein

“It is a little bit frustrating, especially after the Adelaide performance, when we just had a healthy lead and gave it up, but we can’t change that. What we can change is what we do next week against the Pies.”

Both Ratten and co-captain Jack Steele were understandably reluctant to positively acknowledge post-match questions about their finals hopes.

That may change if this version of St Kilda rocks up more regularly in the second half of the season.

There must still be some concerns about the Saints’ ceiling with this list and there is a glaring need for more elite young talent.

As Ratten alluded to above, the rest of the season must be an exercise in discovering exactly what he has in his playing group and potentially being aggressive and savvy again in the trade period.

They’ve done some smart deal-making in recent years, but there have been some stinkers mixed in, too. The strike-rate needs to be high from here.

Luke Dunstan had a night out in the win. Picture: Darrian Traynor/Getty Images

HORROR SHOW: HOW SAINTS CAUSED TIGERS’ 60-YEAR LOW

Ronny Lerner

St Kilda has caused one of the upsets of the season by thumping a sloppy and disconnected Richmond outfit by 40 points at the MCG on Friday night in front of just 14,787 fans.

The Tigers were held to just 2.10 (22), their lowest score in 60 years, when they were restricted to just 0.8 (8) in Round 16, 1961 – coincidentally, also against the Saints.

In fact, Richmond were held to their lowest halftime score since Round 16, 2007 and three-quarter time score since Round 13, 2009 – both times also coming against St Kilda.

Richmond’s dirty night was compounded by a suspected ACL knee injury to star defender Noah Balta, while Nathan Broad (syndesmosis) and Nick Vlastuin (cork) finished the game hobbled as well. The win came at a cost for St Kilda, too, with late inclusion Nick Coffield injuring his hamstring.

Left reeling in the 13th spot on the ladder after a spectacular capitulation against Adelaide in Cairns a fortnight ago, the Saints responded to that failure in stunning fashion, emphatically taking down the reigning back-to-back champions on the back of superior aggression and hardness.

Richmond players trudge off the ground post-game. Picture: Michael Klein

The Tigers could now find themselves out of the top eight by the end of the round with their finals aspirations now placed in a degree of jeopardy with just eight weeks left in the regular season, although they do have a fairly easy run home.

The slippery conditions ensured it wasn’t pretty, but that suited the Saints just fine as they adapted far better than the Tigers. Thanks to a clear victory in contested possessions (142-124), and a domination of the clearances (41-23), which was made possible by the reassembled Paddy Ryder-Rowan Marshall ruck tandem dominating the hit-outs 44-20, St Kilda’s hunger and commitment remained insatiable over the course of four quarters.

Richmond defender Noah Balta left the field after this passage. #AFLTigersSaints pic.twitter.com/XRCt35fZ8I
— AFL (@AFL) June 25, 2021

The performance made it almost inconceivable that 10 short weeks ago, Richmond pulverised St Kilda by 86 points.

The inside-50 count was 42-42, but Richmond could only manage two goals compared to the Saints’ nine – five of which coming before the Tigers managed to split the big sticks for the first time in the second term.