Mick Malthouse: How the Demons have maximised the Max Gawn factor
Max Gawn is modest, expresses himself well, doesn’t have a fake bone in his body and might just hold Melbourne’s premiership hopes in his massive hands, Mick Malthouse writes.
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History is not necessarily on my side in my grand final prediction.
The last genuine ruckman to win the Norm Smith Medal was Simon Madden in Essendon’s 1985 premiership triumph. The years following have been dominated, generally, by midfielders.
But the difference between who wins and who loses next Saturday could very well come down to how well Max Gawn takes control of the game, or how much the Western Bulldogs can negate his influence.
It’s very hard to argue that he is not the most popular player in Australia. He is modest, he expresses himself well and there is not one fake bone in his body.
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Gawn has been through the hardship of knee reconstructions and Melbourne failing at crucial points during his 12 years at the club. But, with his nerves of steel — a goal with his final kick in the last game of the home-and-away season to secure top spot for Melbourne, and his complete dominance of Geelong last week — a Superman performance in the grand final could make it all worthwhile.
It is a heavy load to bear, though — if your midfield gets the job done on the biggest stage it generally means you have won the premiership.
Youngster Luke Jackson has made Gawn an even better player this year because he gives his captain the chance to have a breather either at deep forward or on the bench.
Jackson gives him freedom and assurance by maintaining pressure around the ball while Gawn has a rest from ruck duty. Too often in the past Gawn has had to ruck from go to woah and would tire, and when he tired the midfield was less productive which hurt the team’s forwards.
So where does Gawn sit in the overall scheme of things?
It’s been 30 years exactly since another Melbourne ruckman won the Brownlow Medal, Jim Stynes in 1991. And only five ruckmen in the past 40 years have won the prestigious individual award.
Gawn could win the medal on Sunday night. The biggest obstacle standing in his way is his teammates (Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver) stealing votes from him.
Some of the game’s greatest players haven’t won a Brownlow. But teams that win premierships almost always have a dominant ruckman. In recent history, Toby Nankervis has been instrumental in Richmond’s premiership victories.
It wouldn’t surprise if Gawn won the Norm Smith Medal next weekend.
Gawn this season averages 18.4 disposals and 32 hit-outs per game and has kicked 16 goals. In comparison, his direct opponents this weekend, together, have similar stats. Tim English averages 13.2 disposals and 17.1 hit-outs this year alongside 19 goals. Stefan Martin numbers are 9.9 disposals and 17 hit-outs per match with a solitary goal.
But while there is little difference in the stats, it is the influence that determines the outcome. It’s the taps to advantage, the marks going forward, and the defensive marks taken. It’s the sheer presence around the stoppages that separates Gawn from the rest. The Bulldogs can only wish for yesteryear’s third-man-up rule.
You could argue for days about which midfield is better, Melbourne or the Bulldogs.
It is just a football fan’s delight to see so many quality players go head-to-head, and I am loathe to say which group I prefer.
Each of these midfield combinations can kick multiple goals while neither team has dominated the scoreboard across the season. The Demons have averaged 89 points for and 64 points against. The Dogs, 95 points for and 67 points against. There is nothing in it.
The medium-sized mids are hard to split. Christian Petracca averages 28 disposals and one goal. Clayton Oliver, 31 disposals. Jack Viney, 21. And Ed Langdon averages a goal a game.
Marcus Bontempelli picks up around 26 touches plus a goal a game. Jack Macrae, 33. Tom Liberatore, 23 and one goal. And Bailey Smith, 22 and one goal.
While it will be an arm wrestle with plenty of possessions in the midfield, we shouldn’t expect any forward to dominate this game. In the past 10 years only Jack Riewoldt (2019) and Jarryd Roughead (2014) have kicked five goals. Big bags are not the norm in a grand final.
The forward lines of both clubs are served well by several players who can score, without necessarily kicking big scores. Remarkably, the highest goal average for Melbourne and the Bulldogs this year is Kysaiah Pickett, Bayley Fritsch and Ben Brown with two apiece. And Aaron Naughton, Cody Weightman and Josh Bruce, also two goals each.
All be it, with such class in the middle and forward for both clubs, it’s going to be very hard to score against two contrasting defensive sides.
Melbourne is an intercept team, through Jake Lever, and the Dogs are more structured to get the ball into the hands of Bailey Dale and Caleb Daniel, leaving taller players Alex Keath and Ryan Gardner to defend doggedly.
Both Keath and Steven May are coming off hamstring problems. Melbourne has the capacity to cover May with Tom McDonald going back. The Dogs, to a degree, could do the same with Josh Schache.
But the bye has worked in favour for these players, and for both clubs to get their best players on the ground on grand final day.
If not for a timekeeper’s error in Brisbane, the Dogs may have had the double chance like Melbourne. Instead they have come via the cape once again, needing to win four games to win the premiership.
For the Demons to win they will have successfully played three finals in five weeks.
The reality is both sides have gone through a long, arduous home-and-away series.
Fitness will not be a problem. A week’s “rest” will be meaningful, particularly for the Dogs. But it won’t necessarily give either side an advantage.
It will really come down to the team that settles the nerves early and gets on with doing what they have done best all year. Both clubs love contested football, a high intensity game. They use their considerable ability to limit the opposition’s effectiveness, as proven in the preliminary finals.
Because neither is a particularly high scoring team, it removes one problem. Teams that need a big score to win rarely get that chance in a grand final, so they have to adjust to a lower score and readjust to keep the opposition to an even lower score.
Melbourne and the Bulldogs having been doing that all year.
Congratulations to both coaches for getting their teams into the grand final. Luke Beveridge exhausts himself totally in his endeavours to get his team into a winning position. He is fanatical and highly intense. Having worked with him at Collingwood I know he is very structured and will respond if the moves are needed.
I think Simon Goodwin will do the same. He has come under enormous pressure and has delivered. I wouldn’t underestimate the value of Mark Williams. It’s not because of him that the Demons are where they are, but his positive effect will have given Goodwin more assurity in the way he coaches.
I’m tipping Melbourne to win the grand final, marginally. There’s literally nothing in it, except Max Gawn.
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