Dr Peter Larkins says Carlton taking huge risks with returning players in elimination final against Brisbane Lions

How many is too many? Carlton has taken the punt on six inclusions for its elimination final against Brisbane Lions — and a leading sports doctor thinks it could come back to haunt the Blues.

MELBOURNE, JULY 21, 2024: 2024 AFL Football - Round 19 - Carlton Blues V North Melbourne Kangaroos at Marvel Stadium. Tom De Koning of the Blues with the doctors. Picture: Mark Stewart

Carlton coach Michael Voss has emphatically backed his fitness staff to deliver, despite a leading medico saying the Blues were taking a huge risk taking six players returning from injury into the elimination final.

Voss on Friday said the Blues believed they could knock-off the Lions and said Docherty had no concerns about risking his ACL graft only six months after it was surgically repaired.

He said Charlie Curnow had trained well and would likely be available if the Blues got through to a semi-final after a month out with an ankle injury.

But there is no doubting the risk profile of the Blues given Adam Cerra returns after three hamstring issues this year and all six inclusions have battled recent injuries.

Tom De Koning is one of six inclusions for the Blues. Picture: Mark Stewart

Zach Williams and Mitch McGovern have suffered recent hamstring issues, Harry McKay is recovering from a quad issue and Tom De Koning has returned quicker than expected from a foot fracture that required surgery.

“They have been there for a lot of the journey,” Voss said of his returning players.

“Probably two or three haven’t played a lot of footy this year, so they are the ones we keep an eye on but the preparation they have been able to put in, high performance is very different to when I played. We monitor those guys very closely and try to provide a game-like environment and we have been able to do that over the last few weeks and so we feel like they are ready to go.”

Respected sports medico Peter Larkins said on Friday players returning from even a single hamstring issue were much more likely to suffer a recurrence first-up.

He believes most clubs would not risk Docherty after only six months out with a third knee reconstruction but is aware the former captain is prepared to take the risk this late in his career.

“The risk is huge for Docherty and I hope to God he doesn’t go down again. He is the biggest risk and he would have sat down with his surgeon Julian Feller and gone through it. He understands where he is at this stage of his career, so you roll the dice,” he said.

“With any soft tissue concern in your first game back you are at 30 per cent more risk for the injury to reoccur. So a third of the players break down if they come back earlier than scheduled. By the second week it drops down to 15 per cent more likely. So they are rolling the dice, but they know it’s about September, not playing them in April.

Harry McKay has proven his fitness after a quad issue. Picture: Darrian Traynor/Getty Images

“I won’t say Cerra is in uncharted territory because Cyril Rioli has come back from that many hamstrings in one year. But three in a season and returning presents a huge, huge risk.

“If he has had three, you could argue he is mentally going to be on edge anyway. He will be apprehensive anyway but if it’s three hamstrings on the same leg, that can be very risky.”

De Koning will return one day short of seven weeks out of the game since his July 21 injury but will help stifle the influence of Harris Andrews when he plays forward.

Adam Cerra has been plagued by hamstring issues. Picture: Daniel Pockett/Getty Images

And coach Voss hinted Brodie Kemp might remain forward even with ruck-forward De Koning and Harry McKay in the forward line.

“It’s nice to have him back, we thought it might be a week later but to be able to have him out there. He has provided lots of energy for us and he certainly looks fit and well on the track so he’s ready to go,” he said.

“With Harry down there and Kempy, we will look at what (defender Kemp) does, but he’s been able to hit the scoreboard as well. It’s a relatively new forward line but they have gelled really well (in training).”

BLUES WEIGH UP SHOCK SUB MOVE FOR DE KONING

— Jay Clark

Intrigue surrounds Carlton ruckman Tom De Koning and whether he could be used as a surprise substitute for the clash against Brisbane Lions on Saturday night

De Koning only trained very lightly at the Gabba on Friday amid doubts whether can run out a full game in the cut-throat elimination final.

The versatile big man has been picked to make his return from a foot fracture and collapsed lung which he suffered in Round 20 against North Melbourne.

But there are growing doubts De Koning will be able to play out a full 120 minutes in his first game back after foot surgery in late July.

Tom De Koning puts the Blues in FRONT! #AFLBluesTigerspic.twitter.com/xziJWUWTv3

— 7AFL (@7AFL) March 14, 2024

Midfielder Matt Kennedy didn’t train at all on Friday but remains in line to play a key midfield role against the Lions.

Utility Sam Docherty has trained impressively over the past three weeks in his comeback from an Opening Round ACL injury and would start on the ground if De Koning is the sub.

The Blues will go in without gun forward Charlie Curnow who remains sidelined with an ankle issue.