Clayton Oliver, Jordan De Goey, Harris Andrews predicted to be the next superstars of the AFL
Dustin Martin, Patrick Dangerfield, Lance Franklin and Alex Rance are widely regarded as the modern day greats of the game but who’s ready to step up to elite status? Champion Data predicts Generation Next.
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There’s the elite of the AFL competition, and then there’s the creme de la creme.
Fourteen players who sit in a rare bracket of extreme talent.
No one outside this group can realistically be talked about as the game’s best player.
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From Champion Data player ratings we know that most of these players have broken into the stratosphere at 24, having shown what they are capable of at 22 years of age.
They generally maintain this elevated level of excellence through their mid-to-late 20s.
But for the first time we can start to track Generation Next.
Which young midfielder is the next Dusty Martin, Patrick Dangerfield or Nat Fyfe? Who takes over from Buddy as the pre-eminent forward? Will Alex Rance be dethroned as the No.1 defender?
Using the Player Ratings - which assesses all components of the game and ranks influence over possession - we can start to predict who will be the best player in the AFL in three years’ time. Or in 50-60 games.
It is about quality not quantity or what the eye thinks it sees.
The ratings can be used as an unemotional tracking tool for all AFL players.
The crème de le crème is about to pass the baton, but who to?
MIDFIELD TOP DOGS
Patrick Dangerfield burst into the top 10 per cent at 22 years of age, earlier than most.
What an outstanding period of excellence Dangerfield, 28, has exhibited.
The 2019 season will likely involve more time inside the forward 50m and let’s see if he can maintain the loftiest of standards.
Nathan Fyfe, 27, has almost the stereotypical superstar timeline.
Arriving at 22-24 years of age, he has maintained ridiculously high levels of consistency across the next 6-7 years.
Dustin Martin, now 27, bounced around the elite bracket but at 26 performed one on the great seasons ever witnessed, culminating in the 2017 Brownlow Medal and a premiership.
GENERATION NEXT
Marcus Bontempelli had football fans salivating in 2016 but has fallen away fractionally.
This is the year to expect a massive spike if Bontempelli is to become the player we all think he can be.
Patrick Cripps and Clayton Oliver are often compared and play similar roles for their teams, but comparing their 21-year-old AFL seasons is not a close contest.
Oliver wins by a mile.
Using the unemotional AFL ratings system Oliver will comfortably be the AFL’s best midfielder in 50-60 games.
Are Isaac Heeney, Ollie Wines and Josh Kelly going to be in that conversation?
It’s no slight on these players to reside in the elite bracket but their current clubs, or potential suitors, would be questioning the financial investment around these sorts of projections.
On AFL ratings Josh Kelly is not yet a $1 million-plus player but the next 18 months will tell all.
He’s clearly an accomplished high-level player but there’s many of those types on far less lucrative remuneration.
Kelly’s 2017 season had the full spectrum of influence including clearances, shots at goal and a high contested-possession ratio.
Can he return to that and more in 2019?
Is Ollie Wines simply an accumulator without being a game separating, top liner?
AFL ratings judges his influence around the top 10-20 per cent of the competition, which is a borderline elite player but currently far from the creme de la creme stratosphere.
All pre-season reports lead to Isaac Heeney’s 2019 season being his most influential as he will be given more prime midfield opportunities.
Can Heeney rise from a 20-disposal average?
Or commit more scoreboard damage than last year’s 19 goals or the previous year’s 16?
As a guide we’ve plotted the 2018 seasons AFL Ratings performances of Zach Merrett, Matt Crouch, Jack Macrae, Jack Viney and Jaeger O’Meara, just to give some relativity on how far they are from the pointy top end.
Can they get there? Their time is now.
Macrae’s the best performed and most likely to enter the next level and barring injury (which effect the ratings system significantly) would likely already be there.
TOP DOG FORWARDS
Unfortunately, the data is not available before 2010 so Lance Franklin’s timeline, while still awesome, is done a disservice.
Still, the best three-performed forwards are all 30-plus years of age and took differing time frames to arrive at their best.
Tom Hawkins and Jack Riewoldt had their best AFL rating seasons in 2018 at 30 years of age, while Franklin just kept being Franklin.
Hawkins’ 2018 has been undersold.
Last season he averaged the most disposals inside the forward 50m in the competition, the most damaging of disposals.
GENERATION NEXT
This is the most exciting next-generation group in the competition.
Jordan De Goey, Orazio Fantasia and Jade Gresham lead the charge.
Only injury has stifled Fantasia but his time is now.
Without doubt De Goey will enter the top 10 per cent over the next 12-24 months and could be even better when more midfield opportunities arise.
Who could forget his dominance against Melbourne on Queens Birthday last year?
Gresham is St Kilda’s best player, full stop.
At 21 years of age prepare for him to explode over the next short term.
Gresham had more than 120 shots at goal over the past two seasons but more midfield exposure looms this year, which hopefully enhances his trajectory and status in the game.
Jake Stringer, Christian Petracca, Jessie Hogan, Charlie Curnow and Charlie Cameron have claims at their age to reach the best-of-the-best category.
Most expect Charlie Curnow to be there sooner rather than later.
He will enter this season as a 22-year-old, which as stated earlier is the year that provides evidence of the likely levels Charlie will reach.
The trades for the potential stardom for Jessie Hogan, Charlie Cameron and Jake Stringer is visible on the 2018 seasons committed but maybe the vendors knew wat they were selling? Can they get there?
“Who is Christian Petracca?” is the most asked question in football, but 2019 will give some answers.
Entering this season at 23 years of age we will learn the likely ceiling on his talents.
BACKLINE BIG GUNS
Be prepared for the football world to laud Harris Andrews, who was easily the biggest error made by the All-Australian selectors last season.
Harris at 22 is about to become the AFL’s most disruptive defender.
Alex Rance’s graph would not surprise many as his second half of 2018 was not at the standard of the previous five seasons, understandable given that scale.
But have we seen the best of Rance at 29?
Jeremy McGovern is firmly entrenched in the elite bracket of the competition and will contend with Andrews for first picked All-Australian defender over the next five seasons.
GENERATION NEXT
Andrews has not only arrived but given his age appears the only key defender with the
opportunity to enter the creme de la creme.
James Sicily’s maturity and impact on the game have gone hand-in-hand.
Sicily enters this season having just turned 24 and expect this to be his most influential year to date.
It would not shock if he was considered the best general defender, in the mould of Luke Hodge, at season’s end.
But could Sicily be rated a top-10 AFL player at the end of 2019?
Lachie Whitfield is slightly older than James but after a fresh opportunity across the half-back line is the best potential running, creative defender with the opportunity to spike into the creme de la creme of the competition.
Keep an eye on Tom Doedee, Aliir Aliir and Jayden Short as they appear to be ready to strike after strong 2018-rated seasons. But first they must become elite players.
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