AFL trade 2022: How the trade period could play out and what clubs will be out to achieve
An All-Australian original Giant with a heavily back-ended contract could find himself on his way out of Western Sydney.
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Brodie Grundy is going to hit the pre-season with a bit of chip on his shoulder.
For the second time in three years, the Magpies are preparing to boot out one of their superstar players by lobbing a strategic grenade at one of the biggest salaries on their books.
The unexpected move is largely because Collingwood has almost $2 million of its $14 million salary cap tied up in its three ruckmen – Grundy, Darcy Cameron and Mason Cox – at a time when clubs are eagerly bargain-hunting in the big man department.
The bombshell move ignited a trade period which is expected to be the most hectic, most adventurous, and exciting in the game’s history with as many as 40 players set to transfer clubs according to some list managers and player agents.
For Grundy, this was perhaps a kick in the pants we didn’t see coming at the start of the season, and it is clear what point he will want to prove when the Dees and Pies face-off in one of the most anticipated home and away showdowns of the season next year.
Grundy was in outstanding form when the Magpies signed him to that monster deal at the start of 2020.
They warded off interest from the Hawks who were quietly talking about a seven-year deal worth about five million dollars to poach Grundy at the time.
It will be the big watch this summer just how Grundy, 28, and Max Gawn, 30, combine as part of the superstar ruck combination which was designed to give the Demons’ midfielders an armchair ride in the engine room.
Gawn was banged up by the end of the season and the move for Grundy – which will cost the Demons a late first or early second-round pick – is designed to help support if not protect their premiership skipper in the later part of his career.
The moves during this trade period will be bigger and bolder.
Over at Fremantle’s side of the poker table, wearing dark shades and pulled-down caps, Justin Longmuir and David Walls have gone chips in on Melbourne’s Luke Jackson.
Jackson can be anything. He’s the tall whose ground-level skills are arguably even better than his aerial capabilities. Melbourne believe he will be the best ruckman in the competition for a decade.
But maybe there is a little knot in the Dockers’ stomachs. They have already got Sean Darcy as a lead ruckman, meaning his new co-pilot will have to play something of a mix-and-match role.
That will mean motoring around like West Coast champion Dean Cox, roving perhaps at times like Cat Mark Blicavs, and going forward like Bulldog Tim English.
What is certain is Victorian clubs will come hard for Darcy if he has to play second banana in the ruck.
Jackson has spoken with West Coast officials, and officially has not ruled out a move to the Eagles.
But watch Fremantle look to swap its first-round pick with a club such as Port Adelaide to move up the first-round pecking order in a bid to satisfy the Demons.
The pick swaps will fly thick and fast in 2022.
Fremantle currently has pick 14 and could swap with the Power for pick eight and then off-load Fremantle’s future first-rounder to give the Dees’ the two prized choices they crave to stamp the deal.
Port would want a second-rounder in return for shuffling back a few spots in the first-round with the Dockers.
At Richmond, list manager Blair Hartley is preparing to pull an old trick out of his kitbag as the Tigers look to hand over their top picks from this and next year’s draft to electro charge the engine room.
In 2016, Richmond off-loaded pick six for ex-Gold Coast onballer Dion Prestia and Josh Caddy in a move which helped them win three flags.
And next month, Richmond will hand over selections 12, 19 and 30, plus next year’s first-rounder for hard nut Jacob Hopper and fire-starter midfield-forward Tim Taranto.
The Tigers beat the Cats and Magpies for the pair’s signatures with blockbuster seven-year deals which did raise some eyebrows at clubs around the league.
But there again is the boldness at play.
This October, the appetite for risk has gone up a couple of notches.
Early draft picks aren’t everything anymore, and certainly not to the clubs with mature lists who are in the mood to have a shot at the flag.
Just ask Geelong which has missed the finals only once under Chris Scott despite taking only one top-10 selection (Nakia Cockatoo) since Joel Selwood in 2006.
Yet since the Selwood draft, the Cats have won 56 more games than their nearest rival (Hawthorn) and four flags in total with a list management plan which was based on snaring exposed talent, low-cost experience and squeezing every lemon available in the draft and trade fruit bowl.
There were ten 30-year-old Cats in the 81-point Grand Final rout against Sydney Swans on Saturday including the oldest Norm Smith Medalist in the game’s history, Isaac Smith, 33.
But what matters when it comes to landing either the big fish or ready-to-go role players is value.
The Cats don’t over pay. They have their own salary system. They do what they think is fair to everyone.
Patty Dangerfield might have been on bigger money when he first lobbed at Geelong but next year the man who came second in Norm Smith Medal voting will be on about $600,000.
It is the sort of thing which gives them space to be able to afford second-year pair Tanner Bruhn (GWS) and Ollie Henry (Collingwood), helping add two first-round talents to a squad looking to go back-to-back next year.
Collingwood has a two-for-one play in mind by off-loading Grundy’s $950,000-a-year salary.
The Magpies, on account of their overhauled culture under coach of the year Craig McRae and new attacking and frenetic game style, have many players lined up to come to Collingwood.
Managers say the Magpies have been the most aggressive in the player movement space over the past six months.
There’s Brisbane’s Dan McStay, who is the Brody Mihocek clone, and GWS Giants’ speedster Bobby Hill who can bolster the forward half alongside Jack Ginnivan, Beau McCreery and goal kicking midfielder Jordan De Goey.
The Pies already have the pressure game in attack, so it is class and speed which Hill injects forward of centre.
Collingwood’s back line and defence was outstanding since Tom Lynch from Richmond gave the Magpies a touch-up in round 8.
It was the biggest turning point of the Magpies’ season.
But it’s in the clearances and in the forward half where Collingwood can improve even if a more challenging fixture makes life a little tougher for the Magpies in 2023.
McRae wants Adelaide’s Billy Frampton to replace retired fullback Jordan Roughead, while there is also another vacancy in the midfield which will also dominate the headlines for the next few weeks.
Hawthorn’s Tom Mitchell wants to come to the Magpies, as we’ve known for weeks, but it’s borderline whether a deal can be done for the contracted onballer.
It will hinge on whether the Hawks are prepared to accept a mid-to-late draft pick for the Brownlow Medalist and how much of his salary Hawthorn will be prepared to chip in for him to play in black and white.
Tom Mitchell faces a diminished role in the engine room under Sam Mitchell next year and can help bolster the Magpies’ clearance and contested ball work which was a deficiency at times in 2022.
For Hawthorn, the Mitchell move would be a salary dump in the same way Collingwood ditched Adam Treloar to a massive outcry two years ago, and GWS is punting Hopper and Taranto this year, in a bid to realign the books.
Star defender Nick Haynes is also gettable as his salary balloons to almost $1 million a year this season as part of a back-ended deal.
It is the kind of money the Giants have had to pay in the past to keep talented interstaters up north amid constant big-money interest from Victorian rivals.
But this year’s bold moves could signal a change in direction, if not for a renewed push for a cost-of-living allowance (COLA).
As the Giants say, renting a house in Geelong is a lot more affordable than a pad anywhere near a beach in Sydney.
GWS will go back to the draft under new coach Adam Kingsley.
St Kilda are yet to work out if they’ll attack the trade period or the draft.
The Saints have topped up in recent years with a flurry of B-graders and could yet lose Hunter Clark, one of its brightest young players, to North Melbourne.
So does St Kilda zig or zag from here? More top-ups or back to the draft?
The nucleus of talent currently may not be enough to help catapult it into the top-four with more big calls.
Western Bulldogs will prime its defence with the additions of Liam Jones (ex-Carlton) and potentially Adam Tomlinson (Melbourne) who could not get a game, as well as contracted Fremantle tall forward Rory Lobb.
They’ll face a fight on Lobb but his agent, Colin Young, is also helping Griffin Logue exit Fremantle to most likely North.
With Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Sam Darcy in tow, the Dogs are braced for a major play this October in a bid to bounce back up into flag contention.
Watch them be brave.
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