AFL tips Round 1: See who the experts have picked for Richmond v Carlton and every other match

The 2021 AFL season will kick-off on Thursday night with Richmond versus Carlton. See who our experts have tipped for every Round 1 clash.

Follow the experts’ advice to pick more winners this season.

The opening round is upon us and there are some bumper games to begin the 2021 AFL season, kicking off with an MCG blockbuster between rivals Richmond and Carlton.

Round 1 is always difficult to predict and another highly anticipated clash – Hawthorn versus Essendon on Saturday night – looms as one of toughest to call.

The Western Bulldogs will be out to avenge its embarrassing Round 1 defeat against Collingwood on Friday night, while the injury-hit Saints travel to western Sydney to face the Giants.

Check out who the experts are tipping.

DOWNLOAD YOUR FREE FOOTY TIPPING POSTER HERE

FIVE AFL TIPPING RULES TO LIVE BY THIS SEASON

The 2020 AFL season was chaotic as COVID threw the league – and our footy tipping – into turmoil.

With this year returning to more normality, I’ve listed my top five rules to help you get back onto the tipping winners’ list.

1. Remember the home team advantage is back

There was no home ground advantage on a lot of occasions last year, with almost every team playing home games in Queensland.

But for now, sides will be back playing at their preferred venues and the ‘home team’ advantage looks set to be bigger than ever.

Why? Because, at least in Victoria, the first team listed on the fixture is set to have a huge majority of the fans at the ground cheering them due to a half-capacity crowd squeeze.

It’s also worth noting some of the stats from 2019, when Richmond went 13-2 at their favoured MCG, West Coast went 10-3 at Perth Stadium and Geelong went 8-1 at GMHBA Stadium.

When in doubt, backing the home team is a solid rule-of-thumb.

DOWNLOAD YOUR FREE FOOTY TIPPING POSTER HERE

West Coast hated the hub life last season, but were a force when at home in Perth. Picture: Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

2. Recent form is more important that ladder positions

Some people just look to the ladder when putting in their tips and pick the higher team on the table.

But especially early in the season, looking at how teams have performed over the past three or four games is worth the effort.

Some teams have a much tougher draw to start the season than others and therefore the early season ladder can be very skewed.

Watch the 2021 Toyota AFL Premiership Season. Every match of every round Live on Kayo. New to Kayo? Try 14-Days Free Now >

Even later in the season, form is still a better indication of how a team is tracking.

Just because a side is top-eight on the ladder doesn’t mean they are in good form.

They might have a host of injuries, be low on confidence and be in a rut.

3. Keep on top of injury lists during the week

Checking injury lists before putting your tips in is particularly important this year, with clubs not required to submit teams until 6.20pm the day before their game.

Gone are the days of all the teams dropping on a Thursday night, providing plenty of time to get your tips in before the first match on Friday night.

If you still want to put all your tips in on a Thursday night or Friday, it would be wise to check the latest club injury lists to make sure a host of stars aren’t set to be missing from the team you are thinking of picking.

Remember that with tips.com.au you can also update your tips throughout the weekend, so if there are unexpected team changes you won’t be left in the lurch.

Michael Walters tweaked a hamstring during Fremantle’s pre-season match, which could impact their early results if he doesn’t pass fit. Picture: Paul Kane/Getty Images

4. Remember that quarters are back to 20 minutes

Last season all games had 16-minute quarters, a reduction of 20 per cent of overall game time.

This season, traditional 20-minute quarters are back – and some teams like the longer quarters more than others.

Teams that grind down their opponents and then break away in time-on, like Richmond has been known to do in the past, will be at an advantage.

However, other teams, including Carlton, have been not so good in red time in the past.

Keep an eye out for the fitter teams in the early part of the season and which teams struggle late in quarters.

5. Take a gamble, sometimes

Picking favourites every game, every round won’t win you your office tipping league, or the top prize at tips.com.au

Besides, favourites don’t always win anyway.

History suggests only about 70 per cent of favourites win each week in the AFL, on average.

That means there is between two and three upsets in every standard nine-game round.

Be brave and pick at least one or two outsiders a week, taking calculated risks or following your gut feel.

EXPERTS LEND THEIR TOP TIPPING ADVICE

With the clock quickly winding down on the start of the AFL’s 2021 season, footy fans will be sharpening their tipping skills.

Every advantage can help.

Knowing when to pull the trigger on the away team or understanding that form is temporary, but class is permanent.

So, to give you a little push along just a few days out from the first game, we went to some of the biggest footy names in town for some last-minute hints.

SARAH JONES (Fox Footy Host)

“Don’t revenge tip. I often get angry with a team that let me down the previous week so tip against them out of spite. You have to remove the emotional scars of the week before.”

Sarah Jones says try to avoid revenge tipping. Emotion will cloud your judgment.

MARK ROBINSON (Herald Sun Chief Football Writer)

“Try not to pick against Fremantle at home. Suspect they will be difficult to beat.”

GERARD WHATELEY (Fox Footy AFL360 Host)

“Never mind the naysayers – tip from the heart. There’s nothing sweeter than when your team wins unexpectedly and you pick up a tip on the field.”

Gerard Whateley and Mark Robinson have conflicting tipping advice.

DAVID KING (Fox Footy Commentator)

“Don’t try and win footy tipping in the first three rounds. Straight bat early and once your eye is in, take some risks.”

MICK MCGUANE (Herald Sun Football Columnist)

“Don’t ignore gut feel. In an even competition, don’t get influenced by the betting market. Upsets occur regularly early in a new season as clubs are at different stages of their programs.”

Jon Ralph says look for teams with plenty to play for – there’s nothing more motivating than responding to a loss.

JON RALPH (Herald Sun football writer)

“My only real aim is to beat Dermott Brereton in the footy tips which usually isn’t hard, but I am big on the bounce-back factor for teams who have been embarrassed. So often a quality team will be written off after a poor performance so tapping into that motivation has kept me from plummeting too low on the Herald Sun footy tips over the years.”