AFL list guru Chris Pelchen says the first player to earn $2 million a season is less than a decade away

AFL wages will be slashed because of the COVID-19 shutdown but one list guru still expects a $2 million star by the end of the decade. Tell us who you think that player will be.

The man who helped build Hawthorn’s premiership dynasty believes the AFL will still have a $2 million player by the end of the decade.

But veteran list builder Chris Pelchen says players might have to brace for pay cuts of up to 20 per cent in 2021 that will still be below current levels in 2023.

The race for that $2 million player has grown closer not because of the explosion of salaries but back-ended deals that lump a large chunk of salaries in one given year.

Kayo is your ticket to the 2020 Toyota AFL Premiership Season. Watch every match of every round Live & On-Demand. New to Kayo? Get your 14-day free trial & start streaming instantly >

Lance Franklin ($1.5 million in 2021) and Jeremy Cameron ($1.5 million this year) are in that group with back-ended deals.

Gold Coast forward Ben King will secure a salary of over $600,000 in his third and fourth seasons at the Suns given the massive demand for his services.

While St Kilda missed out on his signature amid speculation about a deal of over $700,000, it is understood he signed for a deal that reflects his status but does not hit those heights.

Matt Rowell’s third season will also earn him over $500,000, fair compensation given his astonishing start to football.

Western Bulldogs forward Aaron Naughton is another player whose salary escalates in coming seasons to reflect his extraordinary position as a power forward.

List managers say almost every top-10 draft selection now expects an initial contract extension for their third and fourth seasons at above $400,000 a year.

It has put another inflationary effect on the AFL’s salary cap, which before player payment cuts was $13,013,257 with a marketing allowance of $1.159 million.

The salary cap was slated to rise to $13.538 million in the last year of the current collective bargaining agreement in 2021.

Chris Pelchen says footy’s first $2 million player will become a reality in the next decade.

Pelchen told the Herald Sun the massive staff cuts to football departments would not be as savage for the salary cap, meaning by late in this decade a player could crack the $2 million-a-season barrier.

“You are talking about cuts of between 30 to 40 per cent of football soft caps between 2021 and 2023,” he said.

“I believe it won’t be as significant for players, I think the salary cap will be reduced by about 20 per cent from next year.

“I essentially see it as a 20 per cent reduction in the short term, and then in the medium term, the difference will come back to 15 or 10 per cent.

“Clubs are talking about a five year recovery from this COVID period – the end of 2025 – that’s the conversation the AFL is having with the clubs at the moment. That’s to rectify the damage done by COVID.

From a player sense, I think the rebound will be quicker, they are the biggest earnings in the game, minus the senior coaches. The biggest component of spending from a club is the TPP, so that will bounce back.

“That will mean there will be a slow uptake in staff replacements, that could be a five-year period before it bounces back to 2020 levels. After 2023 and for 2024 we will get back to pre-COVID conditions, and that’s why by the end of this decade you will have $2 million players.”

MORE AFL NEWS:

KFC SuperCoach: Trade targets, rookie options and everything you need to know for rounds 10-12

AFL 2020: All the latest Injury news for Round 8

Collingwood star Adam Treloar on why he’ll always be there for his daughter, growing up as the ‘poor kid’ and living with anxiety

AFL Rich 100: Who are the AFL’s highest-earning stars? See the players ranked 1-100

AFL Rich 100: How AFL player salaries compare to superstar athletes around the world