AFL expected scores ladder: Western Bulldogs, Brisbane Lions most wasteful in Champion Data analysis

Carlton’s charmed run to second on the ladder has been revealed in exclusive expected scores analysis. See where every club sits and the finals contenders kicking themselves out of the top-four mix.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA – MAY 23: Riley Garcia of the Bulldogs rues a missed shot on goal during the 2024 AFL Round 11 match between the Western Bulldogs and the Sydney Swans at Marvel Stadium on May 23, 2024 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Two of the AFL’s premiership sleepers have been revealed as the most wasteful clubs in front of goal this season.

Champion Data’s expected scores analysis shows the Western Bulldogs and Brisbane Lions would be inside the top-four on the ladder had they been more efficient in attack in 2024.

The Bulldogs are the biggest risers when comparing the AFL ladder to expected scores, jumping from 11th to second at 10-4 instead of their current 7-7 record.

Luke Beveridge’s side kicked a combined 39.57 from rounds 9-11, defeating the Giants and Richmond and losing to ladder-leader Sydney.

“In particular, against a team like the Giants if you’re not capitalising, you feel like it could cost you,” Beveridge said after the Dogs booted 8.22 to secure a gritty win over GWS in tough conditions.

“I think we hit that left goalpost seven times and I think there were seven rushed behinds as well. Those big things are sometimes really important.”

The table shows the Bulldogs have the highest expected score per game in the league (95.9), just ahead of the Swans (95).

Earlier this year, it was revealed the Bulldogs had turned to kicking blindfolded at training to help fix their issues in front of goal.

The Dogs have surged into finals contention after round 15, sitting six points behind fifth-placed Fremantle, ahead of a pivotal stretch that includes games against Port Adelaide, Geelong and Melbourne in the next six weeks.

Brisbane has stormed to 10th by winning four of its past five matches, but would have been firmly entrenched in the top eight had it not been wasteful in front of goal early in the campaign.

“Our actual performance profile is really strong,” Lions coach Chris Fagan said earlier this month.

“The one area where we’ve let ourselves down significantly this year is accuracy in front of goal. (The round 11 game against Hawthorn) is a terrific example of that. We kicked 10.15 and Hawthorn kicked 15.10 … our accuracy has really hurt us at different times and probably cost us the opportunity to win games three or four times (in early 2024).”

Western Bulldogs sit second on the expected scores ladder. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

Carlton has cashed-in on its luck to sit second on the ladder, with the Blues ranked 14th for points against (85) on the expected scores table.

But Essendon was the biggest slider when compared to expected scores, dropping from third to 11th with 10 less points than its current tally of 38.

St Kilda (13th on the expected scores ladder) was only one game from fifth in Champion Data’s analysis.