AFL crystal ball: Jon Ralph’s big early calls for the 2022 season
Jon Ralph peers into his crystal ball for 2022, revealing who the next crop of stars will be in the AFL and where every club will finish. See every prediction here.
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Tell me who do you think the worst side in 2022 will be.
It might seem a morbid introduction to any glance ahead to the third Covid-interrupted season on the bounce, but the silver lining is easily apparent.
After AFL clubs added future stars and speculative rookies to their lists last week all but a handful of difficult decisions on fringe players and summer supplementary players have been made.
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AFL lists are all but set in a year where this much is easy to predict – everyone is chasing Melbourne, who must win multiple flags to frank this brilliant collection of talent.
Not to mention hold aloft a premiership cup in front of their MCG fans, so thrilled by what they saw on TV at Perth Stadium while in Melbourne lockdown but positively desperate to see another unfold in front of their own eyes.
But after a week in which North Melbourne’s brilliant off-season continued with the addition of Jason Horne-Francis and Adelaide secured Toby Greene clone Josh Rachele, the AFL might have finally hit pay dirt.
Even as clubs like Geelong and Richmond are trying to buck equalisation measures, the strugglers have taken their licks and are already on the upswing.
In 2020 it was apparent Adelaide would be an on-field punching bag given a full-blown rebuild and raw young coach in Matthew Nicks, going 0-13 before winning three of its last four games.
This year the Roos tipped out a third of their list, added a new coach in David Noble and went 0-8 before eking out four wins and a draw from their last 14 matches.
When putting together a ridiculously early 2022 crystal ball, ranking each team from 1-18, the battle to avoid the wooden spoon might just be as fierce as the top-four race.
If Hawthorn’s draft plans had gone as they hoped they might be in full rebuild mode but instead check this out for experienced senior players: James Sicily, Jack Gunston, Luke Breust, Ben McEvoy, Jaeger O’Meara, Tom Mitchell, Chad Wingard, Liam Shiels, Jarman Impey.
It’s far from the list profile of a team attempting to tank to get the No.1 overall pick.
Collingwood’s Graham Wright nailed it recently when he said the Pies finished 17th for a reason.
They are only 12 months into a rebuild and while they added five 2020 draftees (Ollie Henry, Finn Macrae, Reef McInness, Caleb Poulter, Liam McMahon, Beau McCreery), two 2020 rookies (Jack Ginnivan, Isaac Chugg), two mid-season picks (Ash Johnson, Aiden Begg), four 2021 draftees (Nick Daicos, Arlo Draper, Cooper Murley, Harvey Harrison) and 2021 rookie Charlie Dean – which of those names are guaranteed A-graders? Perhaps only Daicos, with exciting signs from Macrae and Henry at times this year.
So they are in for more pain, and yet consider their best eight: Jordan De Goey, Scott Pendlebury, Taylor Adams, Jeremy Howe, Jack Crisp, Steele Sidebottom, Darcy Moore, Brayden Maynard.
If the Pies put together another four-win season it would only be after a calamity that saw a combination of factors like De Goey being jettisoned, Pendlebury missing another chunk with injury and their only real key target in Brodie Mihocek succumbing to serious injury.
So the Pies ain’t winning the wooden spoon.
Here is the first incarnation of the 2022 AFL crystal ball, with an early prediction on each club.
1. Melbourne
Every single member of the Demons’ flag team will go around again.
And Sam Weideman, Adam Tomlinson and Jayden Hunt will move heaven and earth to be part of the fun this time around.
Players with significant upside from that brilliant drought-breaking team: Luke Jackson, Kysaiah Pickett, Tom Sparrow, Trent Rivers, Harrison Petty, Bayley Fritsch, Jake Bowey, James Jordon, Charlie Spargo.
Add the freaks: five-goal prelim final hero Max Gawn, Norm Smith medallist Christian Petracca, All-Australian defenders Jake Lever and Steven May, Brownlow Medallist-in-waiting Clayton Oliver.
If the Demons don’t win another flag in the next three years something has gone seriously wrong.
Early prediction: If Luke Jackson isn’t re-signed by June, West Coast will be offering him $7 million over six years as the franchise target of their rebuild for 2023 and beyond.
2. Port Adelaide
The Power won the last 12 games of the season not including contests against 2021 preliminary finalists.
But the real story is that they didn’t get within 20 points of Geelong (Round 13, 21 points), Melbourne (Round 17, 31 points) or the Western Bulldogs (preliminary final, 71 points).
So if the Power are allowed to put a rocket up the likes of Sam Powell-Pepper about his training habits, we can be frank about the other teases: Connor Rozee, Orazio Fantasia, Todd Marshall, Steven Motlop.
They are joined by the inconsistent Jeremy Finlayson from GWS.
If that massively talented group have full seasons maximising their wondrous potential – and Zak Butters and Xavier Duursma avoid injury and get midfield-fit – we will stop calling the Power flat-track bullies.
Early prediction: Zak Butters wins an All-Australian spot as a 75-25 midfield-forward.
3. Western Bulldogs
David King says the Dogs have the biggest premiership window in the competition.
If they had a top-six ruckman playing for them this year they would enter this summer as reigning premiers.
So all the lofty predictions apply – the Bont had one hand on the Norm Smith early in the third term of the grand final, Sam Darcy and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan could be anything, the depth is off-the-charts good.
But it is understood the Dogs had a significant crack at Richmond’s premiership ruckman Ivan Soldo before he re-signed for three years in September, then didn’t chase a Peter Ladhams or Jon Ceglar as a fall-back option.
So until Tim English can consistently show us he is the player that mauled Brodie Grundy in Round 1 (with help from Stef Martin), we will continue to wonder if the rucks will cost them another flag.
Early prediction: You know how the Dogs really hate GWS? Prepare for the Dogs and Melbourne to go at it in Round 1 after the grand final loss and its aftermath, just as the fuse was lit the summer after the Giants roughed up Marcus Bontempelli in that infamous elimination final.
4. Brisbane Lions
To their eternal credit and new-found maturity, the Lions bounced back from a 1-3 start amid bad beats (the Round 2 non-holding the ball decision for Zac Bailey) and being stuck in Melbourne to win 15 home-and-away games.
Then they lost in straight sets again, first to eventual premier Melbourne then in a one-point semi-final heartbreaker to the Dogs.
So a team in a perfect age demographic with talent to burn and Cam Rayner returning should play angry all season after five losses in six finals attempts.
Do teams sometimes have to absorb years of finals pain before breaking through, as Chris Fagan says? For sure.
But do the Lions have a monkey on their back that only finals wins can throw off? Damn straight.
Early prediction: Zac Bailey breaks Dayne Zorko’s stranglehold on the Merrett-Murray Medal after only finishing eighth despite kicking 31.18, collecting 440 touches and a dozen moments of sheer brilliance.
5. Geelong
Say what you want about Geelong’s age demographic or finals record, but they just win home-and-away games for fun.
In the past decade? 15, 18, 17, 11, 17, 15, 13, 16, 12 (of 17) and 16 wins in home-and-away seasons.
So if you want to predict a finals bolter like St Kilda (one finals appearance in a decade to Geelong’s nine), then go your hardest.
Jeremy Cameron missed 10 games (and limped off early in another), Mitch Duncan missed a dozen, Patrick Dangerfield nursed a groin leading into the season, Tom Stewart missed all three finals.
Call this season whatever you want (except the Last Dance) but predicting a crash out of the race would be insanity.
Prediction: Geelong settles Mark Blicavs down into a purely defensive role (no wing, no ruck) and he wins his third Carji Greeves Medal and is in the All-Australian 40.
6. Essendon
Plenty of pre-season crystal balls will leave Essendon out of the top eight.
Consider this – of the nine games with a margin of 16 points or under, Essendon lost all but two, including nearly every nailbiter.
They lost by one point to Hawthorn, three and seven points to Sydney, two points to GWS, 11 points to Melbourne.
And still finished 11-11 before another Essendon-y type of finals performance, this time a 49-point loss to the Western Bulldogs.
The point is this: they are building something sustainable that still requires a key forward target.
But Ben Rutten’s ticks are culture, game plan, player buy-in, a stacked midfield and backline.
Flash in the pan? Not for me.
Prediction: Jake Kelly finishes top-five in the Essendon best-and-fairest as their lockdown specialist playing on all the dangerous smalls like Toby Greene and Liam Ryan.
7. Sydney
Sydney’s first 22 games, three quarters, nine minutes and 15 seconds of the 2021 season were superb. From then on they kicked five behinds in a row to lose by a point to arch-rival GWS in an elimination final then were distraught to lose Jordan Dawson to Adelaide despite a mega-bucks offer.
But even with the gnashing of teeth over Dawson’s departure, and what could be Lance Franklin’s final year, the Swans are on an upswing.
Let’s remember Dawson wasn’t even playing wing until Round 15.
And then try this exercise: which of the young Swans will be the best of the Cygnets: Logan McDonald, Braeden Campbell, Errol Gulden, Justin McInerney, James Rowbottom, Chad Warner, Sam Wicks, Nick Blakey, Joel Amartey or James Bell?
The kids are coming, and so is Sydney.
Prediction: Lance Franklin signs a modest one-year contract extension for 2023 by Round 15.
8. Richmond
No Rance, no Astbury, no Butler, no Houli, no Callum Coleman-Jones, no Higgins, with Jack Riewoldt and Trent Cotchin potentially in their finals seasons.
So many of the premiership stars, young kids on the rise or just simply solid depth players who made Richmond what they are are ageing or gone.
The rules tweaks altered what fundamentally made Richmond what it was, and most of the small forward line that won the 2017 and 2019 flags (Butler, Dan Rioli, Jason Castagna, Jacob Townsend) have departed, been repurposed (Rioli) or endured torrid 2021 campaigns (Castagna kicked seven goals in his last 15 games).
None of that is to say the Tigers won’t make finals, just that the return of Dustin Martin won’t guarantee anything.
Over to you Shai Bolton, Noah Balta, Sydney Stack, Riley Collier-Dawkins, Ivan Soldo, Jack Graham and the new breed upon whom Richmond’s 2022 fate depends.
Early prediction: Unleash the half-backs. Damien Hardwick finds a Plan B featuring pyrotechnic run from the backline with Rioli, Jayden Short, Tom Brown and Stack hurtling through the midfield to help Tom Lynch get his mojo back.
9. St Kilda
It’s only a matter of trust.
Everything that could go wrong did for St Kilda in 2021 with a dire injury list and an early-season funk, and yet they still fought to 10 home-and-away victories.
The upside is clear: Max King, Cooper Sharman (after four Round 23 goals) Rowan Marshall (how many of his 13 games was he at 100 per cent?), Jade Gresham and Zak Jones injury free after no 2021 games for Gresham and only 13 for Jones.
The downside is St Kilda has finished better than 10th once since 2012 with only one finals campaign to show for it.
And while their goalkicking was slightly better they coughed up four 50-point losses.
So it’s all about trust, and it’s just not there yet for St Kilda.
Early prediction: “Missy” Higgins becomes Can’t Miss Higgins after finishing the year 10.1 to bounce back from his torrid 1.6 and 0.2 fortnight.
10. GWS Giants
If Jesse Hogan puts the Superman cape on and Stephen Coniglio earns his million dollar wage in Toby Greene’s five-week absence, the sky could still be the limit.
But while GWS spread the load last season – 11 double-figure goalkickers and give players with 20-plus – the forward line still looks thin without Greene and with Jeremy Finlayson gone.
It means GWS is just where it likes it – backs to the wall – but after a brilliant Leon Cameron coaching performance to reconfigure his forward line and make a strength of the surfeit of inside mids, he won’t mind being underrated once more.
Early prediction: Coniglio played severely hurt in the back half of the year but fronted up with his toe injury despite knowing it would put a target on his back. Back to elite status with a full pre-season.
11. Carlton
Show us what you have got, Vossy.
A cohesive defensive brand, a full-back to replace the brilliant Liam Jones, a role for Mitch McGovern, Lochie O’Brien, Zac Fisher, Caleb Marchbank, Zac Williams.
Every footy purist wants to see the best out of Brodie Kemp, Tom De Koning, Paddy Dow, Charlie Curnow and Liam Stocker and can see what Adam Cerra and George Hewett SHOULD do for the midfield.
They have just had an absolute gutful of predictions of grandeur from a side that hasn’t finished top-four since 2000 and whose only top-10 finish (and finals appearance) since 2011 came because Essendon was deemed by the AFL to have cheated.
Early prediction: Harry McKay becomes the first Carlton player since Brendan Fevola to kick 80 goals after 58 this year with a bung shoulder in an eight-win team.
12. West Coast
Three years on from a premiership, Adam Simpson called his side “embarrassing” and “weak” after a loss to Geelong this season.
Let that sink in for a moment.
That he was so desperate to snap the Eagles out of their malaise that he would resort to that language tells you everything about their 2021 plight.
So this is last-chance saloon stuff, with an ageing but exceptionally well paid list and Brad Sheppard’s concussion issues jeopardising his season in the latest injury blow.
Simpson might tip his kick-mark game-plan on his head and his downtrodden stars might make an unlikely surge to keep the window alive.
But we would want to see it before we made any silly predictions.
Early prediction: Willie Rioli and Liam Ryan kick 70 goals between them as Rioli repays the faith.
13. Hawthorn
The Hawks are probably 18th in the premiership window given most of their best players will be 29 or older by Round 1 – Ben McEvoy, Luke Breust, Liam Shiels, Jack Gunston (all 30-plus), as well as Kyle Hartigan (30) and Tom Mitchell (29 in May).
But Sam Mitchell’s only option after the failed draft strategy is to strive for greatness while pumping games into the blue-blood kids (Will Day, Denver Grainger-Barras, Josh Ward) and youngsters from summer and mid-season recruiting pathways (Lachie Bramble, Jai Newcombe, the uncapped Jackson Callow).
With James Sicily and Jack Gunston back for Round 1 and every Hawks insider spruiking Mitchell’s new game plan, the Hawks should push up the ladder after a seven-win 2021, even if maximising draft picks might help the long-term plan.
Early prediction: Be bold, boys. Make James Sicily the Hawthorn captain. He plays with all the swagger and authority of a leader.
14. Fremantle
Justin Longmuir’s Dockers might be the hardest side to judge of all 18 teams.
They won 10 games in 2021 but only two against top-eight teams (Sydney and GWS) and despite so many exciting kids and a recognisable game plan, lost seven matches by 40 points or more.
They will get there with a smart and planned rebuild, but with Adam Cerra gone and Nat Fyfe’s shoulder injury clearly career-threatening despite Longmuir’s predictions he will play Round 1, it’s hard to believe the breakout season will be 2022.
Early prediction: Sean Darcy is the starting All-Australian ruckman, pushing Max Gawn onto the AA bench.
15. Collingwood
So excited about the Maynard-Howe-Moore interceptors behind centre.
At some stage in the year (after Jordan De Goey’s likely club-based suspension) the midfield will have Grundy rucking to De Goey, Pendlebury, Macrae, Taylor Adams and a couple of Daicos boys, with Jack Crisp and Steele Sidebottom on the wings.
Yet, by their own admission, the rebuild only started a season ago.
Collingwood had just four players kick over 13 goals (Brody Mihocek 34, Jamie Elliott 25, De Goey 23, Darcy Cameron 22) and Elliott is injury-prone and the Pies might or might not sack De Goey.
So buckle up for a wild ride with the team-builder Craig McRae and defensive maestro Justin Leppitsch, but just realise it will still be bumpy for some time yet.
Early prediction: Nick Daicos easily wins the Rising Star as a bone fide mid given Jason Horne-Francis’s lack of midfield time as a 75-25 forward-mid.
16. Gold Coast
Wouldn’t it be nice if Charlie Constable did a reverse Jarryd Lyons and smashed the season to bits as an inside mid for the Suns?
If Rory Atkins pulled his finger out to deliver on his long-term deal, if Matt Rowell became the mega-star we believed he would be before shoulder and knee injuries.
If Ben King, Jack Lukosius and Izak Rankine signed up long-term before their deals became a circus.
There are just too many question marks right now to believe a team that has never finished better than 12th in its 11-season history will buck the trend.
Early prediction: Joel Jeffrey emerges as a 25-goal third forward to take the pressure off Ben King and Sam Day.
17. North Melbourne
No one would be shocked if the different sections of the Roos list combined to surge up the ladder as the oldies (Todd Goldstein, Jack Ziebell) maintained the rage while the next breed (Jy Simpkin, Luke Davies-Uniacke) continued their march and the kids (Tom Powell, Coleman-Jones, Horne-Francis) overachieved.
But let’s be honest: for all the positive vibes and wildly encouraging list build, the Roos started 0-8 in 2021 and finished with a winless last month.
They are definitely going places fast, but it doesn’t mean short-term growing pains aren’t still ahead.
Early prediction: The Roos win seven games but still only finish 17th in one of footy’s most competitive seasons.
18. Adelaide
The Crows are still only 39 games into a massive club-wide rebuild.
They won only three of their last 17 games after a Taylor Walker-inspired purple patch that saw him kick bags of five, six, six and three goals in a 3-1 first month for the Crows.
They must reintegrate Walker with all the challenges that come with that after his racist slur.
And despite the acquisition of Jordan Dawson, they have lost stalwarts including Jake Kelly, Daniel Talia, David Mackay and Tom Lynch.
Adelaide knows exactly where it is at – with the right coach, the right captain (Rory Sloane) the right list strategy, the patience to build methodically.
It just might take another 24 months of pain before the on-field bounce.
Early prediction: New acquisition Josh Rachele only takes weeks before fans wonder if they should name one of the Adelaide Oval forward pockets “Josh’s pocket”.
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