Carlton vs Geelong Deep Dive: Belief growing for Carlton as Cats stumble to consecutive defeats
A reigning premier hasn’t lost the first two games of a season in 14 years, so should alarm bells be ringing at Cat land? And what is with Patrick Dangerfield’s form?
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Five years ago Nathan Buckley – who was coaching for his future – was asked how troubling Collingwood’s winless start to the 2018 season was.
Buckley responded: “It’s round 2, mate, take a breath” – and the Magpies responded to win 17 games and get within a kick of an unlikely premiership.
So, how troubling is Geelong’s 0-2 entrance to 2023?
Unlike Buckley and the Pies there is minimal pressure on the reigning premiers, and coach Chris Scott – like Buckley in 2018 – isn’t panicking.
Publicly, at least. But you wonder … are they as cool internally or would there be any alarm bells ringing?
No Tom Stewart, no Mitch Duncan, no Jack Henry, no Jake Kolodashnij – who are all injured defenders – and no premiership points is far from ideal.
It’s a minor miracle full-back Sam De Koning isn’t on that list, too, given some of the brutal hits he copped in the first half against Carlton on Thursday night.
Throw in no Joel Selwood, not much from a clearly-underdone Tom Hawkins and not much midfield energy in the first quarter against Carlton and surely it’s at least a bother.
The Cats regretted starting Patrick Dangerfield on the bench in last year’s qualifying final because the Magpies got the jump on them without their most explosive weapon.
Dangerfield was on the grass against the Blues, but the Cats simply couldn’t get their hands on the ball early.
At quarter-time they had 39 fewer disposals and should’ve also had several fewer goals, but were saved by Carlton’s shonky set-shots.
The scoreboard lied with the margin at only five points. In fact, it did for most of the night.
This felt like it was closer to an eight-goal loss then an eight-point loss, and one statistic from the first two rounds jumps out.
Last week the Magpies took 16 marks inside 50m against Geelong – that’s 16 instant looks at goal.
It was the most the Cats had conceded since Melbourne matched that number in the 2021 preliminary final and, like the Pies, the Dees booted 19.11 (125) that night – the two biggest scores kicked against the Cats since 2017.
On Thursday night the Blues went one better, taking 17 marks inside 50m.
Their ninth came straight after the eighth, as Tom De Koning marked on the lead directly in front of goal and then passed to Zac Fisher in the pocket.
Not a single defender was anywhere near Fisher as he ran into an open goal, and De Koning had several free teammates near goal he could’ve passed to.
Where on earth were the Cats defenders? Like the Pies last week, it looked as if the Blues were able to spread the MCG as Geelong’s formation fizzled.
The Blues boast a physically strong onball unit. But the likes of Adam Cerra, Matt Kennedy and Patrick Cripps aren’t exactly the most explosive athletes in the AFL, so how on earth were they able to find so much open grass?
It begs a question that Scott will hate. Are the Cats fit enough? The 0-2 formline perhaps isn’t so much as worry as the way the Cats are playing.
Scott said they expected teething problems and blooding new players, such as Ollie Henry, Tanner Bruhn and Jack Bowes, was more important in the long run.
Bruhn looks like he’ll be a terrific midfielder while Bowes was close to Geelong’s best player in his first quarter for his new club and so there’s clearly positives in the refresh.
Last year the Cats were 5-4 after round 9 before winning 16 consecutive games to run away with the flag. They did it with legs the competition was envious of.
When Ross Lyon was announced as St Kilda coach he referenced Geelong’s running power as the benchmark.
But two games in and the Cats have been outrun twice.
In 2021 and 2022 clubs required 16 wins to make the top four – in 2021 the Western Bulldogs finished fifth with 15 wins and last year Fremantle finished fifth with 15 wins and a draw.
The Cats might have to win 16 from 20 now to get the double chance. Nobody would write them off because at their best they are the best.
But it’s certainly dented those hopes, and if any other team was 0-2 and playing this way you’d probably suggest it was beyond them.
Scott has only started 0-2 once before. That was in 2015, the only year his club has missed finals.
The good news is five of their next six games are against clubs who missed the top eight last season, and they have two welcomed long breaks before games against Gold Coast (10 days) and Hawthorn (eight days).
They will be confident of unfurling their premiership flag against Sydney in round 6 at 3-2 after games against the Suns, Hawks and then West Coast in Gather Round.
But the margin for error has eroded, and if they drop any of those then surely a headache will set in.
Dangerfield ‘shocker’ as Blues condemn premiers to 0-2 start
Carlton coach Michael Voss hailed his team’s “humility” to learn from their heartbreaking capitulations and withstand a late onslaught by reigning premier Geelong at the MCG.
Voss revealed there were some “tough learnings” for his men after last week’s draw against Richmond — but despite Jeremy Cameron’s brilliance the Blues held on by eight points.
“To be able to go back after last week and have a bit of a look at it and learn off it … and there’s some guys there that had some tough learnings,” Voss said.
“But what we were confident of was that our system was standing up. There was a few little decisions we had to make better to correct it, and tonight we were absorbing a fair bit from about seven minutes to go.
“But in the last 3 ½ minutes I thought we executed really, really well.”
The victory kept the Blues undefeated and their fans in the crowd of 55,861 went berserk for every defensive mark in the closing minutes after enduring so much pain.
Coleman medallist Harry McKay moved behind the ball in the final few minutes to take three of those towering grabs while Lewis Young and Ollie Hollands also stepped up with the game on the line.
It was Carlton versus Jeremy Cameron for much of the night as the Cats spearhead slotted 6.0 from set-shots, including two early in the final quarter, as a 28-point lead shrunk to less than 10 points.
Even Voss said he had to admire the class of Cameron — but was thrilled enough of his men stood up on what could be a defining night.
Cameron also had a team-high 25 disposals and only Adam Saad, who had a career-high 29 touches, recorded more metres gained.
Geelong recorded 18-5 inside 50s in the final quarter, but Voss’s men absorbed the surge.
“We had a lot of guys that had great nights. There’s a lot of love in the air,” Voss said.
The Blues had lost 12 of their past 14 games against Geelong with club great Eddie Betts revealing that for many years they hoped rather then believed they could beat the premiership giant.
They averaged less than 60 points in the past six of those games. But only inaccuracy stopped them becoming the second consecutive team to boot 100 points against the winless Cats.
The Blues will now enjoy a nine-day break before hosting the Giants, who will be playing off a six-day break after a trip to Perth.
The Cats now play Gold Coast (away), Hawthorn and West Coast — with 10 and eight-day breaks entering their next two.
Geelong captain Patrick Dangerfield had a game-high eight clearances — but was criticised by premiership coach Mick Malthouse.
“(He’s) had two shockers,” Malthouse said on ABC.
“Last week he didn’t play (well), this week he’s really struggled. I don’t know if it’s the expectations or leadership. He just doesn’t look like the same dynamic player.”
Dangerfield has played less than three quarters in both games this season.
The Cats have become the first premiers since Hawthorn in 2009 to start the season 0-2, while it is only the second time coach Chris Scott has started a season with that record.
The other time was in 2015 — the only season Scott has missed finals.
Danger struggling, can rivals smell blood in the water with stalled Cats?
- Opinion: Josh Barnes
Chris Scott has work to do.
The master tinkerer may be two only games removed from his moment in the sun, but Geelong’s premiership defence has already stalled.
The biggest issue irking Scott will be that Cats have been beaten the same way in back-to-back weeks and the rest of the competition is smelling blood in the water with the reigning premiers.
Just as in round 1 against Collingwood, Carlton won the midfield fight and out-spread Geelong for most of Thursday night’s eight-point win.
Down by a stunning 49 in the disposal count and 19 in marks at the first change, the Cats spent most of the night holding back the dam wall.
And if it wasn’t for Jeremy Cameron’s efforts, it would have burst much earlier than when Charlie Curnow boosted the Blues’ run in a scintillating third term.
It is the midfield that will be of main concern for Scott as he spends a long break before next Sunday’s meeting with Gold Coast asking the hard questions of his men.
Like Samson, Cam Guthrie’s ball-winning class has disappeared with his long hair and he was sent to defence in the second half.
New skipper Patrick Dangerfield hasn’t been a factor in the first fortnight, Tom Atkins’ 2022 hasn’t carried into the new year and Tanner Bruhn is still searching for his feet.
The Cats were unable to get their hands on the ball and the Blues — just like the Pies — ran all over the reigning premiers and moved the ball through the middle of the MCG with ease.
Scott’s one-wood of all-ground defence was full of holes and the corridor was open season for the Michael Voss running game.
Geelong conceded 100 points just once in 2022 and has let through an average of 107.5 in the opening fortnight.
The good news for Cats fans is that a soft draw and long breaks — 10 days before the Suns clash and a further eight before facing Hawthorn — gives Scott his time to tinker.
The bad news is history.
The only other year in which the Cats have started 0-2 in the Scott era was 2015.
That was also the only year his team missed the finals.
Defiant Blues survive thriller at last
Charlie Curnow has come out on top of his 11-goal heavyweight shootout with Jeremy Cameron as Carlton won a thriller by eight points against Geelong at the MCG on Thursday night.
Cameron played one of the best games of his stellar career, racking up 25 disposals, eight marks and six goals, but it wasn’t enough to drag his team over the line.
Down the other end, Curnow exploited a Geelong backline that was missing Tom Stewart (knee), Jack Henry (foot), Jake Kolodjashnij (concussion), to finish with 11 touches, nine marks and five majors as the Blues ran out 13.12 (90) to 12.10 (82) winners.
Curnow stamped his authority on the contest in the middle two quarters, kicking four of six Carlton goals at one stage, to help propel his team 28 points clear late in the third quarter as the Blues’ midfield got right on top of Geelong’s.
However, the Cats kicked four of the last five goals, including three to Cameron, the second of which came courtesy of an ill-directed Mitch McGovern kick-in that went straight to the Geelong sharpshooter, to trim the deficit to eight points late in the final quarter.
Geelong managed to apply enormous pressure to Carlton, which came to a standstill after dominating much of the match.
The Cats had their chances to snatch the victory, too. When they were down by eight points with 2min20sec to go, Tanner Bruhn won a contested ball against Adam Cerra, span out of traffic magnificently and had the chance to spot up Tyson Stengle, but kicked it out on the full.
And with 40 seconds remaining, and Geelong still down by eight, Jack Bowes kicked it to Cameron at centre-half forward, however Lewis Young strongly outmarked him, sealing the result. Harry McKay was also massive late, taking three contested marks.
After being denied victory in their previous three games by goals kicked by the opposition in the last 11, 102 and 17 seconds respectively, the Blues breathed a huge sigh of relief when they finally saw themselves with a bigger score on the final siren, ending a five-game winless run.
In the end, the Blues finished well on top in disposals (382-328) and contested possessions (136-120).
Adam Saad (29 disposals) was also huge for the Blues as he did a great defensive job on the dangerous Tyson Stengle, Jacob Weitering kept Tom Hawkins quiet, while Patrick Cripps (27 touches), Blake Acres (26) and Matthew Kennedy (26) were also influential.
Worryingly for the Cats, almost like what happened in their season opener against Collingwood, for large parts of the middle two quarters, Carlton’s leg speed and pressure overwhelmed them and they were made to look tired and slow before their final-quarter resurgence.
And Hawkins could find himself in MRO trouble after whacking Weitering in a marking contest in the first quarter, momentarily dazing the Carlton defender and forcing him from the field with a bloodied nose. Weitering resumed his spot shortly after.
HOLLANDS STAND TALL
In the final quarter with the Cats down by 16 points, Cameron charged out and attempted to take a chest mark 25m out from goal, but Carlton youngster Ollie Hollands in his second game put his body on the line, went in the hole and spoiled Cameron.
McGOVERN MAKES AMENDS
After gifting Cameron his fifth goal, McGovern went some way to making amends five minutes later when he ran down Cameron at the top of the goal square and prevented a certain goal as the Blue’s pressure act ensured the Geelong forward missed to the right.
BOWES BLOWS IT
New Geelong recruit Bowes had the chance to trim the margin to nine points with six minutes left, but his set shot from 30m out barely snuck in for a behind, letting the Blues off the hook.
DURDIN DAZZLER
The Blues knew it was their night midway through the third quarter when small forward Corey Durdin’s checkside punt from 35m out on the boundary line, while being tackled by Patrick Dangerfield, miraculously floated through the big sticks to put his team 28 points to the good.
SCOREBOARD
BLUES 2.6 6.8 12.11 13.12 (90)
CATS 2.1 5.6 9.6 12.10 (82)
LERNER’S BEST
Blues: C.Curnow, Saad, Cripps, Weitering, Kennedy, Owies, Acres.
Cats: Cameron, De Koning, C.Guthrie, Holmes, Smith.
GOALS
Blues: C.Curnow 5, Owies 3, Motlop, McKay, C.Durdin, Fisher, E.Curnow.
Cats: Cameron 6, O.Henry 2, Rohan, Blicavs, Close, Hawkins.
LATE CHANGE
Jack Martin (calf) replaced in Carlton’s selected side by Marc Pittonet.
UMPIRES
Power, Rosebury, O’Gorman, Williamson
VENUE
MCG
PLAYER OF THE YEAR
LERNER’S VOTES
3 Jeremy Cameron (Geel)
2 Charlie Curnow (Carl)
1 Adam Saad (Carl)
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