AFL betting picks: Glenn McFarlane, Jay Clark and Scott Gullan search for value in the 2022 season odds
Hawthorn is predicted to slide next year under new coach Sam Mitchell. And our experts believe punters can reap the rewards.
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Looking for value in the season-long betting race?
Scott Gullan, Glenn McFarlane and Jay Clark have crunched the numbers to bring you the best futures bets for the 2022 season.
Carlton and Essendon loom as some of the best options, while our experts are predicting Hawthorn to offer value for a different reason.
Find out their best bets for the top-eight, most losses, opening round head-to-head and more.
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TO MAKE TOP 8 (TAB)
Melbourne $1.10
Western Bulldogs $1.20
Brisbane $1.25
Port Adelaide $1.30
Geelong $1.35
Richmond $1.45
Sydney $1.50
West Coast $2
Greater Western Sydney $2.10
Essendon $2.30
St Kilda $2.50
Carlton $3
Fremantle $3.25
Adelaide $5
Collingwood $6
Hawthorn $6
Gold Coast $7
North Melbourne $9
Jay Clark says:Fremantle to make the eight is one of the best value bets of the year at $3.25. They fell one win short last season and the expectations have risen despite the loss of Adam Cerra. Watch the kids blossom.
Scott Gullan says: Carlton ($3) and Fremantle ($3.25). The Blues can spike under new coach Michael Voss while the Dockers only need a good run with injury (ie a fit Nathan Fyfe) to be in the mix as long as they’re not forced into a Victorian hub.
Glenn McFarlane says: Hard to find much value here, but let’s have a crack at it. Richmond should be back in the eight again in 2022 after missing out last year, but the $1.45 on offer won’t make us rich in a hurry. The value might be Essendon ($2.30), if they can maintain their 2021 improvement. Yes, they haven’t won a final since John Howard was Prime Minister, but the growth of the Bombers’ young stars and the age bracket of their established stars means there is still more improvement left. They won 11 matches this season but were overrun by the Bulldogs in the elimination final. A finals win should be a pass mark for Ben Rutten.
TO MAKE TOP 4 (TAB)
Melbourne $1.60
Western Bulldogs $1.75
Brisbane $1.80
Port Adelaide $2.10
Geelong $2.50
Richmond $2.75
Sydney $3
West Coast $4.50
Greater western Sydney $5
Essendon $7
St Kilda $8
Carlton $8
Fremantle $9
Adelaide $15
Collingwood $15
Hawthorn $17
Gold Coast $21
North Melbourne $21
Jay Clark says: Will be shocked if the Western Bulldogs don’t cash in on the top-four at $1.75. It’s one for the season-long multis. West Coast catch the eye at $4 but how could anyone possibly know what the Eagles will deliver next year? Bank the Dogs.
Scott Gullan says:Geelong ($2.50): Plenty willing to jump off the Cats but the simple fact is they rarely lose at home and a full season from Jeremy Cameron, Mitch Duncan and Patrick Dangerfield (which didn’t happen in 2021) will see them win plenty of games.
Glenn McFarlane says: Load up on Melbourne ($1.60) and Western Bulldogs ($1.75) as money-for-jam options. Not completely sold on Brisbane and Port Adelaide (good teams but do they have the killer instinct?). So I could be tempted into having a smaller wager on two older teams – Richmond ($2.75) and Geelong ($2.50) – for value’s sake. The Tigers and Cats might have one more shot left in the chamber.
MOST LOSSES IN 2022 (TAB)
Melbourne $501
Western Bulldogs $251
Brisbane $251
Port Adelaide $251
Geelong $251
Richmond $151
Sydney $101
West Coast $81
Greater Western Sydney $67
Essendon $41
St Kilda $34
Carlton $26
Fremantle $15
Adelaide $7
Collingwood $5
Hawthorn $6
Gold Coast $3.50
North Melbourne $3
Jay Clark says: This is a development year for Hawthorn. Nothing against Sam Mitchell but the kids will get a big go. There will be adjustment phase. Reckon $6 is overs. Gold Coast under all sorts of pressure too.
Scott Gullan says:Hawthorn ($6). The Hawks rebuild could have a shaky start under new coach Sam Mitchell. The list looks vulnerable to a couple of early injuries plus there will likely be plenty of teething problems in post-Clarko life.
Glenn McFarlane says: Liked the way North Melbourne finished the second half of this year, so I’d be taking Gold Coast to have the most losses ($3.50). I’m still not sold on the Suns, though hopefully we might get to see some of their young guns such as Matt Rowell at their best in 2022.
ROUND 1 H2H
Melbourne v Western Bulldogs, MCG
Melbourne $1.60
Bulldogs $2.35
Carlton v Richmond, MCG
Carlton $3.10
Richmond $1.37
St Kilda v Collingwood, Marvel Stadium
St Kilda $1.65
Collingwood $2.25
Geelong v Essendon, MCG
Geelong $1.48
Essendon $2.65
GWS v Sydney, Accor Stadium Australia
GWS $2.00
Sydney $1.80
Brisbane v Port Adelaide, Gabba
Brisbane $1.60
Port Adelaide $2.35
Hawthorn v North Melbourne, MCG
Hawthorn $1.67
North Melb $2.20
Adelaide v Fremantle, Adelaide Oval
Adelaide $2.05
Fremantle $1.77
West Coast v Gold Coast
West Coast $1.24
Gold Coast $4.00
Jay Clark says: I’ll be taking the Bulldogs to flip the script in the season opener at $2.35 against Melbourne and Carlton is over the odds at $3.10 to cause a boil over against Richmond. Dream start for Michael Voss? They’re very healthy, the Blues.
Scott Gullan says:Western Bulldogs ($2.35) to beat Melbourne because the premiership hangover will kick in early for the Dees with Jamarra Ugle-Hagan kicking seven goals to open the season. Collingwood ($2.35) to beat St Kilda as I think Craig McCrae will get off to the flying start in his coaching career with Jordan De Goey best-on-ground.
Glenn McFarlane says: If I am talking about Essendon making the eight, then the Bombers will have to claim a few good scalps along the way. So why not get off to a flyer, and take out the Cats in Round 1? The Bombers are $2.65 in this game at the MCG. Playing on the road in week one is usually a little easier than it is later in the year, so I would also take Fremantle ($1.77) to beat Adelaide at the Adelaide Oval. Suspect they should be a lot shorter than that.
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