AFL 2023: The verdict on every game in Adelaide’s run home to the finals

Crows coach Matthew Nicks says every game left this season is a huge one, but which will determine whether they make the top eight? Check out our analysis of their run home.

Adelaide could be ahead of the curve when it comes to the race for finals or right on the edge in the fight for a top eight spot.

As Matthew Nicks said on Thursday nearly every game for the Crows is a big one on the run home this season.

There’s a Showdown, a trip to the MCG to take on Melbourne and a visit to the Gabba to face Brisbane.

But this Sunday’s clash against Essendon at Marvel Stadium looms as the fork in the road for the Crows on their run home.

Win and breaking the finals drought is within sight, lose and it gets hard.

Usually around 12 wins are required for a top eight spot.

With the extra game this year because of Gather Round 13 should do it.

With eight games remaining the Crows have eight wins.

It is already the Crows best return of win under Nicks.

And they should improve this in the final eight games.

But can they get enough wins to make the eight?

Here’s how Adelaide could fair in the race to 13 wins and which match-ups loom as the key games.

Can Izak Rankine lead the Crows to the finals? Picture: Mark Brake/Getty Images

Round 17 v Essendon @ Marvel Stadium

The first one looms as arguably the most important.

The Crows are seventh and the Bombers eighth on the same amount of wins.

But the Crows have only won once away from Adelaide Oval this year so this is something they need to rectify if they are going to get to the 13-win mark.

And outside of their final game of the season against West Coast, this might be their best chance of tasting victory on the road.

This is likely to set up the run home.

VERDICT: Win

Round 18 v GWS @ Adelaide Oval

The Giants have actually been a bogey side for the Crows in recent years, especially at Adelaide Oval.

And, while the Giants are right in the mix for finals after their stirring win over Melbourne in Alice Springs, Adelaide should be able to account for GWS at home this year.

VERDICT: Win

Round 19 v Melbourne @ MCG

Depending on how the Crows go against Essendon, they could either be coming into this game having finally tasted victory away from SA this year or still facing the questions about their ability to play away.

The Demons aren’t going great themselves, and will likely be still missing star Clayton Oliver, but they will start as the favourites against Adelaide at the MCG.

VERDICT: Loss

Round 20 v Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval

You never know in a Showdown.

But after they were shocked by the Crows in Round 3 this year, in a game in which they wore the historic prison bar guernsey, expect the Power to be out for revenge.

The Power have been flying this season and it should be an absolute cracker, but Port will probably have the edge in this.

VERDICT: Loss

The Crows celebrate their Showdown win earlier this season. (Photo by Mark Brake/Getty Images)

Round 21 v Gold Coast @ Adelaide Oval

Either the Suns could still be in the finals mix or facing more questions about the future of senior coach Stuart Dew.

And while they have played well at Adelaide Oval in the past, the Crows will be expecting to win this one.

This should be one the Crows bank.

VERDICT: Win

Round 22 v Brisbane @ Gabba

On paper, this is probably the toughest test Adelaide has in its run home.

The Lions are formidable at the Gabba and will be on the hunt for a top-four, or even a top-two, finish.

It’s hard to see the Crows winning this one.

VERDICT: Loss

Round 23 v Sydney @ Adelaide Oval

Grand finalists last year, the Swans’ season is pretty much cooked after their loss to Richmond on Thursday night.

This means they will probably have nothing to play for, while for the Crows, they will be hoping to keep their finals hopes alive.

VERDICT: Win

Taylor Walker kicked 10 against the Eagles last month – can he have another day out in Round 23? Picture: James Elsby/AFL Photos

Round 24 v West Coast @ Optus Stadium

Yes it’s away, but the Eagles will have one eye on their mad Monday celebrations – if they are allowed to have them at all after a shocking season.

If the Crows are level on points with another side going into the match, this could be a nice percentage booster.

VERDICT: Win

From that, the Crows should win four of their last eight games, giving them 12 wins.

That might be enough to sneak into the top eight on percentage.

But to make it a lot more comfortable, it looks like the Crows will either have to get a win against Essendon at Marvel, in the Showdown, against Melbourne at the MCG or against Brisbane at the Gabba.

On paper, the Bombers at Marvel looks like the most achievable.

It’s going to be more than a four-pointer for the Crows on Sunday.

Originally published as AFL 2023: The verdict on every game in Adelaide’s run home to the finals