AFL 2022: Semi-final previews for Melbourne v Brisbane Lions and Collingwood and Fremantle
With Taylor Adams out and former assistant Justin Longmuir holding key intel, Collingwood’s semi-final task is a difficult one. Here’s what needs to happen.
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Collingwood and Melbourne will need to regroup quickly if they are to avoid going out in straight sets when they face the Brisbane Lions and Fremantle who are hungry for more success.
Check out our comprehensive guides to the first and second semi-finals.
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MELBOURNE v BRISBANE LIONS
Second semi-final, MCG, Friday 7.50pm
TALKING POINTS
Sledging semi showdown
There should be plenty of feeling in this match after what went down the last time the teams met in round 23 at the Gabba. Brisbane Lions captain Dayne Zorko copped plenty of heat for reducing Melbourne defender Harrison Petty to tears after taking aim at the Demon’s mother in a derogatory slur, which he later apologised for. Zorko acknowledged he had “crossed the line”, but also claimed that it was not an “unprovoked sledge” and there had been plenty fired back in the other direction. So, will the Demons go after Zorko, or will the players bite their tongues and let their football do the talking in a high-stakes semi?
Demon dilemma
Does Melbourne roll the dice on forward Tom McDonald? The Demons again struggled up forward in their qualifying final loss to Sydney, scoring from just 35 per cent of their inside 50s. Bayley Fritsch top-scored for the Demons with three goals, but Ben Brown (one goal), Jake Melksham and Kysaiah Pickett (one goal) struggled to have an impact. McDonald resumed in the VFL last week after three months out with a Lisfranc foot injury, but did not have a match at the weekend to push his selection case. Do the Demons take a punt on the premiership forward, who had kicked 15 goals for the season before succumbing to injury, or does youngster Jacob van Rooyen — an emergency against Sydney — come into the selection frame? The Demons also have fringe goal sneak Toby Bedford, a regular in the medi-sub role this season, waiting in the wings.
Into the MCG den
If it’s not questions about the Brisbane Lions’ finals record, it’s questions about their record at the MCG. The Lions might have improved their finals record under coach Chris Fagan to 2-5 with their thrilling elimination-final win over Richmond at the Gabba last Thursday, but there is no hiding from the team’s recent track record at the MCG. Brisbane has not won a match at the MCG since round 21, 2014, against Collingwood, losing their past 11 matches at the hallowed ground. But if the Lions want to shake off their tag as September chokers once and for all, they will have to overcome their MCG hoodoo to do it.
Dusted up Demons
The Dees stormed into last year’s Grand Final off the back of big qualifying and preliminary final wins, but the premiers will have to do it the hard way this season. The Demons were left battered and bruised after their qualifying final loss to Sydney with midfield star Christian Petracca (hairline fibula fracture and corked calf) the biggest injury concern. Melbourne’s record against the top-eight teams has also been exposed with the Demons’ slumping to a 5-7 record against the finals contenders after their loss to the Swans.
Betting
Melbourne: $1.35
Brisbane Lions: $3.20
Key players
MELBOURNE: CLAYTON OLIVER
If he wasn’t important enough already, Demon dynamo Clayton Oliver will be even more critical against the Lions with his midfield partner-in-crime Christian Petracca under an injury cloud. Oliver was a warrior against the Swans, finishing the match with 29 disposals, two goals, eight clearances and bandaging wrapped around his head and face to stem the bleeding from his wounds of battle. Even if Petracca does get up for the match with a hairline fibula fracture and corked calf, his influence could be diminished.
BRISBANE: DARCY FORT
The loss of frontline ruckman Oscar McInerney to concussion was a massive blow for the Lions, but Brisbane coach Chris Fagan has already named the former Geelong big man as the replacement for the ‘big O’. And Fort is going to walk straight into the fire against Dees captain and All-Australian ruckman Max Gawn and Luke Jackson. Fort had been due to play for the Lions’ VFL team at the weekend, but was pulled to prepare for the big assignment.
Players who need to step up
MELBOURNE: BEN BROWN
The key forward struggled to make an impact against the Swans, finishing with only one goal and seven disposals, but supply wasn’t always plentiful. But Melbourne coach Simon Goodwin backed Brown to rebound against the Lions. “We need him so he’ll continue to forge ahead with his game,” Goodwin said.
BRISBANE LIONS: RHYS MATHIESON
He referred to himself as ‘The Barometer’ last year, but Lions midfielder Mathieson would be wanting to deliver more than his 14-disposal performance against Richmond.
The match up
ANGUS BRAYSHAW V LACHIE NEALE
Brownlow medallist Neale was enormous in the Lions’ elimination final win over Richmond, finishing the match with 39 disposals and 15 clearances. Brayshaw was given the job on the star midfielder the last time the teams met in round 23 at the Gabba and James Harmes in their earlier meeting in round 15. After a subdued performance against Sydney, Brayshaw would be looking to bounce back — and there would be no bigger scalp to take than against the Lions’ midfield machine.
Injury room
MELBOURNE
The Demons revealed at the weekend Petracca had a hairline fracture of his fibula, which the club said would not rule him out of selection for the semi-final. But respected sports medico Dr Peter Larkins has warned a hairline fracture could become a “complete break” if he suffered another knock. Of more concern for the Demons was the corked calf Petracca suffered in the opening quarter against the Swans. Charlie Spargo spent Friday night in hospital after suffering a suspected Larynx injury and Bayley Fritsch and Jake Melksham were also booked in for knee scans, but they are all expected to be fit to take on the Lions. Goodwin was non-committal on McDonald’s prospects of a return, saying he was “still a fair way off last week” and would see how he trained this week.
BRISBANE LIONS
Ruckman Oscar McInerney will be sidelined for the semi-final showdown after suffering concussion in the opening minutes of the elimination final win over Richmond. He will enter the league’s 12-day concussion protocols. The Lions will also regain midfielder Cam Rayner and Noah Answerth for the clash after both serving one-match bans
PREDICTION
Melbourne by 9
The Demons made a meal of the Lions with a 58-point win at the Gabba in the final round of the home-and-away season, but will now have the benefit of playing on home turf. The Dees have the defensive strength to quell the Lions’ dangerous forwards, but will need to shut down Neale.
COLLINGWOOD V FREMANTLE
First semi final, MCG, Saturday 7.25pm
TALKING POINTS
How will Collingwood respond to Fly’s spray?
Either it is an inspired way to literally get his plays off the mat or it’s a strange thing to bring up in a post-game media conference.
After going down to Geelong in an all-time thriller Pies coach Craig McRae took aim at some of his players for falling to the ground when the final siren sounded.
“For me that’s not a winner. That’s acting like a loser. We lost the game but we’re not losers,” McRae said.
The first-year coach has been spot on with his messaging to the Magpies players both in and after games this season.
Will this continue the trend or will it be a rare mistake by McRae?
How will Fremantle start the match?
The Dockers were like stunned mullets in the opening quarter and a half at Optus Stadium, letting the Western Bulldogs get out to a 41-point lead.
Was it some nerves, with it being Fremantle’s first finals appearance since 2015, for the youthful side?
Whatever it was the Dockers finals campaign was in real danger of ending at the first hurdle.
Justin Longmuir’s side was able to sensationally get back into the match and take down the Bulldogs, but it’s unlikely Collingwood would do the same and give up such a big lead.
Who steps up for Taylor Adams?
Compounding a heartbreaking loss for the Pies was that Adams has potentially torn his groin off the bone when he went down in the fourth quarter.
Adams has been Collingwood’s best clearance player this season, averaging 5.3 clearances from his 22.2 disposals.
The Dockers have an incredible midfield, with Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong immense to drag them back into the match against the Dogs while David Mundy and Will Brodie love winning the ball.
So how can the Pies overcome the loss of their best contested midfielder in the do-or-die match?
Can Longmuir go to school on his former side?
Longmuir was the mastermind behind the solid defence that was Nathan Buckley’s Collingwood.
The Magpies might have a new senior coach this year, and are playing more attacking footy, but Longmuir would still know many of the Pies big guns from his time as an assistant from 2017 to 2020 and their weaknesses.
Can he use his inside knowledge of the Pies to come up with a plan to down his former employers?
Betting
Collingwood $1.50
Fremantle $2.65
Key players
COLLINGWOOD:JORDAN DE GOEY
For all his off-field issues, Jordan De Goey again reminded everyone against Geelong that he is a damn good footy player when he gets going.
The 26-year-old finished with 26 disposals, two goals, eight clearances and seven score involvements to nearly win the Pies the qualifying final against the Cats.
With Adams out Collingwood will be looking for De Goey to at least match this effort against the Dockers.
The only issue for the Magpies is that De Goey might be under an injury cloud after he underwent scans on a potential shoulder issue on Sunday.
FREMANTLE: CALEB SERONG
Brayshaw is the star in the Dockers midfield but Caleb Serong is becoming one of the most important players in there.
The former Rising Star winner had 10 clearances in the Dockers thrilling come from behind win against the Bulldogs, four more than his next best teammate in Mundy.
Brayshaw is the one who is getting the plaudits and attention, but don’t underestimate just how important Serong is to the Dockers.
Players to step up
COLLINGWOOD: JACK CRISP
Someone will need to replace Adams’ grunt work in the midfield and the Magpies will be looking for Jack Crisp to stand up.
Had a solid enough game against Geelong with 23 disposals and a goal but the Magpies will be looking for more from Crisp with a big hole now in their midfield.
Crisp had four clearances against the Cats, he will need to improve this against the Dockers.
Rory Lobb – The forward/ruck might be the barometer for the Dockers.
He had just the five touches and was goalless in the first half against the Bulldogs but kicked two key goals and had some big marks in the second-half comeback.
If the Dockers can get on top in the midfield, then they will need Lobb to be on song to make this count against the Collingwood defence.
The match-up
SEAN DARCY V DARCY CAMERON
The Fremantle ruckman was able to absolutely monster Tim English as the Dockers fought back from 41-points down.
Cameron has performed incredibly in the absence of Brodie Grundy, but Darcy will be a big test for the Pies big man.
Ruck advantage is always debated in the game today, but this battle could be a big one.
Injury list
COLLINGWOOD
Taylor Adams (groin)
Brodie Grundy (ankle)
Jordan De Goey (shoulder)
Tom Wilson (back)
Reef McInnes (shoulder)
Harvey Harrison (hamstring)
Charlie Dean
Adams’ season is over after he suffered a groin injury against Geelong, with the Pies saying he might have torn the groin off the bone.
De Goey looks to be under an injury cloud after he had scans on Sunday so the Pies will be sweating on his fitness.
Grundy is out for the season with his ankle issue.
FREMANTLE
Nat Fyfe (hamstring)
Matt Taberner (calf)
The Dockers will have to make a call on whether Taberner returns for the Pies clash.
Jye Amiss performed well in his place, kicking two important goals, so it will be a tough decision for the Dockers.
Fyfe is still under a cloud after he hurt his hamstring.
The Dockers have said they hope he can play some part in the finals series, but it is unsure whether it is this week.
PREDICTION
This should continue the theme of the absolute classics we have had this finals series. The MCG should give the Magpies the advantage but the Dockers have shown they can win a big game at the grand final venue. Adams’ injury might be too much for the Pies to overcome, especially if De Goey joins him on the sidelines.
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