AFL 2022: Preliminary final previews for Geelong v Brisbane Lions and Sydney v Collingwood
Will Geelong bring in a known stopper to take on Lachie Neale? And how will the Swans and Pies line-up? All predicted changes inside.
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And suddenly there where just four.
We break down the key components of each team, the selection issues, injury updates, betting and the all-important verdicts for the two preliminary finals.
GEELONG V BRISBANE
First preliminary final, MCG, Friday 7.50pm
THE MATCH-UP
Mark O’Connor v Lachie Neale
O’Connor was the medical sub for Geelong against Collingwood, but the Irish Cat has had success on Brisbane’s star midfielder in the past.
So if he is in the 22, what way will Chris Scott look to use O’Connor on Neale in the preliminary final.
O’Connor has been the one Scott has sent to Neale when the Cats and Lions have met.
At first it was a pure tagging role for O’Connor on the former Brownlow Medallist last year, keeping Neale to just the 16 disposals at GMHBA Stadium in the Round 2 meeting between the two.
But when the Cats and Lions clashed in April this year O’Connor, in his first game of the season after a knee injury delayed his start to the year, didn’t play a shutdown role on Neale.
Instead, Scott urged O’Connor to use his running power and hurt Neale offensively.
O’Connor had 22 disposals and five inside 50s, while Neale had an influence in traffic with 30 disposals, 21 contested possessions and 11 clearances.
But Scott said Neale wasn’t “breaking the lines in space” with O’Connor’s attention.
Melbourne was able to keep Neale quiet in the first half when Angus Brayshaw ran with him, but when Tom Sparrow went to him at the second half the Lion was able to get off the leash.
Can O’Connor go with Neale the entire game?
THE TALKING POINT
Can the Lions get Berry off?
He played a starring role in the Lions win over the Demons with a supreme second-half performance on Clayton Oliver.
But Jarrod Berry is in serious danger of missing the preliminary final after making “unreasonable or unnecessary contact to the eye region” of Oliver.
He has been offered a one-match ban, and Brisbane will almost certainly challenge it to try and get him out of the suspension.
Can the Lions successfully appeal the ban?
Berry himself said following the win over the Demons said there was “nothing purposeful” in the apparent eye gouge on Oliver.
But Melbourne legend Garry Lyon said it would be tough.
“I don’t want to use the word eye gouge,” he said on Fox Footy.
“But any motion around the eye, the MRO look on it very, very sternly.”
Ex-Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley said it was a “really poor moment” for Berry, while former St Kilda champion Nick Riewoldt believed Brisbane would argue that Berry was “defenceless on the ground”.
“You have to take in due consideration that Berry is on his back and Oliver has his arm on his face and his throat,” he said.
SELECTION
GEELONG
FB: Z.Tuohy, S.De Koning, J.Bews
HB: M.Duncan, J.Henry, T.Stewart
C: I.Smith, J.Selwood, M.Holmes
HF: B.Close, J.Cameron, G.Myers
FF: T.Stengle, T.Hawkins, G.Rohan
FOL: R.Stanley, M.Blicavs, P.Dangerfield
IC: Z.Guthrie, M.O’Connor, C.Guthrie, T.Atkins
IN: M.O’Connor
OUT: J.Kolodjashnij (injured)
The Cats have the luxury of a week off but it still might not be enough for Jake Kolodjashnij.
The defender suffered a knee injury in the second term of the qualifying final against Collingwood and while he tried to bravely battle through it he was replaced by O’Connor later in the quarter.
Positive scans mean that the Cats are yet to rule a line through the defender for the preliminary final.
But O’Connor’s success against Neale means the Cats might not take the risk with Kolodjashnij.
BRISBANE
FB: D.Gardiner, J.Payne, D.Rich
HB: B. Starcevich, H. Andrews, K.Coleman
C: Z.Bailey, R.Mathieson, C.Rayner
HF: D.Zorko, E.Hipwood, D.Robertson
FF: D.McStay, J.Daniher, C.Cameron
FOL: O.McInerney, L.Neale, H.McCluggage
IC: C. Ah Chee, L. McCarthy, N.Answerth, D.Wilmot
IN: J.Daniher, O. McInerney, R. Mathieson
OUT: T. Fullarton (omitted), D.Fort (omitted), J.Berry (suspended)
The Lions should get two big inclusions with ruckman Oscar McInerney to return after a concussion and Joe Daniher after the birth of his child. Tom Fullarton was the replacement for Daniher and is likely to be the one that accommodates the star forward’s return. Darcy Fort was good against Melbourne but McInerney should come straight back in. The Lions will have a decision to make between Rhys Mathieson and Mitch Robinson if Jarrod Berry is suspended. Apart from that the Lions won’t have other changes to make given how well they are going at the moment.
CASUALTY LIST
GEELONG
Jake Kolodjashnij (knee) test
Flynn Kroeger (knee) season
Cooper Whyte (groin) season
BRISBANE
Oscar McInerney (concussion) test
Marcus Adams (concussion) season
Kalin Lane (knee) season
THE ODDS (TAB)
Geelong $1.29
Brisbane $3.60
LAST TIME
Round 4: Geelong 11.14 (80) and Brisbane 11.4 (70) at GHMBA Stadium
Geelong – Tom Hawkins five goals, Issac Smith 29 possessions; Gryan Miers 25 possessions
Brisbane – Joe Daniher, Daniel McStay three goals; Lachie Neale 30 possessions
VERDICT
Geelong 10
The Cats have been the best team of 2022 and expect this to continue against Brisbane at the MCG.
The Lions will be on a high, but Geelong’s class should secure a grand final spot.
SYDNEY v COLLINGWOOD
Second preliminary final, SCG, Saturday 4.45pm
THE MATCH-UP
Jordan De Goey v Tagger
After two starring roles in Collingwood’s September campaign so far, Jordan De Goey shapes as a matchwinner for the Magpies as they chase their first grand final berth since 2018. De Goey has been one of the Pies’ best with 26 disposals and two goals in the qualifying final loss to Geelong and 24 disposals and one goal in the semi-final win over the Dockers. Ryan Clarke has been Sydney’s go-to man for tagging roles and the dangerous De Goey could find himself as a candidate for close attention. Sydney star Callum Mills could be another likely candidate for the role in his All Australian year. Clarke was given the job on young star Nick Daicos when the teams last met in round 22, but De Goey’s form is likely to be deemed worthy of a shutdown job this time.
THE TALKING POINT
Can the Magpies’ high octcane game style stack up on the smaller dimensions of the SCG? Collingwood coach Craig McRae admitted after the Magpies’ round 22 loss to the Swans in the Harbour City that the confines of the SCG and the team’s system were not well suited.
“The expanses of the MCG allow us to spread the field,” McRae said after the clash.
“This ground didn’t allow us to do that but they (the Swans) didn’t allow us as well.
“They are certainly hard to beat on this ground.”
The Magpies lost the round 22 SCG match by 27 points. They again showed how at home they were at the MCG with their frenetic game style as they took the Dockers down.
But after orchestrating the club’s rise from 17th to preliminary finalist in the space of one year, McRae is sure to have brainstormed a plan to make the Magpies’ style more adaptable to the ground.
SELECTION
SYDNEY
B: D. Rampe, T. McCartin, N. Blakey
HB: J. Lloyd, P. McCartin, J. McInerney
C: E. Gulden, C. Warner, C. Mills
HF: I. Heeney, S. Reid, W. Hayward
F: T. Papley, L. Franklin, R. Clarke
R: T. Hickey, L. Parker, J. Rowbottom
Int: R. Fox, O. Florent, L. McDonald, D. Stephens
Sub: B. Campbell
Emg: H. Cunningham, H. McLean, B. Campbell, S. Wicks
NO CHANGE
Barring injury, it’s unlikely the Swans would want to tinker with their winning line-up from their qualifying final victory against Melbourne. But there are players on the fringe still fighting to force their way in. Hayden McLean had four goals and Braeden Campbell 24 disposals and a goal in the VFL last week as they pushed their case for selection.
COLLINGWOOD
B: B. Maynard, D. Moore, J. Howe
HB: N. Daicos, N. Murphy, J. Crisp
C: W. Hoskin-Elliott, S. Pendlebury, J. Noble
HF: J. De Goey, D. Cameron, B. McCreery
F: A. Johnson, B. Mihocek, S. Sidebottom
R: M. Cox, J. Elliott, J. Daicos
Int: P. Lipinski, I. Quaynor, T. Bianco, J. Ginnivan
Emg: N. Kreuger, O. Henry, C. Brown, J. Carmichael
Sub: J. Carmichael
NO CHANGE
Hard to see the Magpies making any changes to their winning semi-final line-up. Trent Bianco replaced the injured Taylor Adams and did enough with his 16 disposals, seven contested, and five marks to hold his place. Carmichael was the sub against the Dockers, but Oliver Henry is another option for the role.
CASUALTY LIST
SYDNEY
Oliver Florent (foot) test
Josh Kennedy (hamstring) season
Peter Ladhams (suspension) 2 matches
COLLINGWOOD
Taylor Adams (groin) season
Jeremy Howe (shoulder) test
THE ODDS (TAB)
MATCH
Sydney – $1.40
Collingwood – $3
PREMIERSHIP
Sydney – $3
Collingwood – $5.50
LAST TIME
Round 22: Sydney 11.11 (77) d Collingwood 7.8 (50) at the SCG
Sydney – Lance Franklin three goals; Isaac Heeney, Tom Papley two goals; Callum Mills 29 possessions, Luke Parker 26 possessions, Chad Warner 25 possessions.
Collingwood – Scott Pendlebury 26 possessions, Josh Daicos 25 possessions.
VERDICT
Collingwood 2
The Magpies have defied expectations this season and proven their ability to win the tight ones. This assignment won’t be easy, but the Magpies have the weapons to get the job done against the Swans on their home turf and will have learned from the round 22 SCG loss.
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