AFL 2022: Essendon list analysis, top free agency targets analysed

With Andrew McGrath likely to re-sign despite rival interest, we look at which players Essendon could move on to fast-track its rebuild.

Skipper Dyson Heppell is out of contract at the end of the year.

Michael Malthouse boldly declared Essendon his premiership favourite this year but the reality is the Bombers are in year two of a rebuild.

There is a nucleus of exciting young talent such as Nik Cox, Archie Perkins, Zach Reid, Harry Jones and Ben Hobbs, and another high-end talent will walk through the door this year. But there are also big holes to fill.

Essendon need a key forward, a small pressure forward and a quality rebounding defender. Another big-bodied clearance winner would also be handy but Hobbs could blossom into that type of player.

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It’s not all going to happen at once, and who knows what would have been in store if they had actually held on to Adam Saad, Joe Daniher and Orazio Fantasia amid the hub debacle?

When they left, it called for another list reset.

That was on top of the one that had to happen on the back of the supplement scandal.

It’s been a trying time for the Bombers who haven’t won a final since 2004.

But the future looks bright, and when they get 60-80 games into Cox and Co those young cornerstone players will start to deliver more consistently and the real climb up the ladder can begin.

The defence has also been a headache for Essendon for years and Reid is important to the long-term defensive plans.

There is also pressure on the game style and coaching department to embed a system that can be counted on to stymie the opposition.

Credit to the club for unearthing Nic Martin, who is one of the frontrunners for the Rising Star award, as well as Will Snelling and Sam Durham from the mid-season draft.

They found Sam Draper from nowhere, too, and he could yet become a key leader for the club as well as one of the league’s best ruckmen.

But the bumpy ride is set to continue for a couple more years yet as they look to draft in another outstanding youngster and target some key role players in the 23-26-year-old bracket.

Essendon midfielder Andrew McGrath is out of contract and making the club wait.

Who is out of contract?

ANDREW McGRATH

The No. 1 draft pick previously hailed as a captain-in-waiting at Essendon is making the Bombers sweat on a new deal.

Richmond and St Kilda have been linked to moves on McGrath but the Bombers are unlikely to consider trading the dashing defender/rebounder.

Has been OK without setting the world on fire this season, but the whole Essendon midfield has underperformed, with Ben Rutten demanding a lift from his senior core.

AARON FRANCIS

Faces an uncertain future at Essendon after being dropped on the back of a pair of four-possession games.

The Bombers originally took him at pick six but could consider off-loading the South Australian swingman when his contract expires at season’s end.

Had a couple of big games in defence in previous years, but the Bombers have swung him into attack this year without much success.

The South Australian clubs may be tempted to offer up a late second or third-round pick or thereabouts for the 24-year-old who has played 54 career games.

TOM CUTLER

Dropped for the round 11 clash against Port Adelaide after 15 possessions in the 32-point loss to Richmond the week before.

Came across from Brisbane Lions at the end of 2019, but has been in and out of the team on the wing.

Essendon face big decisions on which players can take the club forward.

Tom Cutler has found it difficult to tie down a permanent position at Essendon.

Which Bombers are up for grabs?

Devon Smith has one year left to run on his deal but will be up for trade at season’s end.

The question is whether there will be any takers amid an ongoing battle with a knee injury. Won a best and fairest applying white-hot tackling pressure in a forward-midfield role but it seems some of that sting has gone from his legs.

Very good player in his prime.

The Bombers coughed up two first-round picks for Dylan Shiel but the jet midfielder hasn’t had the impact he would have liked in recent seasons.

He was mocked by Sydney Swans hard nut Luke Parker for a contest at the SCG in Round 9, but even if the Bombers wanted to drop him from the best 23 there hasn’t been the depth of talent or performance at VFL level to bring in adequate replacements.

Has two more years to run on a mega six-year deal.

The Bombers have shown plenty of faith in Aaron Francis but there will likely be an opportunity to pursue a fresh start if he wants one.

Besides his best and fairest year Devon Smith has struggled to maintain consistency.

Who the Bombers should target?

After missing out on Harry McKay and Ben King, it is clear the Bombers need a key forward to replace Joe Daniher, who moved to Brisbane.

But Essendon will not want to part with its top draft pick this either in a blockbuster trade, unless they can get someone like Melbourne’s Sam Weideman on the cheap, or as part of the Francis swap.

He is an obvious target and would be guaranteed to play every game in red and black. Brisbane’s Dan McStay is a free agent and would cost nothing in terms of a trade but there is a big queue for his signature.

The Bombers need a small pressure forward to replace Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Isaac Mosquito.

West Coast’s Jack Petruccelle may appeal as well as Melbourne’s Toby Bedford from left field, but the big watch is on GWS Giant Bobby Hill, who was unsuccessful in his bid to cross to Essendon in last year’s trade period.

Hill is recovering from surgery to remove testicular cancer. There is no time frame on his return.

The final target for Essendon is a sweet-kicking half back to bolster their rebounding stocks. The Dogs are faced with a salary cap squeeze, meaning free agent Bailey Dale is looming large for rivals.

Dale would fit in beautifully at The Hangar, with ample cap space to accommodate a long-term contract.

Club favourite Michael Hurley is desperately trying to get back but it seems a long shot.

Free agents

DYSON HEPPELL (Unrestricted)

Captains rarely leave their clubs, especially ones who have shown as much loyalty as Dyson Heppell over the journey.

He could have bailed amid the supplements saga but stayed to help hold the club together. Deserves another crack at finals before he retires, but Essendon may only want to commit to a one-year extension at this point.

MICHAEL HURLEY (Unrestricted)

Expected to retire at season’s end after a nasty blood infection stemming from a hip issue wiped out his 2021 season.

Trying to build in his return but it seems a long shot that he will get a comeback game at AFL level.

Hopefully he plays another competitive game in the VFL. Turned down a whopping offer from the Bulldogs to stay at Tullamarine at his peak.

ALEC WATERMAN(Unrestricted)

Fringe player has been handy at times in the forward half, booting eight goals in the first three games of this season. Only 25 years old and is clearly enough to continue on at the top level with a bit of luck on the injury front. Hasn’t been easy playing forward in the red and black this year.