AFL 2021 model: Quarantine hubs must be considered if a ‘worst-case scenario’ strikes league, says Jeff Kennett, Peter Gordon
The AFL is planning for more hub football next year, in a worst case scenario that could see players reach their tipping point and walk away from the game. READ THE 2021 PLAN HERE.
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Contingency plans for another AFL season using interstate hubs are being explored in the event of a fresh COVID-19 outbreak next winter.
Hawks president Jeff Kennett and Bulldogs counterpart Peter Gordon have confirmed modelling for next season includes the “worst-case scenario” of a return to hubs to keep the 2021 season alive.
But the league is still eyeing a season launch at the MCG in late March where Richmond will unveil two premiership flags against Carlton.
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A decision on the length of the 2021 season and the length of quarters is expected by early December.
This year’s late finish could also mean some senior players may not begin pre-season training until January.
A standoff between the AFL and the AFL Players Association over list sizes and next year’s salary cap still threatens to complicate next week’s trade period.
Asked about the prospect of hubs in 2021, Gordon told the Herald Sun: “Could there be another spike? Sadly, yes. Everyone needs to be vigilant, because we all understand that this is a pretty vicious and highly infectious virus — and that there are many parts of the world that thought that they had it under control and then it got out of control again.”
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“There has been discussion in the AFL about scenarios where hubs become necessary again in 2021. Obviously if there was another breakout in Victoria, then we would have to consider a hub situation again.
“No-one wants that, and the experience of 2020 demonstrates that while that is horrendously expensive, it’s actually a better economic option than closing things down.
“It’s better for the AFL because it keeps the show on the road. It’s better for players because it means they still get paid and it’s better for fans because, speaking as a fan myself, it was one bright spot in the nights of the bleakest winter I can ever remember. I’m grateful to everyone in the AFL who made it happen at all.”
Kennett said: “I am hopeful that in Victoria we will get back to 50 per cent crowds (next season), but the worst scenario would be if we had to go back into a hubs situation — that not only increases costs but it dislocates the game again.”
“That said, at this stage, with a few blanks to be filled in, I’m fairly optimistic we will get back to a full-round next year, 20-minute quarters and a daytime Grand Final.
“Hubs are one of the options that the AFL has discussed. All of those things are up in the air but the modelling has been done. Hopefully that won’t happen.”
Asked if players and coaches would be willing to enter hubs again, Kennett said: “They would have no option. They are paid to be professionals. They’ve got to perform regardless.”
Gordon added: “Everyone has a tipping point and there’s no guarantee that some of the players might say; ‘Not again; we’ve had enough’.
“And you could understand that ….it’s been bloody hard. But if our industry were in that situation, the players would be saying so understanding that it may be their decision was also obliterating the AFL’s ability to pay them.”
Gordon said the virus “seems to get out of control more as the weather turns colder”.
“So no-one in the AFL industry can afford to be complacent that a winter sport like AFL in 2021 may not be subject to severe disruption with a minimum of notice … maybe even in May or June of next year, and maybe when we thought we had it beaten.
“I think we need to be very wary of the notion that a vaccine or an elimination strategy is going to magically solve our problems one fine day.
“For that reason, every club and the AFL needs to be resolute about making every dollar that they can and saving every dollar that they can. ”
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SHEEDS, LETHAL: WHY 20-MINUTE QUARTERS MUST RETURN
Footy greats Kevin Sheedy and Leigh Matthews have urged the AFL to revert back to 20-minute quarters in 2021.
Speculation is mounting that reduced 18-minute quarters will be introduced next season – up slightly from this year’s radical shift to 16-minutes.
But Sheedy and Matthews – rivals who collectively won 15 premierships as a player or coach – want the league to restore normality to the competition after the most challenging season in history.
When the COVID-19 pandemic upended the 2020 season in March, the AFL moved to cut quarters to 16 minutes to ease the workload on players and allow for a heavily condensed fixture.
It included a Festival of Footy where 33 games were played across 20 consecutive days, which could still be replicated next year.
The AFL is yet to commit to a time frame for decisions on the make-up of the 2021 season, including the length of quarters.
It won’t be 16 minutes, but league boss Gillon McLachlan has hinted at 18 minutes.
“This has been such an unfamiliar year for obvious reasons, so I think 2021 should look as much like 2019 as we can make it,” Matthews told the Herald Sun.
“I agree with Leigh,” Sheedy said. “If it was up to me, I would (go back to 20 minutes).“
“So much of it depends on what happens with COVID next year.“
“I don’t think the AFL needs to rush a decision on that one. But I would take it back to 2019 (times).”
Matthews has long been an advocate for radical rule changes in order to combat congestion to improve the aesthetics of the game — but not next year.
He is happy to put those beliefs aside for at least another season in order to return the game to a sense of normalcy for the fans, depending on what happens with the country‘s COVID-19 numbers in 2021.
“I am a great believer that big significant change has to happen to make the game as good as it can be, but next year is not the year to do it,“ Matthews said.
“I wouldn’t be changing rules. I would be going back to 20-minute quarters. I would be going back to what was familiar for the fans in 2021.”
Hawthorn president Jeff Kennett said a shortened version of the game in 2021 was not acceptable.
“You can’t be half pregnant,” Kennett said.
“We had 16-minute quarters this year and in the main these guys play once a week, they get well reimbursed and we want to see a proper season and a return to full quarters of 20 minutes.”
Matthews and Sheedy said members should be at the forefront of AFL’s decision-making, given the overwhelming majority stayed solid without seeing a game live.
Another coaching great Denis Pagan called on the league to not mess with the fabric of the game in the wake of the coronavirus crisis back in May.
“I just hope the people (at the AFL) making the decisions accept that they don’t own the game,” Pagan said.
“They are only caretakers while they are in the positions they are in now. The game will look after itself. We don’t need to be changing things for the sake of it.”
Asked about a time frame on quarter lengths and fixturing last Saturday, McLachlan told 3AW: “We’ve got a bit of time, but probably by the end of November all that sort of stuff will need to be known.
“I think they are targeting the fixture for the end of November, early December. So obviously, you will need to know whether it’s a six-week rolling thing by then. The quarters … you’ll certainly need to know (by) pre-season, but I think that is something that can be done by the end of November.
“Certainly, most of those decisions I reckon will be made this year. ”