Which teams are still in finals contention? We look at who’s fighting for a top eight finish
THE RUN HOME: Six weeks ago no one gave Hawthorn or Sydney any chance of making the finals. But with eight rounds to go, both are knocking on the door. Can they pull it off?
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THE AFL finals are just eight weeks away.
Amazingly, there are still up to 14 teams in contention for September and seeing how this season has gone already, anything could happen.
We’ve looked at the top 14, with six teams still in sight of eight but sadly have farewelled Collingwood, North Melbourne, Carlton and Brisbane from calculations.
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Champion Data has also weighed in with each teams chances of making the eight, top four and top two.
Top-placed GWS is rated a 100 per cent chance of playing finals despite sitting just three and a half games ahead of ninth, while Fremantle — two games back of eighth but with an inferior percentage — is rated just a 1 per cent chance of seeing September.
Is your team a chance of September? Check out the run home and have your say.
1. GWS GIANTS (42PTS, 119.3%)
R16: Hawthorn (US)
R17: Sydney (SPO)
R18: Richmond (MCG)
R19: Fremantle (SPO)
R20: Melbourne (UNSW)
R21: Western Bulldogs (ES)
R22: West Coast (SPO)
R23: Geelong (SS)
MICK RANDALL SAYS: Injury-riddled and still top-of-the-table. A clash with a fired up Hawthorn down in Tasmania isn’t a fait accompli, but, if they can get the job done, it sets up a monster Battle of the Bridge with Sydney that could leave the Giants with a chance to knock their cross-town rivals out of the finals hunt.
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2. ADELAIDE CROWS (40PTS, 135.5%)
R16: Western Bulldogs (AO)
R17: Melbourne (TIO)
R18: Geelong (AO)
R19: Collingwood (MCG)
R20: Port Adelaide (AO)
R21: Essendon (ES)
R22: Sydney (AO)
R23: West Coast (S)
BEN HIGGINS SAYS: A top-two finish is there for the taking for the Crows but the draw hasn’t been kind. Given the Bulldogs form of late, a win looks a certainty. Clashes against Geelong at Adelaide Oval, Port Adelaide and West Coast at Subiaco are key.
3. GEELONG (38PTS, 113.3%)
R16: Brisbane (G)
R17: Hawthorn (MCG)
R18: Adelaide (AO)
R19: Carlton (ES)
R20: Sydney (SS)
R21: Richmond (SS)
R22: Collingwood (MCG)
R23: GWS Giants (SS)
MICK RANDALL SAYS: Could have and should have beaten GWS on the weekend, but the performance against the odds will give rise to a new confidence among the Cats’ faithful. They travel, again, to Brisbane this time but Joel Selwood is expected to play and a percentage boosting win is on the cards. Round 23 against GWS could well decide top spot.
4. RICHMOND (36PTS, 112.2%)
R16: St Kilda (ES)
R17: Brisbane (ES)
R18: GWS Giants (MCG)
R19: Gold Coast (MS)
R20: Hawthorn (MCG)
R21: Geelong (SS)
R22: Fremantle (S)
R23: St Kilda (MCG)
BEN HIGGINS SAYS: Will the win over Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval fuel the Tigers belief? We’ll find out this week with a clash against St Kilda that Richmond will be favourites for. A final month of Hawthorn, Geelong, Fremantle at Subiaco and the Saints again will decide top-four chances.
TOP FOUR HOPEFULS
The bottom four teams of the top eight are all locked on eight wins with Port Adelaide on top thanks to its vastly superior percentage. Richmond is just one game ahead in fourth with the Power, Demons and Eagles breathing down its neck. St Kilda looks the most vulnerable to slipping out of the finals with a tough month ahead.
5. PORT ADELAIDE (32PTS, 131.7%)
R16: West Coast (S)
R17: North Melbourne (AO)
R18: Melbourne (MCG)
R19: St Kilda (AO)
R20: Adelaide (AO)
R21: Collingwood (AO)
R22: Western Bulldogs (EU)
R23: Gold Coast (AO)
MICK RANDALL SAYS: Contenders or pretenders? It’s so hard to say. One thing they can’t do is beat teams in the top-eight. Fortunately, their run home gives them a huge chance to finish in the top four, with four clashes against fellow top eight teams and five games at home.
6. MELBOURNE (32PTS, 110.8%)
R16: Carlton (MCG)
R17: Adelaide (TIO)
R18: Port Adelaide (MCG)
R19: North Melbourne (BA)
R20: GWS Giants (UNSW)
R21: St Kilda (MCG)
R22: Brisbane (MCG)
R23: Collingwood (MCG)
BEN HIGGINS SAYS: Last week’s loss to Sydney couldn’t have been more poorly timed. After wins over the Bulldogs and West Coast in Perth, the Dees looked primed for a top-four tilt. With a reasonably soft run home, it’s still very much on the table.
7. WEST COAST (32PTS, 102.6%)
R16: Port Adelaide (S)
R17: Fremantle (S)
R18: Collingwood (ES)
R19: Brisbane (S)
R20: St Kilda (ES)
R21: Carlton (S)
R22: GWS Giants (SPO)
R23: Adelaide (S)
MICK RANDALL SAYS: It wasn’t at the MCG, but hey, a win in Melbourne is as good as gold when you’re the Eagles. They’re actually borderline OK at Etihad Stadium. With five of eight at Subiaco and clashes with Collingwood and St Kilda — who could both be cooked — to come at Etihad, top four is unlikely, but not completely out of the question.
8. ST KILDA (32PTS, 98.8%)
R16: Richmond (ES)
R17: Essendon (ES)
R18: Sydney (SCG)
R19: Port Adelaide (AO)
R20: West Coast (ES)
R21: Melbourne (MCG)
R22: North Melbourne (ES)
R23: Richmond (MCG)
BEN HIGGINS SAYS: A rousing win over Fremantle at Subiaco pushed the Saints into the eight and a game clear of Sydney and the Bulldogs. The next month — Richmond, Essendon, Sydney and Port Adelaide — will decide whether they stay there or not.
CAN THEY PULL IT OFF?
Locked on seven wins — one game behind eighth (and fifth, amazingly) — grand final combatants Sydney and the Western Bulldogs are battling just to feature in September after a shocking start and inconsistency respectively. The Swans are arguably the form team of the AFL since Round 6 but the Bulldogs are facing the very real possibility of becoming the first premier to miss the finals since Hawthorn in 2009.
9. SYDNEY (28PTS, 108.0%)
R16: Gold Coast (SCG)
R17: GWS Giants (SPO)
R18: St Kilda (SCG)
R19: Hawthorn (MCG)
R20: Geelong (SS)
R21: Fremantle (SCG)
R22: Adelaide (AO)
R23: Carlton (SCG)
MICK RANDALL SAYS: Any team that starts the season 0-6 should be a complete write-off. Not Sydney, they’ve gone 7-1 since Round 6. However, they could rue the SCG loss to Hawthorn with only four home games left and tough clashes with GWS, Geelong, the Hawks and Adelaide making it very tough for them to unseat a West Coast or St Kilda.
10. WESTERN BULLDOGS ( 28PTS, 96.6%)
R16: Adelaide (AO)
R17: Carlton (MCG)
R18: Gold Coast (CS)
R19: Essendon (ES)
R20: Brisbane (G)
R21: GWS Giants (ES)
R22: Port Adelaide (EU)
R23: Hawthorn (ES)
BEN HIGGINS SAYS: Crisis is sneaking up on the reigning premiers. Despite sitting 10th, a game and percentage out of eight, Champion Data still rates the Dogs a 51 per cent chance of playing finals. A loss to Adelaide looms large on Friday night but wins over the Blues, Suns, Bombers and Lions should follow before a tough finish.
JUST HANGING ON
The mathematical chances; Essendon, Gold Coast, Hawthorn and Fremantle. The Bombers certainly have the draw and percentage of make a play for September while the Suns, Hawks and Dockers will need a miracle. That said, can we ever discount Alastair Clarkson and his Hawks? A Round 23 clash against the Bulldogs could decide both teams’ fates.
11. ESSENDON (24PTS, 101.8%)
R16: Collingwood (MCG)
R17: St Kilda (ES)
R18: North Melbourne (ES)
R19: Western Bulldogs (ES)
R20: Carlton (MCG)
R21: Adelaide (ES)
R22: Gold Coast (MS)
R23: Fremantle (ES)
MICK RANDALL SAYS: Did the horror loss to Brisbane kill their finals hopes? You don’t give up six of the last seven goals to the bottom team without taking away mental scars. They get a chance to atone against a Collingwood side in even worse shape. It is a very soft draw home, with the only top-eight teams St Kilda and Adelaide among their last eight.
12. GOLD COAST (24PTS, 89.0%)
R16: Sydney (SCG)
R17: Collingwood (MS)
R18: Western Bulldogs (CS)
R19: Richmond (MS)
R20: Fremantle (S)
R21: Brisbane (G)
R22: Essendon (MS)
R23: Port Adelaide (AO)
BEN HIGGINS SAYS: Rated by Champion Data as just a 5 per cent chance of finals, the Suns will need a miracle and the draw doesn’t help. Clashes against fellow finals contenders Sydney, Western Bulldogs, Fremantle in WA and Essendon will be key.
13. HAWTHORN (24PTS, 82.5%)
R16: GWS Giants (US)
R17: Geelong (MCG)
R18: Fremantle (S)
R19: Sydney (MCG)
R20: Richmond (MCG)
R21: North Melbourne (US)
R22: Carlton (ES)
R23: Western Bulldogs (ES)
MICK RANDALL SAYS: As Clarko’s 300th looms, this is, once again, a season to marvel at. The mere fact they are still somehow in contention to play finals is a testament to Clarkson’s ability to reinvent his footy club. However, the Hawks have a nightmare five-week run that features top-four teams GWS, Geelong and Richmond, along with Freo at Subiaco and the Swans. Could well lose all five of them.
14. FREMANTLE (24PTS, 80.3%)
R16: North Melbourne (ES)
R17: West Coast (S)
R18: Hawthorn (S)
R19: GWS Giants (SPO)
R20: Gold Coast (S)
R21: Sydney (SCG)
R22: Richmond (S)
R23: Essendon (ES)
BEN HIGGINS SAYS: Unbelievably, the Dockers are just two games behind eighth but are rated just a 1 per cent chance of finals by Champion Data. A shocking percentage of 80.3 puts them firmly behind the eight ball.
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