The winners and losers in AFL fixture lottery in run to the finals

NORTH Melbourne has a dream draw but West Coast didn’t get any favours. Champion Data rates the fixture difficulty of every club in the run to finals. How did your team fare?

North Melbourne swamped Adelaide last weekend and could swamp plenty more teams this season. Picture: Luke Bowden

BEFORE you write North Melbourne off as a top eight contender, it may pay to take a closer look at what’s in front of them.

Based on where teams are on the ladder at the moment, the Kangaroos could come home with a wet sail.

Brad Scott’s team has played the top five teams on the ladder but none of the bottom six.

They don’t play another game against a top-four team have 10 games against rivals now placed ninth to 18th.

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The Roos have just five games against top-eight teams, including two against St Kilda.

By comparison, West Coast plays four against fellow top-four teams and eight against teams in the eight.

It means North Melbourne’s 2-5 start doesn’t look so bad, particularly as three of those losses were by one, three and five points.

The team that has copped the “bum rap” is the Brisbane Lions.

They have started the season with a difficult first seven rounds and will cop an even harder finish.

Geelong had to make hay while the sun shone, given they haven’t met Adelaide, Greater Western Sydney, Western Bulldogs or West Coast yet, but the Cats do play three of those at the soon to be re-opened Kardinia Park.

Richmond has had a favourable draw, which will continue, while Gold Coast’s run home makes them a strong chance to sneak into the eight.

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What this draw predictor from Champion Data does ­emphasise is GWS and Adelaide should maintain their positions in the top four, while Fremantle’s draw opens up considerably after a difficult opening.

As for the criteria behind Champion Data’s assessments, the draw difficulty from here on in is purely based on percentage (points for and against), not win/loss.

Given this, the hardest teams in the competition to play against are Port Adelaide, Adelaide, the Giants and Geelong.

The reason Gold Coast is ahead of GWS is the fact the Suns play Port Adelaide (which sits seventh in the ladder but is No.1 for percentage) twice, while GWS doesn’t met the Power again.

Winners and losers in run to finals

		RD 1-7	RD 8-23		RUN HOME
Ladder	Club	Rank	Rank	Top 8	9-14	Bot 4
4	West Coast	11	1	8	5	2
10	Melbourne	15	2	7	4	4
18	Brisbane	5	3	7	6	2
12	Essendon	18	4	8	4	3
3	Geelong	17	5	8	3	4
8	St Kilda	14	6	6	7	2
5	Western Bulldogs	16	7	7	5	3
15	Collingwood	9	8	6	6	3
16	Hawthorn	4	9	6	4	5
13	Carlton	6	10	7	5	3
17	Sydney	7	11	7	6	2
7	Port Adelaide	12	12	6	5	4
9	Fremantle	2	13	7	4	4
1	Adelaide	8	14	6	5	4
11	Gold Coast	13	15	6	5	4
2	GWS	3	16	7	4	4
6	Richmond	10	17	6	6	3
14	North Melbourne	1	18	5	6	4

Note: No.1 rank is hardest, No.18 is easiest

SOURCE: Champion Data