Sydney v Essendon: Swans in top form, Bombers out to end September drought

ESSENDON’S resurgence in 2017 has been remarbale but the Bombers haven’t won a final since 2004 and they face a massive task against Sydney, which is the form team of the competition.

Bombers midfielder Zach Merrett celebrates a goal. Picture: Getty Images

ESSENDON’S resurgence in 2017 has been remarkable after last year’s wooden spoon (in unique circumstances) but the last time the Bombers experienced September success was back in 2004.

But they face a massive task against Sydney, which is the form team of the competition.

FLYING UP: HOW ESSENDON GOT IT’S GROOVE BACK

0-6 START: HOW SWANS PULLED OFF FINALS MIRACLE

Scott Gullan answers the burning questions ahead of Saturday’s elimination final.

SYDNEY

Will Isaac Heeney be Sydney’s X-factor?

He ticks a lot of boxes. Third year, more than 50 games and an ability to play in multiple positions. We’ve seen it in bursts but you get the feeling the good looking rooster is preparing himself for that elevation to the next level. His ability to play as a third marking forward behind Lance Franklin and Sam Reid is crucial, while his ability to go into the middle of the ground and have an impact gives the Swans many different looks which can throw out their opposition.

What does John Longmire do with Kurt Tippett?

Big-time selection dilemma. Tippett has played the past four games after missing most of the season because of injury and then surprise, surprise he has another injury scare against Carlton. Sam Naismith was the man all season before a recent injury but he’s now back while Callum Sinclair filled the breach in their absence and looked like John Coleman a few weeks back kicking five against St Kilda. Has Tippett earnt the coach’s trust? I’d say no.

Isaac Heeney can be dangerous in the forward line. Picture: Phil Hillyard

WHAT: Sydney Swans v Essendon Bombers

WHERE: SCG

WHEN: Saturday September 9, 4:20pm (local time)

TICKETS: Final release Tuesday September 5

ESSENDON

Does the SCG hold any fears?

John Worsfold should have the Round 14 clash on rotation this week. Maybe he leaves out the final 20 seconds - Gary Rohan kicked goal after siren to win the game but the ball should never have been able to get to him. Before that inexplicable blunder, the Bombers had dominated for most of the game and led by 19 points in time-on of the last term. Their pace and the brilliance of Michael Hurley in defence were the stand-outs.

Should Jobe Watson be deployed as a tagger?

The retiring great has battled with form and injury in recent times. He can no longer play as a pure midfielder so John Worsfold should give him a job. Sydney captain Josh Kennedy has to be stopped if the Bombers are to have any chance. He’s not fast which suits Watson and lives at the coal face which is where the former Essendon skipper also thrives. It’s a big call to try something completely different in potentially Watson’s final game, but it’s big calls that win finals.

The Bombers lost to the Swans by one-point at the SCG the last time the teams met after Gary Rohan’s after-the-siren goal. Picture: AAP

THE ODDS

Head to head

Sydney $1.20

Essendon $4.75

Line

Sydney -34.5 $2

Essendon +34.5 $1.80

Margins

Sydney 40+ $2.25

Sydney 1-39 points $2.10

Draw $67

Essendon 1-39 points $5.50

Essendon 40+ $34

First goalscorer

Lance Franklin $5.25

Joe Daniher $7

Tom Papley $10

Josh Begley $10

Gary Rohan $11

Will Hayward $11

Sam Reid $11

James Stewart $11

— Odds: TAB

LAST TIME THEY MET

Sydney won 11.20 (86) to 12.13 (85) in Round 14 at the SCG

FORM WATCH

— After starting the season 0-6, the Swans only lost two more games in the next 16 matches, both to Hawthorn

— Sydney’s 14 wins included victories over top four teams Adelaide, Geelong, Richmond and GWS on the road

— The Swans have won their last six games at the SCG by an average of 57 points, but one of those wins was against the Bombers by just one-point

— Essendon finished the home-and-away season with three wins from the last four games, all against bottom 10 teams

— The Bombers have lost seven in a row against Sydney, the most recent win over the Swans was in 2011 at Docklands

— Sydney has a five-match winning streak over the Bombers at the SCG, dating back to 2010

THE STAT

Sydney – Ability to Absorb

The Swans have conceded a score from 42.3% of their oppositions inside 50s – ranked No.1 – and a goal from 21.6% of inside 50s – ranked No.1. Overall, they rank No.1 for points conceded.

Essendon – Efficiency

The Bombers have converted 50.9% of their inside 50s into a score – ranked No.1. They have also converted 38.4% of their forward half intercepts into a score – ranked No.1.

EARLY CALL

Sydney by 27

Originally published as Sydney v Essendon: Swans in top form, Bombers out to end September drought