Premiership will be won by team with a dominant ruckman, writes David King
Dominant ruckmen will be worth their weight (or height) in gold in 2019, according to DAVID KING, who explains how the new clearance rules will impact the game.
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Welcome to the era where dominant ruckman will rule the world.
The biggest bonus in AFL footy is the centre bounce goal, which is never an expected part of the scoring budget.
The new six-six-six rule is going to create tremendous usable space for all centre-bounce players and acres of field for the duelling wingman.
Immediately after the ruck hitout we will see midfielders bursting into vacant, undefended space that has been unsighted in the age of congestion.
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Gone are the extra players running in from the defensive end of the centre square, as they’re all engaged in one-on-one match-ups.
Expect almost all centre bounce clearances to become an inside-50 entry.
Minimal pressure once the initial clearance is won will mean they’ll be high quality and deep entries.
Winning centre bounce clearances has never been more important.
On average each team scores 10 points a game from centre bounce clearances, which is a figure that hasn’t changed for the best part of two decades.
Low numbers, but in a small margin industry the difference between Melbourne’s average of 16 points from centre bounce clearances is already a big advantage.
It’s about to get bigger.
A 50m square that basically becomes three versus three at ground level will showcase the AFL’s best midfielders genuinely head to head — players like Patrick Dangerfield, Nathan Fyfe and Steele Sidebottom.
Dominant ruckmen like Max Gawn, Aaron Sandilands, Brodie Grundy and Nic Naitanui will be worth their weight (or height) in gold.
Expect longer, wider taps to ensure a teammate taking possession is on the move and is almost unimpeded after the first possession.
If you cannot win the centre bounce hitout then you will be defending gravely, not saved by swarming numbers around the contest.
Gawn had almost 100 more centre bounce hit-outs than any other Ruckman last year.
He will be the most difficult influence to curb.
Tom Bellchambers, Todd Goldstein and then Grundy were the next best hit to advantage rucks at centre bounces in 2018, which may shock.
The Demons win 60 per cent of the centre bounce hit-outs, which is a massive advantage over teams like Sydney and GWS at 33 per cent.
The days of Shaun Grigg types having relative success as an undersized secondary ruckman are over and will change team selections.
Every team without a recognised primary or a capable secondary ruckman will be punished via centre bounces scores or forward half territory.
The umpires bouncing the Sherrin will be under significant pressure to execute as the advantages allowed for pure centre bounce clearance exits are huge.
I’m expecting the average scores from centre bounce clearances to spike from an average of 10 points a team to 15-18 points.
Don’t be surprised if late in game with a margin less than one goal, some teams will resort to giving away intentional free kicks.
That will give their players time to flood back into defence, rather than give the opposition’s dominant ruckman and his centre bounce midfielders any advantages of space and quality disposal.
One thing’s for sure, the premiership team will possess a dominant ruckman.
TIGERS’ BIG-MAN STRIFE
Jon Ralph
Damien Hardwick has plenty of thinking to do.
Richmond’s star-studded midfield was already facing its challenges before the AFL made it easier for ruckmen to take control of a game.
New rules allowing ruckmen to take possession of the ball from the ruck without losing prior opportunity threaten to make the 190cm ruckman extinct. Richmond’s Shaun Grigg has cornered the market on playing that kind of role at 190cm and 85kg.
In last year’s qualifying final the popular and highly effective Toby Nankervis was well beaten by Brodie Grundy as Collingwood scored about 10 goals from stoppages.
Nankervis is a brilliant around-the-ground and second-effort ruckman.
But he isn’t a jumping jack in the vein of West Coast’s Nic Naitanui or a beanpole like Melbourne superstar Max Gawn.
Champion Data statistics show that Grigg, also a highly effective midfielder when he isn’t playing quasi-ruck, contested an average of 10.2 ruck contests last year.
He won only 1.1 hit-outs a game, won a hitout in just 11 per cent of contests, and won a hitout to advantage in 4.9 per cent of contests.
In other words, he effectively conceded the ruck and then became an extra midfielder.
If he concedes a throw-in this year his opponent will be able to grab the ball and handball it to the nearest midfield teammate.
Richmond won’t want to put recruit Tom Lynch into the ruck too soon after a PCL reconstruction, and we will quickly find out whether the new rules actually force meaningful change.
If Grigg contests 10 hit-outs a game against a star like Gawn or Brisbane Lion Stef Martin and his opponent takes half those hit-outs from the air and handballs to a midfielder, the Tigers are in trouble.
ONE-ON-ONE BATTLES TO SAVOUR
Sam Edmund
Even four months on, Jeff White can’t split Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy.
But for the former Melbourne ruckman, that’s the best part.
Like many, White has sat back and watched the demise and then rebirth of the craft he mastered en route to All-Australian honours in 2004.
“At the end of the day our responsibility is to hit it to advantage and that needs that synergy with your midfielders,” White said.
“It’s a cool art to the game. There’s nothing better than seeing a tap ruckman get it to his midfielder and they’re away and inside 50m before you can blink.
“It was amplified last year when it just came down to two big fellas going at each other.”
Gawn and Grundy won their club best and fairests and both were named All-Australians in a 2018 season in which a wave of ruckmen shone.
“I couldn’t separate them,” White said.
“I think both have qualities and strengths that suit their respective sides.
“Grundy was picking up hardball gets and loose-ball gets and his second and third efforts were great, whereas Gawny was not only getting his taps, but kicking goals and floating back and being that strong presence down the line taking contested marks.”
White predicted the rule change allowing ruckmen to grab the ball out of any contest without fear of being caught holding the ball would spell the end of the Shaun Grigg-style ruckman.
“That rule should have always been applied. You only had to touch them and it was holding the ball and sometimes not even a proper tackle,” he said.
“That’s going to advantage the bigger blokes, for sure. But no third-ups is the rule I really like. It’s just made it more of a one-on-one battle around the ground and an important role, which historically it has been.”
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