New ‘PAV’ system ranks the best individual AFL seasons of the past 30 years
LEIGH Matthews said Dustin Martin’s 2017 season was the best in history, but do the numbers back him up? A new ranking system aims to answer one of footy’s toughest questions.
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AFTER Dustin Martin’s 2017 season saw him become the first man to win a premiership, Brownlow Medal, and Norm Smith Medal in the same year, many pundits scrambled to proclaim it the best in history.
“No player has ever had as good a year as Dustin Martin, I suspect,” said Leigh Matthews.
But according to a new ranking system, Martin’s annus mirabilis ranks as the 15th-best individual season since 1988.
Interestingly, though, it wasn’t even the best of 2017. That honour went to Patrick Dangerfield, whose total of 27.6 shaded Martin’s 26.8.
The Geelong superstar was coming off the highest-rated individual season, after his 2016 total of 32 PAV had taken that mantle from Jim Stynes’s Brownlow-winning year in 1991.
Named in honour of retired great Matthew Pavlich, the “Player Approximate Value” system was developed by football analysts Cody Atkinson and Sean Lawson to reflect a player’s worth to their team.
Values are calculated for a team’s output forward, in the midfield and in defence, and then for how much each player contributed to that output. Their overall PAV is the sum of these three ratings.
A third of the top-15 single-season PAV totals coincide with Brownlow wins. A notable exception is North Melbourne great Wayne Carey, who appears on our list three times but never won the medal.
The list validates the long-held belief that Adelaide’s Andrew McLeod was robbed of the 2001 Brownlow.
He finished two votes behind Jason Akermanis that year, after failing to poll in the final round despite having 37 disposals in a loss to Fremantle.
McLeod also appears 12th on the list of players with the highest career-long PAV totals.
These players were not only highly successful, but also enjoyed remarkable longevity.
WHAT IS PAV?
PAV has been designed to reflect a player’s worth to their team.
Named in honour of retired great Matthew Pavlich, the “Player Approximate Value” system is a method developed by football analysts Cody Atkinson and Sean Lawson.
It uses a team’s performance as the starting point, dividing it into three components: forward, midfield, and defence.
Values are calculated for a team’s output in each of the three areas, and then for how much each player contributed to that output.
A player will therefore receive separate ratings for their attacking, midfield, and defensive prowess, providing an insight into how they add value around the ground.
Their overall PAV is the sum of these three ratings.
We have tested the PAV formulas — which have been made publicly available on Atkinson and Lawson’s website, hpnfooty.com — against the AFL’s Official Player Ratings.
We found a strong correlation between them, for all player types, between 2010 and 2017. The formulas have also been measured against Brownlow Medal votes and All-Australian selections.
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