New AFL clubs and inception of free agency means footy tipping nightmare, writes Mick Malthouse

WHO saw North Melbourne’s amazing upset of Adelaide? MICK MALTHOUSE says footy tipping has become just about impossible and here’s why.

Trent Cotchin and the Tigers (centre) after their round 8 loss to Fremantle. Picture: AAP

FOOTY tipping has gone mad this year.

Upsets, blowouts and thrillers are all part of football, but when we are seeing scenarios like we did in Round 7 — where every team was beaten by an opponent lower on the ladder — or in the lead up to Round 9, where the second bottom team was still capable of making the finals, then there is a story to be told.

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I believe its genesis is from when the Gold Coast Suns and Greater Western Sydney joined the competition.

When these two clubs came on the scene, they took the cream of the crop — as far as young players go — with them. And continued to do so for a number of years.

Apart from probably Geelong, Hawthorn and Sydney, who already had good, young lists, the rest of the clubs were denied the best draft picks to enhance own their stocks.

The Suns and the Giants have both now reached a point where they are major players in the competition, and they’ve had time to find out who can and can’t play from those early crops.

In recent years expansion clubs, like the Gold Coast, have had a mortgage on early draft picks.

Now, due to salary cap restrictions we have seen a cull of sorts and players such as Tom Boyd, Adam Treloar, and Jaeger O’Meara are putting down roots in other pastures.

Along with this has been the introduction of free agency.

Here we have seen unprecedented movement from Brownlow medallists, club best and fairest players, leading goal kickers and some sought-after talent, topping up clubs already boasting good cattle — think Patrick Dangerfield, Lance Franklin and Eddie Betts.

Yet as the strong grew stronger, they also aged. Bodies took hit after hit with back-to-back finals campaigns, and have grown weary.

Meanwhile, clubs at the lower end of the ladder rebuilt with early draft picks and concessions. Throw in a few prize-winning bulls and they are ready to compete for a top eight position.

St Kilda is a prime example, with Jake Carlisle and Nathan Brown slotting perfectly into the backline to boost its defence and provide a more formidable look to the team.

It’s all working well to make the Saints a genuine finals threat.

And so the competition has plateaued. It is perhaps more even than it has ever been.

Unpredictable is the word to sum it up. Each week in the tipping we have to ask ourselves: Which teams will show up? The team of old, or just an old team? A team of youthful exuberance, or a team caught napping?

Luke Beveridge’s Western Bulldogs always give huge effort. Picture: Getty Images

The Western Bulldogs are still the benchmark, despite being eighth and possibly out of the eight by the end of the round with a 5-4 record. Remember they won the premiership from seventh last year.

Adelaide won its first six games and looked unstoppable but it has come undone in the last two rounds with comprehensive losses to North Melbourne and Melbourne.

With a slow and not overly defensive midfield there has been a disjoint between its back and forward lines. This will remain the Crows’ Achilles heel for the season.

Fremantle and Sydney are making a resurgence. Never underestimate the injury factor. It is not an excuse, never an excuse, but it is so hard to replace proven players and it can make a team very vulnerable, especially when there are a few or more on the sidelines.

Sometimes the ladder can be misleading. Had Geelong not beaten North Melbourne in its one-point thriller in round two, its place in the top eight would also be precarious.

George Horlin-Smith helped the Cats escape against North Melbourne. Picture: Getty Images

Close wins matter as much as the thumpings in a season like this.

Some teams just know how to win. When the game is tight these teams have faith in their ability to close it out. They get the job done.

Then there are teams with a mental block. When they have lost too many close ones it starts to become a self-prophecy, an inevitability.

North Melbourne has given away three games already this year. The game to Geelong, a three-point loss to the Bulldogs, and a five-point defeat by Fremantle.

The cycle needs to be broken.

I have no doubt Brad Scott would have a formation in place for all possible scenarios in tight games. But you can’t practise every play every week. In those cases he has to rely on his players keeping a cool head and reliably moving into position.

Unlike Richmond last weekend. After fighting back to take the lead against the Dockers in the dying moments of the match they forgot the fundamentals of defence.

Sure they flooded the backline, but they went too narrow and didn’t protect the lateral ball.

Without support on the outside David Mundy was able to take a virtually uncontested mark and win the game for Fremantle.

There is technique involved in closing out a game and it comes with practice, plenty of it, of the set-up and the play.

It also comes down to this old saying: keep your head when everyone else is losing theirs.

In 2010 when the grand final was level between Collingwood and St Kilda, we had to defend the last throw-in, close to the Saints’ forward 50, or lose the game if they got a kick out and the ball got even close to their goals. It was as simple as that.

All year we had practised our formation in this particular scenario, so with seconds remaining I could only send our runners out with one message: What is my role, where should I be?

Thanks to the calm demeanour and common sense used by Scott Pendlebury, Darren Jolly, Luke Ball and Dale Thomas, who took the initiative and made sure the ball fell in the right position to be defended, it was the last play of the game.

We drew the match and went on to the win the premiership the following week.

But that was in a season where I knew we would make the finals, had belief that we would finish in the top two, and had a hunch we could win the big one.

This year, who knows who will end where? Good luck with your footy tipping.