Mick McGuane on the key tactics involved for the West Coast v Melbourne preliminary final

AS WEST Coast prepares to host Melbourne in Saturday’s preliminary final, premiership star and AFL analyst Mick McGuane looks at the areas where the match will be won and lost.

Neville Jetta and Mark LeCras wrestle after the siren in Round 22. Pic: Getty Images

ONE team likes to control the tempo with a kick-mark game style, the other relies on winning contested footy and using their speed to hit the scoreboard.

As the West Coast Eagles prepare to host Melbourne in Saturday’s preliminary final in Perth, premiership star and AFL analyst Mick McGuane looks at the key areas - and where the match will be won and lost.

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James Harmes might sidle up to Luke Shuey this week. Pic: Getty Images

WHAT TO EXPECT

WEST COAST: CONTROL

The Eagles are at their damaging best when they can CONTROL the game by getting their kick-mark style going. That was evident in the first quarter against Collingwood when they controlled the ball by having 70 kicks and only 18 handballs. That came with an incredibly high 27 uncontested marks, which is huge, given the AFL average is around 20. In the last term of their qualifying final, their clearance work (10 to 8) and contested possessions (+13) helped them advance straight into the preliminary final, along with their kick-to-mark ratio strength (57 kicks, 19 handball, 17 uncontested marks). Incidentally, the Eagles had a ridiculously high kick-to-handball ratio - 3.4 kicks to one handball - in their first and last quarters combined, compared to 1.42 in the second and third terms. Collingwood’s pressure increased and referenced West Coast’s free players better in the middle half of the game. If they return those first and fourth quarter numbers for longer against Melbourne, the Eagles will be very hard to stop at home on fresh legs.

Jake Melksham is dangerous … but could be used in a different role against the Eagles. Pic: Getty Images

MELBOURNE: CHAOS

The Demons will be challenged by Simon Goodwin to get speed on the game right from the outset. They will look to win contested possession, flick the ball around with handball by putting a player into space, so he can kick the ball in long and to their forwards’ advantage. A high play-on from mark percentage (greater than 33%) is critical against the Eagles. You cannot play a slow-build-from-centre-back game against the Eagles. Fast-ball movement shifts West Coast defenders and does not allow them the luxury of getting set. High pressure and strong assault on ball carrier will be also a part of Goodwin’s messaging to his players. It is a MUST that Melbourne keeps the game in motion, forcing a chaotic game, challenging the Eagles’ decision-making and execution. NO TIME/NO SPACE should be their mantra.

WEST COAST

THE KEY

Control the ball by foot. This is the Eagles’ asset. They must play an expansive game - get to the edges and use every bit of the ground to make it as long and as wide as possible. In turn, it will potentially open up corridor options if Melbourne’s team defence lapses in concentration or in application to task. Too many people in footy think this implies a slow build-up kicking style of play. That’s not the case at all. By getting good width and length, it creates good usable options that invariably lead to “play on” situations. With Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling back, this will pose a significant challenge to Melbourne’s defence, providing the ball gets Inside 50 quickly.

Josh Kennedy will be on the end of it if the Eagles move the ball and get time and space. Pic: Getty Images

THE CHALLENGE

Withstand the heat. Melbourne is an outstanding pressure team. They hunt the opposition with an intent to tackle aggressively, making them great to watch. The Eagles must think their way through these pressured situations and understand it is more preferable to make a long mistake rather than a cough up or a short misdirected handball that allows Melbourne to win back the ball in close. Being predictable to each other in this circumstance is imperative. That’s why structure in front of the ball and trusting your forwards with a long-forward mentality is priceless in a high-pressured final. In other words, don’t invent an option that’s not available. Melbourne will put them to the slaughter in this situation.

THE THEME

Winning contested possession. Adam Simpson and his team witnessed first-hand the importance of winning contested possessions when the game was up for grabs in the final term against Collingwood. Players like Elliot Yeo (24 contested possessions), Dom Sheed (15), Luke Shuey (12) and Jack Redden (7) must roll up their collective sleeves and understand there will not be many easy balls won. If they win or at least break even in contested possessions, rather than be minus 23 as they were in Round 22, they could be Grand Final bound. Preliminary finals are hard to win, but if you win the contest, you are halfway there.

Clayton Oliver leads a bunch of ferocious, pressure-packed Demons. Pic: AAP

MELBOURNE

THE KEY

Get its forward-half turnover game back. This deserted them against Hawthorn last Friday night. In fact, the Demons created only 24 forward-half turnovers — their 6th fewest in a game this season. If this happens on Saturday, it will give the Eagles a fantastic opportunity to get their kick-mark game in motion and give them ample opportunity to have high a Inside-50 number, which suits the West Coast forwards. Melbourne’s defenders need teammates up the ground to get to work and hold the ball inside their own forward half of the ground.

THE CHALLENGE

Create a chaos game. The Demons must master two aspects within the game. First, win the ground-ball differential, and secondly don’t allow the Eagles defenders to control the air when they enter their forward half of the ground. Melbourne is ranked 2nd v Eagles’ 18th in ground-ball differential this season. This MUST NOT change in a preliminary final. Due to Melbourne having the best ‘kick long’ percentage in the competition, their forwards will be well aware they can ill afford to be out-marked. The ball must be brought to the ground. This is the ground-ball game they desperately want.

THE THEME

Faith and belief. The best thing about Friday’s win over Hawthorn was that they didn’t play their brand, but still registered the “W.” The Demons are a territory team, but lost the Inside-50 count by four — only the 2nd time they have lost that stat since Round 12. They are the 2nd best pressure team in the competition, yet their pressure rating against the Hawks was only 178 - their 6th lowest of 2018. It was their ball movement, matched with their efficiency, that helped register the win. Melbourne scored 11 goals from 35 forward-half chains. Hawthorn, on the other hand, only scored three goals from 33 forward-half chains. Melbourne is much better defensively behind the footy than they were earlier in the season. To win another way bodes well for their faith and belief.

MAGNET BOARD

IF I WERE WEST COAST:

I would bring in Will Schofield to replace the injured Brad Sheppard. He is not a high possession counter-attack defender but he is experienced and, if given a task, he will rise to the occasion. It’s either him or the younger Jackson Nelson. The argument against Nelson is he hasn’t played an AFL match since Round 14, whereas Schofield last played in Round 23. I like the thought of a taller, mobile defender to play on the dangerous Christian Petracca. Mark Hutchings is very disciplined and has to be given the challenge to nullify the influence of Clayton Oliver.

Will Schofield could replace Brad Sheppard. Pic: AAP

IF I WERE MELBOURNE:

I would have Jake Melksham play a defensive forward role on Jeremy McGovern. The Eagle’s influence in the air must be diminished. Melksham has that great ability to stay relevant in offence which will force McGovern to play accountable footy. James Harmes is a lock to shut down on Luke Shuey. I would also be keeping an eye on Lewis Jetta. At every opportunity his body and mind must be tested. He must not be allowed time and space on the ball as he is too damaging with his kicking skills.

PREDICTION: Melbourne by 6.