Mick Malthouse rates every premiership contender with 10 rounds to go
COLLINGWOOD can win the premiership but there are big question marks over Sydney and Geelong — and maybe Melbourne should have gone on that commando camp after all. Mick Malthouse takes a tough look at the run to September.
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THERE are three sides in the top eight who would consider themselves a genuine chance of winning the premiership this year — West Coast, Richmond and Collingwood.
There are another three teams who need to be consistently at their best to be put in the same bracket — Geelong, Melbourne and Port Adelaide.
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Round 13 is when you start thinking about finals.
About who you still need to play to secure your spot.
About areas in your game you need to fine-tune.
About keeping your players fit and healthy and out on the ground performing.
WEST COAST
Despite Friday night’s loss, I still see West Coast as the complete team. It has speed through the middle and in-form key forwards — though Jack Darling is sidelined with an ankle injury. Mark LeCras has added a new dimension to his game to become another classy forward and Josh Kennedy is a beacon.
The Eagles have a solid backline, a firing Nic Naitanui in the ruck and Willie Rioli is a revelation in his pursuit to tackle and put pressure on the opposition. Tom Cole is another standout youngster among many.
The team looks rejuvenated. It has lost its slow tag and instead looks young, enthusiastic and quick.
With its remaining draw I have no doubt West Coast will finish in the top two and its biggest test will be against Collingwood in Round 17 at the MCG, where it played its worst game for the year when it beat Carlton by 10 points in Round 5.
The Eagles need to be better than good in this match, and if they triumph, their premiership odds will shorten significantly.
RICHMOND
Richmond has dropped just three games this year. Its losses have, interestingly, all been interstate games — against Adelaide, West Coast and Port Adelaide.
I’m not sure travel was the problem though, I think the quality of the opposition was.
I wonder if it’s time for the Tigers to look at their forward line structure and introduce two main targets instead of just one. Jack Riewoldt has had to carry that load for one-and-a-half years now and it can become overbearing. He certainly hasn’t let the side down, but he needs help.
Richmond plays four teams currently in the top eight in the remaining home-and-away rounds. If it can keep its list relatively healthy it should continue to occupy a top-two position, or at least finish top four, thereby earning a double chance.
It will be buoyed by the return of Daniel Rioli, who could have a major impact on its fate.
The Tigers know how to win a premiership, so look out.
SYDNEY
As good as Sydney has been, it has the toughest draw of the top-eight sides, with five of the top sides still to play.
I admire the way they play — and picked them to win with a significant home-ground advantage on Friday night — but I can’t see West Coast having to travel to the SCG for a final.
And I have some serious doubts that the Swans can have any impact on the finals — if they make the eight. They are very reliant on a fit and firing Lance Franklin.
Beyond him they rely heavily on Josh Kennedy, Dan Hannebery and Luke Parker to deliver the goods from the stoppages, but all three have been inconsistent this year.
Callum Sinclair has stood up and added to his game by becoming a goalscorer. Jarrad McVeigh is outstanding, always, for Sydney. And Heath Grundy holds the talls together in the backline. But there are too many inconsistencies throughout the team as a whole.
The clubs that will bother the Swans in September are those with enough pace to out-spread them.
Callum Mills is a massive out. Isaac Heeney has been good, but not as terrific as he should be because of his yips in front of goal (he’s kicked 12.11 this year). The Swans will be hoping Sam Reid can return from injury to back up Franklin, but even that impact won’t be enough for another shot at the cup.
GEELONG
Sunday afternoon’s game will tell us more about Geelong than its previous four games, which delivered three wins and a loss.
The Cats seem to have it all. A solid backline with Harry Taylor and Lachie Henderson to return soon. A midfield that is reputed to be the greatest of all time. And a forward line that can kick a big score.
But something has gone awry in the middle of the ground this year. The Cats can’t settle on a ruckman — Rhys Stanley and Zac Smith have both been disappointing for too long.
Dangerfield has been robbed of midfield time and it’s telling.
No one can question the endeavour or courage of captain Joel Selwood, but I have a suspicion that years of punishment are taking its toll on his body. And Gary Ablett is good when Geelong is good, but he’s not as good when the ball is turned over, which happens often against quality sides.
For the Cats to go places this season, they need to bring in Scott Selwood to take out one of the opposition’s better ball getters (like Trent Cotchin or Dustin Martin today). They also need Daniel Menzel. His return from injury will be interesting, but Geelong will be better with him in the team.
The Cats have a kind draw, with only three of the top teams still to play, so they should finish just inside or just outside the top four. Regardless, the Cats will need a lot going right to win the premiership, because their loss to Essendon in Round 9 exposed a lack of intensity, which sometimes haunts them.
MELBOURNE
What are the Demons going to do?
They’ll have a long answer if we ask them, because no one can pump themselves up the way the Demons can.
Melbourne dropped its first game against Geelong, but it’s the three other losses which have been the most damning. Three big games, one a stand-alone match.
I wonder whether not going on the pre-season training camp is coming back to haunt the Demons? It was going to test them physically and mentally, but right now they are being comprehensively beaten mentally and physically by good opposition.
Raw talent alone will keep the Demons in the eight, but the “sometimes handpass at all cost, anywhere and everywhere approach” will be their undoing. Very few sides that handpass more than kick win games in September, because quality opposition will intercept and take the ball off them.
Simon Goodwin has done a marvellous job of introducing camaraderie and belief among the group, but only Tom McDonald stood up for him against Collingwood. Jesse Hogan, Bernie Vince and Jordan Lewis didn’t.
They were simply bullied last week and there was no resistance. Unless this changes, I can’t see them progressing through the finals.
COLLINGWOOD
I’ve already said a lot about Collingwood.
The Magpies have a dream run home with six games at the MCG, so they’ll be knocking on the door of the top four by then. If not the top two.
The Magpies’ biggest tests will be in Rounds 17 and 19 against West Coast and Richmond. They lost to the Tigers in Round 6 and are yet to play the Eagles.
Collingwood won last week without the likes of Ben Reid, Alex Fasolo, Jamie Elliott and Darcy Moore — each of whom would boost any team.
The Magpies have the game structure to go all the way, with the best midfield/ruck combination in the competition. That’s where it starts and finishes.
NORTH MELBOURNE
North Melbourne is an example of what a coach and a hardworking team can do together.
Ben Brown is a star, but he’s not the only reason the Kangaroos are in the eight, to the surprise of most.
They are tough, unrelenting and have good outside spread.
Brad Scott would be proud of his players. A berth in the finals is theirs to take or lose, and their biggest challenges are ahead of them in Rounds 17, 18 and 19 against Sydney, Collingwood and West Coast respectively.
While they has the game structure to go deep into September, I don’t think the Kangaroos have the class and depth of numbers found among some of their top opponents to go all the way.
PORT ADELAIDE
Port Adelaide is an enigma.
It’s hard to get a handle on a team which promises so much, delivers the unexpected and then loses by a kick to Hawthorn.
In a reversal of last year, in which it couldn’t beat a team in the eight, this season Port has already taken the scalps of Richmond, Adelaide and Sydney.
Paddy Ryder has made a spectacular contribution but they still need a lot more from Charlie Dixon and Jack Watts, who have been too inconsistent.
Chad Wingard’s return to form could be the catalyst to push for a top-four finish.
They have only three of the top eight sides still to play, and if they can beat them, they could finish with a double chance. After that, with Port, anything can happen.
THE REST
Pushing to play finals still are Greater Western Sydney, Adelaide and Hawthorn.
Injuries have smashed the Giants and the Crows this season, with too many good players watching on from the sidelines. When those players return it can take weeks to find form and by then it might be too late.
Both clubs have a horrific run home, too, with games against five and six of the top eight sides respectively. I think it will be too much for them.
Hawthorn, conversely, has only Geelong and Sydney from the top eight still to face. As the old saying goes in football — you have to win the games you should win (which generally means the teams below you.) So with that in mind, they should have enough wriggle room to push for the eight.
The Hawks have lost predictably to very good teams, but the loss to the Brisbane Lions, while not mortal, has left their season teetering.
They have a good side, but not a great side any more. They need more consistency and multiple goalkickers, so Luke Breust, Jarryd Roughead, Paul Puopolo and Jack Gunston need to be contributors every week.
Cyril Rioli’s absence won’t help, but the good news is the impending return of Grant Birchall. And Jonathon Ceglar will provide much needed support for Ben McEvoy.
It’ll be a race. A very tight race in the end. And while there’s still half a season left to play, we can be assured that only the best teams will be left standing at the end of August.
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