Live ladder: What Round 22 results mean for top four, top eight
THE finals puzzle is taking shape, but there is still a lot to play for in Round 23 with almost every spot in the top eight up for grabs. JAY CLARK assesses the likely outcomes.
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COLLINGWOOD and Melbourne fans are celebrating after breaking long finals droughts, but where will they finish?
The Demons stood up when it counted in Perth to outlast the Eagles and claim a first finals appearance in 12 years.
Earlier, the Magpies locked in a top-eight spot with a powerful 51-point win against Port Adelaide at the MCG.
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Sydney is also a confirmed finalist after securing its 14th win against GWS, continuing a remarkable September run for John Longmire’s men who will play finals for the 20th time in the past 23 years.
But there is still plenty to play for in this remarkable season with every spot in the top eight apart from the Tigers’ up for grabs.
Scroll down to see all the possibilities.
THE RUN HOME
1. Richmond 68 138.3
v Western Bulldogs (MCG) Saturday, 2.10pm
Can’t miss top spot no matter what happens this weekend. The Tigers have added a ninth minor premiership to the trophy cabinet, and their first since 1982. They made the Grand Final in all of those seasons and won the flag in five of them.
HIGHEST FINISH — 1st
LOWEST FINISH — 1st
JAY SAYS: The Tigers have been the best team all year and deserve the minor premiership. Not many chinks in the armour, either. They will get the inside run at the MCG where they have won their past 20 games.
INJURIES
Jason Castagna (quad) test
Dylan Grimes (back) test
Dion Prestia (hamstring) test
Trent Cotchin (hamstring) test
Kane Lambert (ankle) 1-2 weeks
David Astbury (ankle) test
Shai Bolton (knee) 1-2 weeks
Dan Butler (ankle) 1-2 weeks
2. West Coast 60 120.8
v Brisbane (Gabba) Sunday, 1.10pm
Suddenly vulnerable in the top two after losing at home to the Demons. Pies and Hawks are breathing down their necks but a win at the Gabba will secure a home final.
HIGHEST FINISH — 2nd
LOWEST FINISH — 4th
JAY SAYS: Are the wheels starting to fall off for the Eagles? It looks like it after last night’s loss to Melbourne. Without Andrew Gaff and Nic Naitanui, West Coast could be a chance to bow out in straight sets.
INJURIES
Andrew Gaff (susp) season
Will Schofield (hamstring) 1 week
Josh Kennedy (shin) 1 week
Nic Naitanui (knee) season
Jack Darling (concussion) test
3. Collingwood 56 120.7
v Fremantle (Perth Stadium) Saturday, 4.35pm
Can’t miss finals and would have to lose to Fremantle to miss the top four. How high they finish will come down to margins and outcomes of other games. Best-case scenario is Lions spring an upset and either Hawthorn loses or Collingwood’s margin is big enough to maintain its percentage buffer over the Hawks. That would mean a home final at the G — wowee.
HIGHEST FINISH — 2nd
LOWEST FINISH — 6th
JAY SAYS: What a fabulous turnaround after four years out of finals. The Pies have speed and power in the forward line but whether the makeshift defence can stand up is the big question.
INJURIES
Darcy Moore (hamstring) 1-2 wk
Jamie Elliott (hamstring) season
Jeremy Howe (thigh) test
Ben Reid (calf) season
Tyson Goldsack (back) test
Adam Treloar (hamstring) 1-3 wk
Matt Scharenberg (knee) season
Lynden Dunn (knee) season
4. Hawthorn 56 120.5
v Sydney (SCG) Saturday, 7.25pm
As Lauren Wood wrote on Saturday: Whatever you have on next Saturday night, cancel it. Hawks v Swans is a mini-final and Hawthorn won’t fear the venue — it has won its past four games there dating back to 2011. A win locks in a top-four finish — they can finish as high as second if they win big and the Pies and Eagles lose.
HIGHEST FINISH — 2nd
LOWEST FINISH — 6th
JAY SAYS: You can’t underestimate Alastair Clarkson, and his revamped defence is one of the league’s best. Yes, Saturday night’s win was patchy and, with James Frawley in doubt for his match-up with Lance Franklin, it is going to be hard to stop the much-improved Swans at home.
INJURIES
James Frawley (back) test
Jarryd Roughead (ankle) test
James Sicily (wrist) 1 week
Daniel Howe (susp) 1 week
Grant Birchall (knee) 1-2 weeks
5. Sydney 56 110.6
v Hawthorn (SCG) Saturday, 7.25pm
See above. If the Swans beat Hawthorn they’ll finish fourth and face Richmond in the first week of finals (unless Collingwood loses to Fremantle). Lose and they’ll be playing an elimination final at the SCG.
HIGHEST FINISH — 3rd
LOWEST FINISH — 6th
JAY SAYS: We all wrote Sydney off last month but, like the great club it is, it has turned it on, chalking up three straight victories. Lance Franklin is again one of the hottest players in the game.
INJURIES
Alex Johnson (knee) season
Nick Smith (hamstring) 5 weeks
James Rose (shoulder) 1 week
Sam Reid (achilles) 1-2 weeks
Gary Rohan (hand) test
Sam Naismith (knee) season
Callum Mills (foot) season
6. GWS Giants 54 120.4
v Melbourne (MCG) Sunday, 3.20pm
Need a miracle (in the form of Fremantle beating Collingwood) to make the top four. Most likely scenario is a home elimination final if they defeat Melbourne. Lose and they’ll be travelling in the first week of September.
HIGHEST FINISH — 4th
LOWEST FINISH — 7th
JAY SAYS: If they had a full side, the Giants would clearly be the best-placed team to challenge Richmond, but the injury toll has had a huge impact. A first-round finals exit could loom for the most talented list in the AFL.
INJURIES
Phil Davis (hip) test
Ryan Griffen (hamstring) 3-4 wk
Heath Shaw (knee) 5 weeks
Josh Kelly (concussion) test
Sam Reid (hamstring) TBC
Brett Deledio (calf) 2-3 weeks
Dawson Simpson (ankle) 6 weeks
Toby Greene (hamstring) 1 week
Aidan Corr (groin) 1 week
Tom Scully (ankle) season
Zac Williams (achilles) test
Jon Patton (knee) season
7. Melbourne 52 129.8
v GWS Giants (MCG), Sunday, 3.20pm
The Dees can still sneak into the top four if they beat GWS, Hawthorn defeats Sydney and Collingwood loses. Lose and they might get a rematch against the Giants in an elimination final — at Spotless Stadium.
HIGHEST FINISH — 4th
LOWEST FINISH — 8th
JAY SAYS: Finally, the 12-year finals drought ends. The midfield was too good last night and without Jesse Hogan the forward line has a dangerous, unpredictable feel. Could be a huge first-round finals battle against Geelong.
INJURIES
Joel Smith (shoulder) test
Jack Viney (toe) 2 weeks
Jesse Hogan (foot) season
Bernie Vince (shoulder) season
Jake Lever (knee) season
Billy Stretch (toe) season
8. Geelong 48 125.7
v Gold Coast (GMHBA)
Back in the eight but can’t get higher than seventh after Sydney’s win. Could only miss from here with an unimaginable loss to Gold Coast.
HIGHEST FINISH — 7th
LOWEST FINISH — 9th
JAY SAYS: The Cats reckon they can close the gap on the Tigers in September, and a win against the Suns ensures they make it. Slammed home 23 straight goals to belt the Dockers, but depth remains the query on the big stage.
INJURIES
Rhys Stanley (calf) 1-2 weeks
Jed Bews (shoulder) test
Lincoln McCarthy (h’string) test
Esava Ratugolea (knee) indefinite
Nakia Cockatoo (knee) season
9. Port Adelaide 48 109.6
v Essendon (AO), Friday, 7.50pm
All they can do is beat Essendon on Friday night then barrack as hard as they can for Gold Coast to pull off the upset of the century against Geelong.
HIGHEST FINISH — 8th
LOWEST FINISH — 12th
JAY SAYS: Injuries have hurt the Power and the recruits probably haven’t performed up to expectations. Should beat Essendon but need the Cats to lose. Disappointing year from Ken Hinkley’s men.
INJURIES
Jack Watts (knee) test
Karl Amon (knee) test
Dan Houston (neck/head) test
Charlie Dixon (broken leg) season
Hamish Hartlett (knee) season
10. North Melbourne 44 108.1
v St Kilda (ES)
Mathematically still in it but need to win by about 200 points then hope Cats and Port to lose. Seems unlikely. The same equation applies to Essendon and the Crows but it gets more improbably as you go with each team requiring bigger margins and everyone above them to fall over.
HIGHEST FINISH — 8th
LOWEST FINISH — 12th
JAY SAYS: Admirable season from North given its inexperienced list, but finals are a bridge too far. Needs both Cats and Port to lose and must win by well over 150 points to pick up around 17%. As with Bombers and Crows, they can still mathematically make it. But Roos are far better odds to recruit Andrew Gaff and Jared Polec in the off-season.
INJURIES
Billy Hartung (hamstring) test
Taylor Garner (h’string) test
Ben Jacobs (concussion/neck) test
Will Walker (knee) scan
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