Live ladder: What Round 22 results mean for top four, top eight

THE finals puzzle is taking shape, but there is still a lot to play for in Round 23 with almost every spot in the top eight up for grabs. JAY CLARK assesses the likely outcomes.

The Dees must not fumble out west. Picture: AAP

COLLINGWOOD and Melbourne fans are celebrating after breaking long finals droughts, but where will they finish?

The Demons stood up when it counted in Perth to outlast the Eagles and claim a first finals appearance in 12 years.

Earlier, the Magpies locked in a top-eight spot with a powerful 51-point win against Port Adelaide at the MCG.

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Sydney is also a confirmed finalist after securing its 14th win against GWS, continuing a remarkable September run for John Longmire’s men who will play finals for the 20th time in the past 23 years.

But there is still plenty to play for in this remarkable season with every spot in the top eight apart from the Tigers’ up for grabs.

Scroll down to see all the possibilities.

Gary Ablett faces his old team Gold Coast in the final round.

THE RUN HOME

1. Richmond 68 138.3

v Western Bulldogs (MCG) Saturday, 2.10pm

Can’t miss top spot no matter what happens this weekend. The Tigers have added a ninth minor premiership to the trophy cabinet, and their first since 1982. They made the Grand Final in all of those seasons and won the flag in five of them.

HIGHEST FINISH — 1st

LOWEST FINISH — 1st

JAY SAYS: The Tigers have been the best team all year and deserve the minor premiership. Not many chinks in the armour, either. They will get the inside run at the MCG where they have won their past 20 games.

INJURIES

Jason Castagna (quad) test

Dylan Grimes (back) test

Dion Prestia (hamstring) test

Trent Cotchin (hamstring) test

Kane Lambert (ankle) 1-2 weeks

David Astbury (ankle) test

Shai Bolton (knee) 1-2 weeks

Dan Butler (ankle) 1-2 weeks

2. West Coast 60 120.8

v Brisbane (Gabba) Sunday, 1.10pm

Suddenly vulnerable in the top two after losing at home to the Demons. Pies and Hawks are breathing down their necks but a win at the Gabba will secure a home final.

HIGHEST FINISH — 2nd

LOWEST FINISH — 4th

JAY SAYS: Are the wheels starting to fall off for the Eagles? It looks like it after last night’s loss to Melbourne. Without Andrew Gaff and Nic Naitanui, West Coast could be a chance to bow out in straight sets.

INJURIES

Andrew Gaff (susp) season

Will Schofield (hamstring) 1 week

Josh Kennedy (shin) 1 week

Nic Naitanui (knee) season

Jack Darling (concussion) test

3. Collingwood 56 120.7

v Fremantle (Perth Stadium) Saturday, 4.35pm

Can’t miss finals and would have to lose to Fremantle to miss the top four. How high they finish will come down to margins and outcomes of other games. Best-case scenario is Lions spring an upset and either Hawthorn loses or Collingwood’s margin is big enough to maintain its percentage buffer over the Hawks. That would mean a home final at the G — wowee.

HIGHEST FINISH — 2nd

LOWEST FINISH — 6th

JAY SAYS: What a fabulous turnaround after four years out of finals. The Pies have speed and power in the forward line but whether the makeshift defence can stand up is the big question.

INJURIES

Darcy Moore (hamstring) 1-2 wk

Jamie Elliott (hamstring) season

Jeremy Howe (thigh) test

Ben Reid (calf) season

Tyson Goldsack (back) test

Adam Treloar (hamstring) 1-3 wk

Matt Scharenberg (knee) season

Lynden Dunn (knee) season

Travis Varcoe and Brody Mihocek know they’ll be playing in September.

4. Hawthorn 56 120.5

v Sydney (SCG) Saturday, 7.25pm

As Lauren Wood wrote on Saturday: Whatever you have on next Saturday night, cancel it. Hawks v Swans is a mini-final and Hawthorn won’t fear the venue — it has won its past four games there dating back to 2011. A win locks in a top-four finish — they can finish as high as second if they win big and the Pies and Eagles lose.

HIGHEST FINISH — 2nd

LOWEST FINISH — 6th

JAY SAYS: You can’t underestimate Alastair Clarkson, and his revamped defence is one of the league’s best. Yes, Saturday night’s win was patchy and, with James Frawley in doubt for his match-up with Lance Franklin, it is going to be hard to stop the much-improved Swans at home.

INJURIES

James Frawley (back) test

Jarryd Roughead (ankle) test

James Sicily (wrist) 1 week

Daniel Howe (susp) 1 week

Grant Birchall (knee) 1-2 weeks

5. Sydney 56 110.6

v Hawthorn (SCG) Saturday, 7.25pm

See above. If the Swans beat Hawthorn they’ll finish fourth and face Richmond in the first week of finals (unless Collingwood loses to Fremantle). Lose and they’ll be playing an elimination final at the SCG.

HIGHEST FINISH — 3rd

LOWEST FINISH — 6th

JAY SAYS: We all wrote Sydney off last month but, like the great club it is, it has turned it on, chalking up three straight victories. Lance Franklin is again one of the hottest players in the game.

INJURIES

Alex Johnson (knee) season

Nick Smith (hamstring) 5 weeks

James Rose (shoulder) 1 week

Sam Reid (achilles) 1-2 weeks

Gary Rohan (hand) test

Sam Naismith (knee) season

Callum Mills (foot) season

The Swans’ win over GWS was vital. Pic: AAP

6. GWS Giants 54 120.4

v Melbourne (MCG) Sunday, 3.20pm

Need a miracle (in the form of Fremantle beating Collingwood) to make the top four. Most likely scenario is a home elimination final if they defeat Melbourne. Lose and they’ll be travelling in the first week of September.

HIGHEST FINISH — 4th

LOWEST FINISH — 7th

JAY SAYS: If they had a full side, the Giants would clearly be the best-placed team to challenge Richmond, but the injury toll has had a huge impact. A first-round finals exit could loom for the most talented list in the AFL.

INJURIES

Phil Davis (hip) test

Ryan Griffen (hamstring) 3-4 wk

Heath Shaw (knee) 5 weeks

Josh Kelly (concussion) test

Sam Reid (hamstring) TBC

Brett Deledio (calf) 2-3 weeks

Dawson Simpson (ankle) 6 weeks

Toby Greene (hamstring) 1 week

Aidan Corr (groin) 1 week

Tom Scully (ankle) season

Zac Williams (achilles) test

Jon Patton (knee) season

7. Melbourne 52 129.8

v GWS Giants (MCG), Sunday, 3.20pm

The Dees can still sneak into the top four if they beat GWS, Hawthorn defeats Sydney and Collingwood loses. Lose and they might get a rematch against the Giants in an elimination final — at Spotless Stadium.

HIGHEST FINISH — 4th

LOWEST FINISH — 8th

JAY SAYS: Finally, the 12-year finals drought ends. The midfield was too good last night and without Jesse Hogan the forward line has a dangerous, unpredictable feel. Could be a huge first-round finals battle against Geelong.

INJURIES

Joel Smith (shoulder) test

Jack Viney (toe) 2 weeks

Jesse Hogan (foot) season

Bernie Vince (shoulder) season

Jake Lever (knee) season

Billy Stretch (toe) season

8. Geelong 48 125.7

v Gold Coast (GMHBA)

Back in the eight but can’t get higher than seventh after Sydney’s win. Could only miss from here with an unimaginable loss to Gold Coast.

HIGHEST FINISH — 7th

LOWEST FINISH — 9th

JAY SAYS: The Cats reckon they can close the gap on the Tigers in September, and a win against the Suns ensures they make it. Slammed home 23 straight goals to belt the Dockers, but depth remains the query on the big stage.

INJURIES

Rhys Stanley (calf) 1-2 weeks

Jed Bews (shoulder) test

Lincoln McCarthy (h’string) test

Esava Ratugolea (knee) indefinite

Nakia Cockatoo (knee) season

Has Port Adelaide blown its finals chances?

9. Port Adelaide 48 109.6

v Essendon (AO), Friday, 7.50pm

All they can do is beat Essendon on Friday night then barrack as hard as they can for Gold Coast to pull off the upset of the century against Geelong.

HIGHEST FINISH — 8th

LOWEST FINISH — 12th

JAY SAYS: Injuries have hurt the Power and the recruits probably haven’t performed up to expectations. Should beat Essendon but need the Cats to lose. Disappointing year from Ken Hinkley’s men.

INJURIES

Jack Watts (knee) test

Karl Amon (knee) test

Dan Houston (neck/head) test

Charlie Dixon (broken leg) season

Hamish Hartlett (knee) season

10. North Melbourne 44 108.1

v St Kilda (ES)

Mathematically still in it but need to win by about 200 points then hope Cats and Port to lose. Seems unlikely. The same equation applies to Essendon and the Crows but it gets more improbably as you go with each team requiring bigger margins and everyone above them to fall over.

HIGHEST FINISH — 8th

LOWEST FINISH — 12th

JAY SAYS: Admirable season from North given its inexperienced list, but finals are a bridge too far. Needs both Cats and Port to lose and must win by well over 150 points to pick up around 17%. As with Bombers and Crows, they can still mathematically make it. But Roos are far better odds to recruit Andrew Gaff and Jared Polec in the off-season.

INJURIES

Billy Hartung (hamstring) test

Taylor Garner (h’string) test

Ben Jacobs (concussion/neck) test

Will Walker (knee) scan

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