Kicking has never been more valuable and there’s a surprise No.1
THE sceptics argue that footy has never been uglier and the Herald Sun has evidence to support them. A good kick has never been more valuable and you might be surprised who is No.1. Plus, every club’s best and worst.
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THE sceptics argue that footy has never been uglier — and the Herald Sun has evidence to support them.
Kicking efficiency across the competition is languishing at 64.9 per cent — the lowest ever recorded by analyst Champion Data.
Where once attacking play was king, defence now sits on footy’s throne. Ball movement is being choked by congestion and the fundamental art of kicking has been poisoned by pressure.
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Statistically, teams are applying more defensive heat on their opposition than ever before.
A good kick has never been more valuable.
The key measurement of a player’s ability by foot is his kick rating. Eight rounds into the season, Charlie Cameron is considered the league’s best ball user by foot, with the former Crows goalsneak making a seamless transition to life at the Brisbane Lions.
But Gold Coast supporters should feel nervous when David Swallow has the ball.
The midfielder has hit 37.7 per cent of targets this season, well below his expected hit rate of 48.7 per cent given the difficulty of the kicks he’s attempted.
Using 75 kicks as a minimum requirement, the kick rating factors in how much pressure a player is under and what sort of kick he’s trying to pull off.
It gives Swallow a kick rating of -11 per cent.
Players who chip the ball sideways and backwards might have a high success rate, but their kick rating won’t soar because they are hitting expected targets.
There’s a sprinkling of rebounding half-backs among the competition’s best kicks.
Brad Sheppard and Shannon Hurn rank No.2 and No.3 respectively in a West Coast side that has bolted to a 7-1 season start on the back of bold ball movement now rarely seen.
Jimmy Webster has a kick rating of +9.3 per cent, while Jordan Lewis (+8.9 per cent), Aaron Mullett (+7.7 per cent) and Dayne Zorko (+7.6 per cent) have all proven dangerous in possession.
Gold Coast has lost five of its last six games and, statistically, has the three worst kicks in the AFL. Hot on the heels of Swallow, recruit Lachie Weller (-10.7 per cent) and Brayden Fiorini (-10.3 per cent) are also spraying the ball.
Bryce Gibbs’ 120 kicks at new club Adelaide have come with an expected hit rating of 45.8 per cent, but the former Blue has only made 37.5 per cent.
Sam Murray (-8.3 per cent) has added energy to Collingwood’s back half, but needs to tighten up his disposal.
The fact Tom Mitchell’s ball-gathering brilliance at Hawthorn comes in heavy traffic hurts his kick rating. Mitchell is expected to convert only 44.9 per cent of kicks given the difficult positions he finds himself in, but only 37.1 per cent of those kicks have found their desired target.
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