Herald Sun tipping leader Eliza Sewell’s advice on how to win your work competition
The next four weeks will decide whether you have tipping bragging rights at work or home for the next 12 months. The Herald Sun’s current leader, Eliza Sewell, shares her advice.
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With four rounds left in the AFL home-and-away season, the jostling for top-four spots and finals berths is on in earnest.
The Herald Sun’s tipping competition is headed for a grandstand finish, with Eliza Sewell leading Jon Anderson, Gerard Whateley, Devon Smith and Bill Shorten after Round 19.
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If you’re in the running for your office tipping or family competition, this is the stretch of the campaign that will determine your success.
Here’s five tips from our current leader Eliza Sewell to get you over the line:
1. DON’T TIP WITH YOUR HEART
You have to tip against your team. Sometimes often. It hurts and can make those tight Friday night games mentally exhausting when you are essentially cheering for both sides.
2. OVERTHINK AT YOUR PERIL
Quick tips are good tips. Don’t over think it. If an upset jumps out at you, go for it.
3. THE EYE TEST IS AS GOOD AS THE FORM
If you watch the footy, you know if a team is going OK. Don’t just look at wins and losses. This season there’s been a few false favourites at the start of each round, who you know haven’t been travelling as well as the wins tally suggests. Don’t ignore that.
4. DON’T TRY TOO HARD TO JUSTIFY A TIP
Of course, don’t outsmart yourself by trying to find reasons why good teams will lose. For example — they’re due, they’re bored or they’re playing away (think Brisbane).
5. ONE BAD WEEK DOESN’T MAKE A SEASON
Tipping is an emotional roller coaster. After a good week and I’m on a high, then I go bad and I’m flat. But that’s the game. It’s bloody hard!
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FIVE OTHER FACTORS TO CONSIDER
UPSETS HAPPEN
You can’t win a tipping competition by just picking nine favourites every week. Determine the games where you think there can be an upset and back your gut feel. If you are in contention but trail your leader by 2-3 tips, you’ll need picks to differentiate yourself. The Kiss of Death led the Herald Sun’s tipping competition in the early rounds, which tells you how unpredictable this year has been.
KNOW THE COMPETITION
If the frontrunner in your tipping competition always picks their favourite team, this could be your point of difference. Say they support Collingwood or Essendon, you could tip against the Magpies or Bombers during the run home and make up ground if they stumble.
DON’T CHANGE YOUR TIPS
One of the biggest mistakes tipsters make is wavering on their initial tips. Of course it can be tempting when you hear of an injury concern or late change, but you’ll be kicking yourself if you change, only for your initial tip to prevail. Rule of thumb suggests that will be the case too.
CHECK THE TEAMS
There’s not much worse than settling on your tips early in the week, only to learn a key player has failed a fitness test or will miss for another reason. It’s important you stay informed if team news could sway your opinion.
DO YOUR RESEARCH
Richmond is on a roll and plays its remaining four games at the MCG, where it last season broke the record for the number of consecutive wins. Being aware of statistics such as this not only makes you an informed tipster, but can help set you apart. You also want to be aware of which teams are playing for what prize in the last four rounds. If a team has a top-eight spot sewn up, they might be ripe for the picking.
THE CONTENDERS
Eliza Sewell 108
Gerard Whateley 107
Jon Anderson 107
Devon Smith 106
Bill Shorten 106
Mick Malthouse 105
Glenn McFarlane 105
Michael Warner 104
Jay Clark 104
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