Herald Sun tipping champion Chris Cavanagh reveals his Round 23 tipping secrets
HERALD Sun reporter Chris Cavanagh has all but sewn up this year’s tipping competition and he has revealed his secrets so you too can taste glory. SEE HIS TIPS AND WHY
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NEED help to win your office tipping competition?
Look no further. Reporter Chris Cavanagh has all but secured victory in the Herald Sun tipping competition and he’s lifted the lid on his reasons for selecting his winners this weekend.
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It has been an unpredictable season and there might be another twist or two set for Round 23, so step into the mind of this year’s tipping champ.
CHRIS CAVANAGH’S ROUND 23 TIPS AND WHY
HAWTHORN V WESTERN BULLDOGS
TAB odds: Hawthorn $2, Western Bulldogs $1.80
Tip: Hawthorn by 14
Why: Yes, the Hawks lost to Carlton last weekend but the Blues have taken it up to some good sides this year and I think Alastair Clarkson’s side will bounce back. I’m really not sure where the Bulldogs’ goals are coming from tonight — their forward 50 entries over the past two weeks have been horrendous and their goal kicking not much better. From 116 inside 50s in their past two matches, the Dogs have kicked 18 goals — efficiency of just 15.5 per cent. With Travis Cloke, Jake Stringer and Tory Dickson going out of last week’s side, the Western Bulldogs’ named forward six tonight have kicked 58 goals between them this season and Liam Picken has contributed 21 of those. I see far more scoring power at the other end with the Hawks.
COLLINGWOOD V MELBOURNE
TAB odds: Collingwood $2.40, Melbourne $1.58
Tip: Melbourne by 18
Why: The Demons have a bit to play for, their spot in the top eight not 100 per cent locked in heading into the final round. On the other hand, it is a dead-rubber for Collingwood. These two teams met less than 11 weeks ago, Melbourne overcoming a 23-point halftime deficit to score a four-point win on that occasion. There was no Jesse Hogan that day, who is in form after kicking six goals against Brisbane last week. Expect Collingwood to put up a challenge but the Demons should get the points.
BRISBANE LIONS V NORTH MELBOURNE
TAB odds: Brisbane $1.45, North Melbourne $2.75
Tip: Brisbane by 20
Why: Has been referred to as the ‘Cam Rayner Cup’, with the loser securing the wooden spoon and therefore the No.1 draft pick. I’m not a big believer in tanking but I get the feeling Brisbane wants to win this game more. While their start to the season was pretty poor, losing nine of their first 10 games, the Lions have been quite impressive over the past three weeks with one win over Gold Coast (58 points) and narrow losses to Melbourne (13 points) and Western Bulldogs (14 points). Brisbane has also won two of their last three games at the Gabba, its record in Queensland (4-7) far better than interstate (1-9).
SYDNEY SWANS V CARLTON
TAB odds: Sydney $1.04, Carlton $11
Tip: Sydney by 50
Why: Like what Carlton have been doing and their first win over Hawthorn in 12 years last weekend proved there are inroads being made. The Blues also scored an upset 19-point win when they last met Sydney at the MCG in Round 6. However, the Swans will get the job done easily here. Sydney has now won 12 of their last 14 games, its only losses during that period both coming against Hawthorn. A top-four spot is still a possibility with a win, so there is no way John Longmire’s side will be taking this game lightly.
GEELONG V GWS
TAB odds: Geelong $1.85, Greater Western Sydney $1.95
Tip: Geelong by 6
Why: I tipped against Geelong at Simonds Stadium two weeks ago when the Cats met Richmond. Lesson learnt. The home ground advantage Geelong has is huge — Chris Scott’s side has won 43 of their past 50 games there. It’s worth noting the Cats won the free kick count 28-17 in that game against the Tigers, too. Geelong and GWS met in Round 15 in Sydney and recorded a draw. I think this contest will be similarly close but the home ground advantage will give Geelong the edge. The return of key forward Tom Hawkins also helps.
PORT ADELAIDE V GOLD COAST SUNS
TAB odds: Port Adelaide $1.05, Gold Coast $10
Tip: Port Adelaide by 40
Why: Pretty straightforward game here. Gold Coast has pretty much put the cue in the rack while the Power are still in the mix for a top four spot. Suns star Gary Ablett was going to play but failed a fitness test and was withdrawn from the Gold Coast team two hours after teams were named last night, further hurting the side’s chances of an upset win. Gold Coast has lost its past seven games by an average of 40 points while Port has been a team that has proven to beat up on struggling sides this season and thumped the Suns by 72 points when these two teams met in China in Round 8.
ESSENDON V FREMANTLE
TAB odds: Essendon $1.10, Fremantle $7
Tip: Essendon by 36
Why: I can’t see too many people tipping the Dockers here and can’t sense any signs at all that an upset might be on the cards. Essendon has had an up-and-down season but has too much to play for to let this game slip, with a top-eight finish able to be locked in with a win. Fremantle has the worst form-line in the competition, having been uncompetitive the past two weeks and suffering 104-point losses to both Sydney and Richmond. The Dockers have kicked seven or less goals in four of their past six matches and hold a 3-6 record interstate this season. Essendon will get the chocolates.
RICHMOND V ST KILDA
TAB odds: Richmond $1.45, St Kilda $2.75
Tip: Richmond by 12
Why: I think this is more of a 50-50 game than the odds suggest but Richmond should take the four points. The worry is St Kilda embarrassed the Tigers last time these two teams met in Round 16, scoring a 67-point win. However, that defeat has not been forgotten by Richmond, which says it learnt plenty from that game and is out for revenge this weekend. The Tigers have won four of their past five games and are coming off a 104-point win over Fremantle in Perth so should head in full of confidence and walk away with a win that will secure a top four spot.
WEST COAST V ADELAIDE
TAB odds: West Coast $2.60, Adelaide $1.50
Tip: Adelaide by 24
Why: Adelaide is locked in for a top two finish but the fact they are not resting any key players for this game suggests they are taking it pretty seriously. West Coast has been much better at home (8-3) than interstate (3-7) this season but have been far from convincing all season. Both teams have strong forward lines so this game could be an entertaining shootout. But after last week’s rare three-point loss to Sydney, I expect the Crows to bounce back.
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