Herald Sun expert footy tipping winner Chris Cavanagh lists the deadly sins
Tired of being the office joke in your AFL tipping competition? Two-time Herald Sun tipping champion CHRIS CAVANAGH gives you some crucial advice that can help you rule the school.
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Tired of being the office joke in your AFL tipping competition?
Two-time Herald Sun tipping champion CHRIS CAVANAGH gives you some crucial advice that can help you rule the school.
Here’s his list of things you simply can’t afford to do if you want tipping success.
THE FIVE SINS OF AFL FOOTY TIPPING
1. Always tipping your own team
Had you been a Carlton supporter last season and put blind faith in your team every week you would have potentially missed out on 20 correct tips.
That could be the difference between winning your office tipping competition and collecting the wooden spoon, just as the Blues did in 2018.
Tip with your head, not your heart.
2. Always selecting the favourite
No one ever wins a tipping competition by just selecting the favourites every week.
Why? Because you can bet there are a few other lazy co-workers doing the same thing and upsets do happen.
During the home-and-away season last year, there were 58 upsets based on TAB odds, equating to 28 per cent of all matches. Take a couple of calculated risks on outsiders each round.
3. Don’t forget home-ground advantage
When in doubt, it’s a pretty safe rule of thumb to select the home team.
But some home ground advantages count for a lot more than others.
Last year, West Coast went 9-3 from games against interstate opponents at Perth Stadium.
Winning in Adelaide can also be tough, with the Crows having gone 16-6 against interstate
opponents at Adelaide Oval over the past two seasons.
4. Not waiting for teams to drop
If you can, wait until Thursday night or Friday to enter your tips — except for any Thursday night games, of course.
Which players are lining up on any given week can have a big impact, especially on those toss-of-the-coin games. A couple of key players out of one side and a couple of key ins on another side may change your thinking.
5. Forgetting to put in your tips
Most tipping competitions will give automatically give you the ‘away’ teams if you forget to put in your tips one week. You do not want them.
Last year, they won just 45 per cent of the time.
In a full nine-game round, that equates to only 4 out of 9 correct tips, on average.
Flipping a coin can do better than that.
SOME THINGS TO REMEMBER
AFL UPSETS SINCE 2007
2007 31%
2008 27%
2009 31%
2010 35%
2011 21%
2012 23%
2013 25%
2014 29%
2015 27%
2016 28%
2017 33%
2018 28%
Source: TAB
GAMES LOST AS FAVOURITE IN 2018
8: Port Adelaide
6: Geelong
5: Adelaide, Sydney, Melbourne
4: Essendon, Hawthorn
3: North Melbourne, GWS
GAMES WON AS UNDERDOG IN 2018
6: Essendon
5: Sydney, Hawthorn, North Melbourne
4: West Coast, Western Bulldogs
3: Geelong, GWS, Adelaide, Fremantle, Brisbane, Gold Coast
HERALD SUN TIPPING IN RECENT YEARS
2018
Chris Cavanagh 144
Sarah Jones 142
Jon Ralph 141
Kiss of Death 57
2017
Chris Cavanagh 135
Trent Cotchin 133
Gerard Whateley 132
Kiss of Death 74
2016
Jon Ralph 148
Scott Gullan 145
Tim Watson 145
Kiss of Death 51
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