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Geelong-Richmond qualifying final could be blockbuster of the year

RICHMOND is unrecognisable from last year. Geelong is unrecognisable from the first half of this year. Welcome to the AFL’s version Extreme Makeover.

Cam Guthrie, Dustin Martin, Patrick Dangerfield and Trent Cotchin battle for the ball.
Cam Guthrie, Dustin Martin, Patrick Dangerfield and Trent Cotchin battle for the ball.

RICHMOND is unrecognisable from last year.

Geelong is unrecognisable from the first half of this year.

Welcome to the blockbuster of the season, in which the combatants go in as the AFL’s version of TV show Extreme Makeover.

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The Tigers’ miserable 2016 campaign saw the game played at the wrong end of the ground. The Cats’ lack of intensity came to a head in Round 8 this season after a third-consecutive loss.

But both sides have roared back into premiership calculations on the back of one critical ingredient - pressure.

And the deeper you dig, the more appetising Friday night’s MCG qualifying final becomes.

Dustin Martin escapes from Patrick Dangerfield earlier this year.
Dustin Martin escapes from Patrick Dangerfield earlier this year.

Let’s start with the Cats. From Rounds 1-8 they were like a supermarket peach in winter — looked great on the surface, but a let down underneath.

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Chris Scott’s freewheeling unit was churning out 110 points a game on average (ranked 3rd) — good — but leaking 95 points at the other end (13th) — bad. They applied the least pressure in the competition — very bad.

The Round 8 disaster against Essendon was the turning point. In that game the Cats conceded eight of the first 10 goals and laid only 13 tackles in the first half.

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By the final siren Geelong was credited with just 40.

“Fifteen tackles in a half (13) is just a disgraceful performance,” Scott said after losing the MCG clash on May 13 by 17 points.

“There’s some real clear things we need to improve to even be competitive in this game. There are a lot of individuals who didn’t contribute.”

Tom Hawkins runs down Bob Murphy. Picture: Michael Klein
Tom Hawkins runs down Bob Murphy. Picture: Michael Klein

Six days later against the Western Bulldogs, Geelong had a club record 134 tackles because of what Scott said was “structural shifts” as much as a lift in effort.

Whatever the trigger, the Cats haven’t looked back.

After eight rounds the Cats were the poorest pressure side in the competition. Since Round 9 they are the best.

How the Tigers have turned 180 degrees

2016 (Ave)2017 (ave)
Pressure18th (173)4th (183)
Time in forward half differential15th (-7min 53sec)3rd (+6min 15sec)
Turnovers in forward half16th (20.2)2nd (28.9)
Points from forward half turnovers13th (26.4)5th (33.9)
Points from forward half stoppages16th (11.6)8th (16.4)

Scott Selwood’s influence has been well documented, but his 71 pressure points per game is the highest average in the AFL.

A club famed for its attractive, showtime style has taken it into the gutter in pursuit of a fourth premiership in 11 years.

This is a Geelong unit playing like it has a Swan on the front of the jumper.

Daniel Rioli fires off a handball. Picture: Michael Klein
Daniel Rioli fires off a handball. Picture: Michael Klein
Dan Butler celebrates a goal.
Dan Butler celebrates a goal.

In simple terms, the Cats have made themselves hard to play against. From Round 9, they are allowing their opposition AFL-low numbers in disposals, effective kicks, kicking efficiency, uncontested possessions and marks.

At Richmond, Dustin Martin has the fat contract, but the mosquito fleet — Daniel Rioli, Jason Castagna, Dan Butler and Shai Bolton — have been just as important in an extraordinary revival.

Can their speed break the Cats’ constricting hold?

Where the Tigers could barely get out of their defensive half in 2016, 12 months later this quartet has allowed them to set up camp in their attacking half.

What the Cats have allowed since Round 9

Disposals
348 (lowest)
Effective kicks
121 (lowest)
Kicking efficiency
62% (lowest)
Uncontested possessions
204 (lowest)
Marks
78 (lowest)
Points against
76 (4th)

Last year Damien Hardwick’s men won the inside 50m count in only three matches — the fewest of any side. This year they rank third for time in-forward-half differential as that buzzing bunch of smalls — with Jack Riewoldt — go feral when the Tigers lose possession.

That forward-half pressure, combined with a style of ball movement that’s gone from sideways and back to long and direct, has seen them average 12.6 more points each game while ranking third for points against (77).

The Tigers’ back six has gone from exposed rabbits in the headlights to a well-protected wall as David Astbury, Alex Rance and Brandon Ellis intercept en masse.

The record books show Richmond has lost its last 13 games to Geelong.

This is not the same Tigers side, but it’s not the same Cats outfit either.

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Original URL: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/more-news/geelongrichmond-qualifying-final-could-be-blockbuster-of-the-year/news-story/5b82153621de2c503e8a4a508ec3a21e