Finals 2018 week one: Jon Ralph and Sam Landsberger answer the burning questions
WILL Melbourne v Geelong come down to another kick after the siren? Can Clarko outsmart his protege Hardwick? Will Brodie Grundy be the difference? How many injured stars can GWS play against the Swans? Tips and takes on every finals game.
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WILL Melbourne v Geelong come down to another kick after the siren?
Can Alastair Clarkson come up with a master plan in the next two weeks to outsmart his protege Damien Hardwick?
THE TACKLE: WHO HAS FLAG MOMENTUM?
FINALS FIXTURE: TIGERS, HAWKS KICK OFF SEPTEMBER
Can Brodie Grundy lead Collingwood to another epic interstate win?
And how many injured stars can GWS play against the Swans?
Herald Sun experts Jon Ralph and Sam Landsberger answer the burning questions for the first week of finals.
FIRST QUALIFYING FINAL
RICHMOND v HAWTHORN
THE KEY MATCH-UP: JAMES FRAWLEY v JACK RIEWOLDT
The Coleman Medallist is in the form of his life at 29 and, in an anticipated low-scoring strangle under the MCG lights, you suspect the No.1 target will be the biggest threat. Riewoldt’s 4.0 in Round 3 against the Hawks was his equal third-biggest bag for the season. Lock Frawley in for a return after back stiffness.
HOW RICHMOND CAN WIN
Pressure. Richmond saved its searing best for September last year and enters this year on the back of a dream injury run with its game-breakers firing. Tigers have won their past two against Hawthorn and their past 21 at the ‘G. Plus, it’s Dusty’s 200th game.
HOW HAWTHORN CAN WIN
Alastair Clarkson. The four-time premiership coach has 13 days to plot the downfall of his protégé, Damien Hardwick, and that would worry Richmond fans. Geelong’s corridor game and the Dogs’ keepings-off (131 marks) game almost brought the Tigers unstuck. Hawthorn’s potent blend of both styles might just be the cure to Richmond’s MCG dominance.
HAWTHORN INJURY ROOM
Grant Birchall (knee) test
Jon Ceglar (calf) test
James Frawley (back) likely
James Sicily (wrist) likely
Daniel Howe (suspension) available
RICHMOND INJURY ROOM
Kane Lambert (ankle) test
Dan Butler (ankle) test
Jacob Townsend (ankle) TBC
WHO WINS AND WHY
Hot head James Sicily — who is built for finals — and tagger Daniel Howe are ideal inclusions, while Hawthorn’s bottom bunch (Harry Morrison, James Worpel, Kaiden Brand, Conor Nash and Ricky Henderson) enter primed after grabbing big moments in recent finals-type games.
Hawthorn by 2.
TAB ODDS
Richmond $1.40 v Hawthorn $3 (Line -15.5)
FIRST ELIMINATION FINAL
MELBOURNE v GEELONG
THE KEY MATCH-UP: JAMES HARMES v PATRICK DANGERFIELD
Melbourne’s new No.4 has evolved into a tough, attacking weapon. Harmes is among the AFL’s most improved and was shifted on to Dangerfield at half-time in Round 18. The Brownlow Medallist finished with 28 disposals after lodging 21 in the first half. Expect ‘Goody’ to back his boy in again.
HOW MELBOURNE CAN WIN
Melbourne was 0-7 against teams in the top half of the ladder after Round 21. It is 2-0 against fellow finalists since and belief is snowballing. Co-captain Jack Viney will return and saddle up against Joel Selwood while Mitch Hannan is a handy replacement for Dean Kent. The Demons’ percentage of 131.4 is their best since 1964 … their last premiership.
HOW GEELONG CAN WIN
Don’t underestimate the past fortnight. The Cats have gone back to basics, kicked 46 goals and won by a combined 235 points as the synergy of Dangerfield, Selwood, Duncan, Hawkins and Kelly has soared. And then there’s the Holy Trinity’s biggest name, Gary Ablett, who has waited eight years for a return to September.
MELBOURNE INJURY ROOM
Dean Kent (shoulder) TBC
Dom Tyson (wrist) TBC
Joel Smith (collarbone) available
Jayden Hunt (ankle) likely
Jack Viney (toe) likely
Bernie Vince (AC joint) 3-5 weeks
Jesse Hogan (foot) season
Jake Lever (knee) season
GEELONG INJURY ROOM
Wylie Buzza (foot) TBC
Rhys Stanley (calf) test
Esava Ratugolea (ankle) available
Cory Gregson (foot) season
Nakia Cockatoo (knee) season
WHO WINS AND WHY
Since 2011 Geelong is 1-9 after a bye with its sole victory courtesy of Isaac Smith’s sprayed set shot after the siren. The Demons have lost to Geelong after the siren twice this year but Max Gawn, likely opposed to Ryan Abbott, and his priceless palms will ensure this one is iced earlier.
Melbourne by 23.
TAB ODDS
Melbourne $1.75 v Geelong $2.10 (Line -3.5)
SECOND ELIMINATION FINAL
SYDNEY v GWS GIANTS
KEY MATCH-UP: LANCE FRANKLIN v PHIL DAVIS
Last week Davis was holding Franklin in check before his back injury saw him hobbling forward, allowing Franklin to explode with 5.4 and five inside-50s.
HOW SYDNEY CAN WIN
The Swans played the long game this weekend, resting Franklin and Luke Parker in a move that ruined their top-four hopes but ensured they would be cherry ripe for week one of the finals. Against GWS in Round 22 the Giants beat up the Sydney midfield until injuries ravaged them and cost them the match, so Sydney’s senior midfield core need to lift on their showing from that fixture.
HOW GWS CAN WIN
His name is Toby Greene and he is a superstar when fully fit. Greene will be available for the first final and ready to strut his stuff on the big stage he loves so much. But with all six of the Giants’ injured players available, how many can they slot back in given Deledio’s injury issues and potential to break down?
SYDNEY INJURY LIST
Dan Hannebery (corked knee) available
Lance Franklin (groin) available
Luke Parker (groin) available
GWS INJURY LIST
Brett Deledio (calf) available
Toby Greene (hamstring) available
Ryan Griffen (hamstring) available
Aidan Corr (groin) available
Matt De Boer (hamstring) available
Sam Taylor (hamstring) available
WHO WILL WIN AND WHY
These two teams are so evenly matched that the venue has to come into play. Sydney has won five of the six SCG clashes between the two sides, the most recent in Round 3 this year. With wins against Melbourne, GWS and Collingwood in the past month, it’s still hard to tip against the Swans on their home deck despite an ordinary record there this year.
Swans by 17
TAB ODDS
Sydney $1.70 GWS $2.15 (Line -5.5)
SECOND QUALIFYING FINAL
WEST COAST v COLLINGWOOD
KEY MATCH-UP: BRODIE GRUNDY v SCOTT LYCETT
Lycett’s form will win him a fat contract but he has still kicked only 10 goals and averaged 13 possessions per game. Grundy has added contested marking to a superb running game that means he is an extra midfielder for the Pies.
HOW WEST COAST CAN WIN
Home ground advantage is a good start. The Pies got their first look at Perth Stadium against Fremantle but West Coast has won nine of its 12 games there this year. With Nic Naitanui and Andrew Gaff gone and Josh Kennedy touch-and-go, it’s all about team effort and midfield depth instead of stars getting them over the line.
HOW COLLINGWOOD CAN WIN
Multiple targets. The Pies have five players averaging more than 1.5 goals per game, a rare statistic even in today’s era of multiple targets. Jeremy McGovern will want to mark everything in sight but in Jordan De Goey, Brody Mihocek, Will Hoskin-Elliott, Josh Thomas and Jaidyn Stephenson the Pies will try to separate West Coast’s back six so the Gov and Tom Barrass can’t win the aerial battles.
WEST COAST INJURY ROOM
Josh Kennedy (shin) test
Lewis Jetta (calf)
Nic Naitanui (knee) season
COLLINGWOOD INJURY ROOM
Adam Treloar (hamstrings) test
Tyson Goldsack (knee) available
Jeremy Howe (thigh) available
Darcy Moore (hamstring) 2-3 weeks
Ben Reid (calf) TBC
WHO WILL WIN AND WHY
Eleven years after the Pies knocked over West Coast in a stunning overtime victory at Subiaco, Collingwood will do it again. Midfield power, ruck dominance, a versatile forward line, belief in Buckley’s system.
Collingwood by 12.
TAB ODDS
West Coast $1.65 v Collingwood $2.25 (Line -6.5)
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