David King urges Essendon to play Cale Hooker forward as stats show the swing makes a nine-goal difference

He was one of Essendon’s matchwinners against Gold Coast and the stats suggest Cale Hooker is much more valuable in attack. As David King writes, it’s time for the Bombers to start the star swingman up forward.

Cale Hooker should start in attack, writes David King. Pic: Michael Klein

Essendon is the most aggressive football club in the AFL.

Yet when it comes to throwing the first punch in the fight, at the start of the game, Cale Hooker starts in defence.

Surprisingly, the decision to throw Hooker’s magnet forward only arises through desperation.

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The Bombers do it to ignite a comeback — when the game is sliding or in the balance late in the piece.

But it’s time they started Hooker forward in an endeavour to win the game as early as possible.

The Bombers have not won a first quarter for three weeks and have scored only eight goals in their past four first quarters, despite high volumes of inside forward 50 entries.

Surely something needs to change?

Essendon does its best work with Cale Hooker closer to goal. Pic: Getty Images

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If coaching is about maximising your assets, then John Worsfold and his coaching staff need to ask themselves why they are starting Hooker deep in defence.

Because when Hooker is in Essendon’s forward line, the Bombers score.

They score at 97 points per 100 minutes.

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But when he plays down back they score only 63 points per 100 minutes.

Ironically, when Hooker plays forward, the Bombers defence improves — they go from conceding 62 points per 100 minutes to 42 points per 100 minutes.

That’s a combined nine goal per 100-minute improvement.

In an industry of small margins these numbers cannot be ignored.

David King isn’t sure why John Worsfold won’t start Hooker forward. Pic: Getty Images

Admittedly the figures are linked to a small sample size, but that is exactly why we need to see more of it.

When the Essendon forwards are marking their inside 50 entries and converting their opportunities, it protects the then undersized Bomber backline.

It creates that all-important momentum that is so often difficult to ignite let alone reverse.

Essendon has a glut of tall defenders that they can utilise.

Patrick Ambrose is a high-quality stopper, Aaron Francis appears confident and comfortable as an intercepting defender and the return of Martin Gleeson cannot be undersold.

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Michael Hurley will return later in the year and Michael Hartley can also assist in his role.

The problem is that Essendon, without Joe Daniher and Hooker back, lacks tall forward targets.

Hooker is the Bombers’ best forward line target.

He wins 50 per cent of his one-on-one contests, including directly out-marking his opponent in six of his 21 targeted opportunities.

Jake Stringer has marked seven of his 40 targeted opportunities, Shaun McKernan five of his 43 and Mitch Brown is yet to out-mark his opponent after 32 one-on-on-one opportunities.

Hooker transforms the Bomber forward line because he’s prepared to stand under a high ball entry or fight tooth and nail for front position in a pack.

Shaun McKernan has had a good season. Pic: Getty Images

Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti roves Hooker and co. Pic: AAP

He provides a consistent drop-of-ball reference point for Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and company.

Hooker’s forward craft is strong and his ability to come back to the kicker at the correct time is how he gets separation on his direct opponent.

He’s not quick but his football IQ is substantial.

But what is posing a real head scratcher for the Essendon forward coaches is the diversity of their tall talent — which boast many “specialist” types.

Brown appears a more mobile threat compared to McKernan who takes more marks inside forward 50 as his physicality is a feature, noting that 12 of those 21 marks are contested.

McKernan has slotted 14 goals this season but only two of those have come against top eight teams, where as Brown has a 50/50 split of nine goals versus the bottom 10 teams and the top eight teams.

So just how potent can these specialists be in the finals series?

During the first 15 rounds of the season Essendon was the poorest top eight team to convert an inside 50 entry.

But since then have placed behind only Richmond and the West Coast Eagles.

Essendon’s speed out of defence has become its point of difference but is that facet alone significant enough to win finals football?

On numbers the Bombers possess very few weapons that could challenge the upper echelon.

But the Bomber forward line could be the cure-all and become Essendon’s strong suit.

They welcome back the wildcard, freakish talent of Orazio Fantasia and combined with 2019 All-Australian contender Jake Stringer and the magic man McDonald Tipungwuti, their forward line quickly becomes a house of horrors for any back six defensive unit.

The key forward combination is the biggest discussion point for the Bombers match committee.

Hooker’s swingman role this year has been an astounding success. But it could have an even greater impact if he started forward.

To swing or not to swing, that is Hooker’s question.

Defensive rebounder Conor McKenna is one of the Bombers’ strengths. Pic: Mark Stewart