Dustin Martin appears certain Brownlow winner but there can be surprises, writes Mick Malthouse
THINK Dusty is a lock to win the Brownlow Medal? Think again. Don’t be surprised if tonight’s vote count strays off the script, writes MICK MALTHOUSE.
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Richmond’s Dustin Martin is the clear favourite to win the Brownlow Medal tonight and right now I think he is the best player in the league.
But then again, I thought Geoff Raines was the best player in the VFL in 1980 when Richmond won the premiership, and he didn’t get a single vote.
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Footscray forward Kelvin Templeton won the award that year with 23 votes.
The Brownlow Medal — the most important individual honour of the football year — is an umpire’s award, we should never forget that.
And I strongly believe that it should always remain an award for the best, and the fairest, player.
Rarely has there been a year when the crowned Brownlow medallist hasn’t deserved the accolades.
But, there have also been many players who have stood the test of time to be considered legends of the game without a Brownlow Medal to their name.
Perhaps the stand out is Leigh Matthews. Closely followed by Wayne Carey.
Kevin Bartlett could be considered unlucky, so too Nick Riewoldt, and Bobby Rose at Collingwood.
In 2010 I thought Dane Swan had an outstanding year with the Pies, in that he had such a profound effect on our ability to be in a position to win a premiership. He dominated the possession rate.
Yet the medal was awarded to Chris Judd and I’m sure even he would acknowledge that it was a surprise that he polled ahead of Swan.
Because surprises can occur on Brownlow night.
Patrick Dangerfield as we know is ineligible to win and I wonder if the umpires would have been just as generous with their votes for him once they knew he had been suspended? Possibly not.
Crow Rory Sloane has had a big season. He scored 24 votes last year, but once it was evident he could be tagged out of the game he went through some lean periods.
Dayne Zorko has been very good for Brisbane, but he plays for the bottom side.
Scott Pendlebury is always a high vote getter but he has missed large chunks of the season through injury, and Collingwood’s form has been patchy.
As star studded as GWS is, Stephen Coniglio polled just 17 votes last year, and this year has probably missed too many games with injury.
Paddy Ryder has been the most influential player at Port Adelaide, but he’s a ruckman so he won’t win it.
Lance Franklin is Sydney’s best player, but as a forward he won’t poll enough votes.
I’ll be shocked if the Coleman medallist doesn’t receive three votes for his 10-goal haul against Carlton in Round 23, and yet I don’t expect him to poll in the top 10 this season.
One player who should poll well, and may surprise, is Essendon’s Zach Merrett.
He has had a wonderful year and with 19 votes last year, it suggests he does catch the eye of the umpires.
Perhaps the biggest threat to Martin though is Hawk Tom Mitchell.
The leading vote getters for the Hawks last year were Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis, who were shown the door. Tom Mitchell is a quiet achiever.
He was quite prolific in his possession rate with Sydney last year and only received 12 votes, so the question is has he been noticed enough by the umpires this season?
IT’S A MIDFIELDER’S MEDAL
The trend in Brownlow voting has changed over the years.
There was a time between 1972 and 1981 that six ruckmen took out the award: Len Thompson, Gary Dempsey, Graham Moss, Graham Teasdale, Peter Moore and Barry Round.
Other ruckmen to win were Jim Stynes in 1991 and Scott Wynd in 1992.
Perhaps it can also be said that Adam Goodes played a ruck-type role for Sydney when he was adorned the medal in 2003 and 2006.
The reason for this dominance was the ruckman’s game style, where he would read the play to position himself in the opposition’s forward line and take mark after mark (to simplify it).
At the start of last season I predicted Demon Max Gawn would take out the Brownlow Medal for his ability to do this, as well as to mark forward of the ball and kick goals. He scored only 16 votes.
In our current game it’s hard to see another ruckman winning. And it’s unlikely that a full-forward will either.
The last of the key forwards to win the Brownlow were Tony Lockett in 1987, Ross Glendinning in 1983, Bernie Quinlan in 1981 and Templeton in 1980.
It’s hard to believe that Peter Hudson couldn’t win with 150 goals in 1971, or Jason Dunstall with 145 goals in 1992, or Gary Ablett Sr during his dominant era or even Lance Franklin of late.
Defenders are different story altogether. I have to go back to 1959 and St Kilda’s Verdun Howell to find a fullback who has claimed the award, tallying 20 votes.
Great team defence wins premierships, but being an individual defender doesn’t win you a Brownlow. It’s a selfless game in the backline (says I, a mere back pocket).
There have been other players in the past 50 years who have won from a non-dedicated midfield position, but not many.
Then Bomber Gavin Wanganeen played back-pocket when he won with 18 votes in 1993 as a 20-year old, the youngest Brownlow medallist since 1940.
And Hawk Robert DiPierdomenico won with 17 votes as a wingman in 1986.
So it is possible to win from other positions, but the true darlings of the competition are the mass possession getters and in today’s game that is inevitably going to come from the midfield.
Just over 30 years ago Greg Williams won his first Brownlow Medal.
Since then we’ve witnessed some great mids taking out the award.
John Platten (with Tony Lockett in 1987), Paul Kelly (1995), Michael Voss and James Hird (1996), Robert Harvey (1997/1998), Shane Crawford (1999), Simon Black (2002), Nathan Buckley, Mark Ricciuto and Adam Goodes (2003), Chris Judd (2004/2010), Ben Cousins (2005), Gary Ablett (2009/2013), Dane Swan (2011) and Patrick Dangerfield (2016.)
Outside of Zach Merrett and Tom Mitchell, the reality is that there is little threat to Dustin Martin being crowned the 2017 Brownlow medallist.
Then again, if Martin doesn’t wear the medal at the end of the night, he’ll join a long list of champion players who didn’t become the umpire’s champion.
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