David King says it’s difficult not to see Geelong continuing its remarkable winning rate in 2019
Are the Cats a victim of their own success and judged too harshly, or is the window still open? In Footy19 DAVID KING writes while there’s question marks on the Cats this year, there’s also cause for optimism.
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Every season Chris Scott has coached Geelong it has been a winning one.
Scott has won more home and away games than he’s lost in his eight years, so it’s curious why the Cats are only a mid-table team.
There appears to be a perception they’ve underachieved or, worse, failed. Particularly at the pointy end of the season, where they’ve won only three of their past 12 finals.
Granted, Scott has won 40 per cent of 15 finals, but it becomes small margins at the business end of the season.
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DAHLHAUS: WHY CATS HAS BEEN GOOD FOR ME
CRYSTAL BALL: WILL GAZ LAST THE YEAR?
There is the counter argument that since 2011, the Cats have performed above all expectations, possibly even their own.
They’ve fought the decline without the assistance of high-end draft selections, and have missed the finals only once in that seven-year stretch.
It’s too simplistic to nominate losing finals as the benchmark for success or failure of coaches. In many ways, Scott and Geelong have been victims of their success.
But how does Geelong climb from being a pretender to a premiership chance? Who are the Cats’ gap fillers and how big is this gap?
Is it recruit Luke Dahlhaus? Is the organic growth of youngsters such as Brandan Parfitt, Nakia Cockatoo, Charlie Constable and Jack Henry enough? Eight of Geelong’s nine losses last season were by under 18 points and it finished the season with the competition’s second-best percentage.
The line-up was incredibly young last season. For example, in their 18-point loss to Sydney in Round 6, more than half the team had played fewer than 50 games, while Sydney had seven.
Geelong had the AFL’s most frugal defence. The evolution of Tom Stewart and Mark Blicavs into All-Australian defenders has been nothing short of stunning.
The defensive unit was without Harry Taylor or Lachie Henderson for most of 2018, making its back six young and/or inexperienced, apart from Zach Tuohy. So there are promising signs.
Geelong had a top four-rated attack, but it has been Tom Hawkins or bust for too long. Hawkins had a stellar 60-goal season, then it was Dan Menzel and its midfielders on the goalkicking leaderboard.
So does Geelong need Patrick Dangerfield more as a forward or a midfielder? The Cats have other options for the midfield, but no other options with the reward he offers as a deep forward.
The forward half desperately needed someone with the football DNA of Dahlhaus.
He brings experience to a difficult role of producing elite forward-half pressure. While not a noted goalkicker, his 20-disposal average will be all quality.
The Cats still possess high-level talent in the midfield, but they were the worst clearance team for the first half of the season, then almost the best after the bye rounds.
Dangerfield is again a standout, but Tim Kelly’s first season shone a bright light on this group.
Kelly was not only their third-best clearance and contested ball player, but kicked more than a goal a game. It is time for the next wave to take over the prime roles.
Geelong has delivered excellence for so long it would be difficult to comprehend anything but in 2019.
• Footy19 is available from March 2 while stocks last at participating newsagents and IGA and Woolworths stores in Victoria/Riverina. Cost is $4.95 plus purchase price of that day’s Herald Sun.
LAUREN WOOD’S SNAP CHAT WITH ZACH TUOHY
LW: What AFL rule would you change?
ZT: If the footy hits the goal post and goes through, it’s a goal. If it comes back into play, it’s play on … simple.
Coach’s pet?
Joel Selwood.
Your pick for Grand Final entertainment?
“Sticks” Kernahan, Stand By Your Man.
What’s your go-to karaoke song?
Not enough Guinness in the world to make me do karaoke.
Go-to meal when the club dietitians aren’t looking?
Shepherd’s pie.
If I wasn’t a footballer I would be …
A virgin.
Most loved drill?
Backs v forwards.
CHRIS CAVANAGH’S YOUNG GUN — ESAVA RATUGOLEA
This big man was the talk of G-Town in the first half of last season before a broken leg in Round 10 cut short his debut year. A former soccer and rugby player who only took up football in 2013, the 197cm Ratugolea’s upside is as big as his frame and the Cats will be hoping to see him become a genuine weapon in the forward half this year.
SUPERCOACH AFL WITH GILBERT GARDINER
1 Patrick Dangerfield — $660,500 MID-FWD
Don’t be shy, Dangerfield should be among the first picked in SuperCoach despite the dual position curve-ball. The Brownlow medallist could play in the back pocket and still put up respectable numbers.
2 Tim Kelly — $505,800 MID-FWD
Interesting. Seems a lot to spend on a second-year prospect, but a dearth of proven — more so reliable — scorers in the forward line could open the door for the West Australian ball magnet.
3 Nathan Kreuger — $123,900 FWD
The 19-year-old 195cm swingman booted 22 goals in 13 SANFL games last year and could be one worth monitoring in the pre-season given the Cats’ record of identifying state-league talent.
The Herald Sun’s expert footy team give their predictions for the 2019 AFL season
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