Countdown the top 10 AFL future bets available in the early markets for 2019
It is a long off-season in the AFL. But the odds makers never sleep. With players slowly returning to pre-season, there are already a host of markets available for 2019. We have analysed them all to find the 10 best long term bets in the AFL.
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It is a long off-season in the AFL. But the odds makers at the TAB never sleep.
The bookmaker has already put out a host of futures markets for the 2019 season, with plenty of value up for grabs for any punters keen to bet early.
And with pre-season training kicking off last week, we’ve gone through all the early markets in search of some winners and the best value.
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Check out our top 10 future plays below.
10 - Rory Sloane to finish top three in the Brownlow at $13.50 (TAB)
This is a BIG price for a guy who, across 2016 and 2017, was third in combined Brownlow votes behind only Dustin Martin and Patrick Dangerfield.
While his 2018 season was heavily impacted by injury, all indications are pointing to the elite midfielder returning to his best next year.
He has already started pre-season training (two weeks ahead of schedule) and at 28 years old, he is still well and truly in his prime.
The Crows have all the makings of a big improver next year. Let’s face it, they can’t possibly have worse injury luck. That likely locks them in for a rise up the ladder and who usually polls three votes in winning sides? Midfielders!
9 – Essendon over 12.5 wins at $2.00 (TAB)
In 2018 the Bombers won two of their first eight games. Their star centre half forward Joe Daniher played just seven games and the club had one win and five losses in games decided by 16 points or less.
And even with all that, they still won 12 games. How does this team not win at least 13 games next season?
Dylan Shiel’s addition is exactly what the midfield needed to be able to compete with the best of the best.
Aaron Francis and Jayden Laverde look ready to take the next step and last year’s big three recruits Devon Smith, Adam Saad and Jake Stringer should be even better after a full year at their new club.
This team went 10-4 in the run home last season and there is every reason to think they can maintain that pace in 2019.
8 – Tom Lynch to kick over 70 goals at $9 (TAB)
The last time Tom Lynch played a full season, he booted 66 goals in a team that won six games. Making his effort even more impressive, in that year Gary Ablett and Dion Prestia only played 14 games and Jaeger O’Meara didn’t play at all. So he was hardly receiving silver platter service.
Now hit the upgrade button to a club which can potentially win 20 games and imagine the lace-out delivery of Dustin Martin and Trent Cotchin.
No doubt there will be some forward line chemistry issues to work out with Jack Riewoldt but if they sort those early in the season, it will be all aboard the Lynch train.
7 – Melbourne to make the top four at $2.50 (TAB)
It is going to be tight at the top end of the ladder in 2019 but there is every reason to think Melbourne will be there.
The Demons finished fifth this year, despite losing four games by under 10 points. Two of those games came down to the last kick against Geelong while the other two were to sides that didn’t even make the finals in St Kilda and Port Adelaide.
If Simon Goodwin and his men can tidy that up to the point where they are winning half of those games, they are well and truly talented enough to lock down a top four spot.
They won two finals without Jesse Hogan so there won’t be much of an adjustment period with him now out west. Steven May and the returning Jake Lever could create a Night’s Watch-style wall in the back 50.
6 – Geelong to make the 8 at $1.75 (TAB)
Geelong fans should have been popping the champagne the second the 2019 fixture was released. The Cats were handed a whopping nine games at GMHBA Stadium, which should be more than enough to propel the club into finals for another year.
Geelong’s record at the venue is staggering. Over their last 20 games they are 17-3 and over their last 50 games they are 43-7. How’s that for dominance?
On top of the home town windfall, the Cats will also enjoy 10 of their first 12 games in Victoria and there is a very September feel about this group…again.
5 – Nat Fyfe to win the Brownlow at $7 (TAB)
Our man Rory Sloane is the longshot play but when it comes to a prospect who could blitz through the entire season, Nat Fyfe is the one to watch.
Everything has broken right for a Brownlow push next season, with the Dockers finally adding some forward options in Jesse Hogan and Rory Lobb. That should equal more wins.
Furthermore, Fyfe’s main competition for votes, Lachie Neale is no longer in town.
Fyfe had 16 votes to his name at the half-way point of 2018 before injury halted his season. A clean bill of health (and no suspensions) should see the former winner right in the mix for 2019.
4 – Adelaide last team to lose at $9 (TAB)
If you believe the Crows will be big improvers in 2019 then this is the bet for you. This team could come out of the gates like a steam train.
Round 1 – Hawthorn at AO – Currently $1.55 favourite
Round 2 – Sydney at SCG – Won at the venue in 2018
Round 3 – Geelong at AO – Beat the Cats at AO in 2018
Round 4 – North Melbourne at Marvel - Likely to start favourites
Round 5 – Gold Coast at AO – Rest the veterans and boost the percentage
Round 6 – St Kilda at Marvel – Smashed the Saints by nearly 50 points in this game last season
Round 7 – Fremantle at AO – Clear favourite
Round 8 – The Showdown – Test but will back themselves
Round 9 – Brisbane at the Gabba – Won their last five at the Gabba
No doubt the Sydney game is a big early test but if they get through that, look out.
3 - Carlton under 6.5 wins at $1.95 (TAB)
Which four clubs are Carlton better than?
That is the question you have to answer if you think this club is going to hit its over in 2019.
After just two wins this year, they have bolstered their list with Mitch McGovern, Alex Fasolo, Nic Newman and Will Setterfield and will get back Sam Docherty. But does that equal an extra five wins?
Last season, no side in the bottom four won more than five games. If you think the Blues will get to seven wins, you also think they will be 14th or better. That doesn’t sound right.
2 – Gold Coast last team to win a game at $3 (TAB)
The AFL has done everything it can to ease the Suns into the new season, giving them six straight games against sides that missed the eight in 2018.
They start the year with St Kilda, Fremantle, Western Bulldogs, Carlton, Adelaide and Brisbane and while it looks good on paper, they will be underdogs in every one of those games.
According to Champion Data, the Suns don’t have an elite player on their list. They have just two above average players in Nick Holman and Lachie Weller.
AFL great Matthew Lloyd believes it is the worst list in the history of the AFL.
Who knows when (if at all) the first win will come!?
1 – Gold Coast most losses ($1.60) and Gold Coast under 4.5 wins ($1.75) (TAB)
If for some reason we strike out on the above, fear not. Our confidence is just as high on these two.
In 2015 a Gold Coast list which included Gary Ablett, Charlie Dixon, Tom Lynch, Dion Prestia, Jack Martin, Steven May, Harley Bennell, Aaron Hall and Adam Saad won four games.
How does the current Suns list compare? Not well.
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