Carlton right to play hard ball but Blues should consider trading star Bryce Gibbs
CARLTON is right to play hard ball with Adelaide, but they should consider trading star Bryce Gibbs. JON RALPH on the Blues star, Dan Menzel and the head-scratching free agency.
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IF you crunch the numbers and put on your list management hat, it makes sense to trade Bryce Gibbs.
Take the personality out of it, plug the numbers into your computer and it is insane to think the Blues might keep him.
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He has given them 11 years, has put 231 games on the clock and would seemingly be close to the end.
How can Carlton knock back anyone who wants to give them pick 10 for a player of such experience?
Especially given Richmond just traded Brett Deledio for a first and third-round pick, won a flag, and are about to use those picks in November’s draft.
Well as it happens, footy is never as simple as that.
Carlton absolutely should consider trading Gibbs at some stage this week.
But the more you look at their situation — and Gibbs’ amazing durability — you realise they are right to play hard ball with Adelaide.
Those who know 28-year-old Gibbs say he would like to go back to Adelaide if possible, as would his fiance Lauren.
But to trade Gibbs for a late first-rounder — say the pick 18 Adelaide might get for Charlie Cameron — might be a break-even at best.
If you look at Gibbs’ history and consistency it’s easy to consider they could still get 120 top-line games from the former No. 1 pick.
After all, he is only 29 next March.
In 2014 his year went pear-shaped — he missed three games with a back injury, two weeks with suspension and eight weeks with a pectoral muscle tear
The critics came for him too, because they always come for Gibbs.
Yet in every other season he has played, Gibbs has managed at least 21 games.
He played every game in 2007, missed one in 2008, every game in 2009, every game in 2010, missed one in 2011, every game in 2012, missed three in 2013, and every game in the past two years.
He finished fifth in the b-and-f in 2013, won it in 2014, finished fourth in 2016 and fourth in 2017.
He is a model of consistency.
So if Carlton cave on trading him for pick 18 or so, they are taking a player in a mediocre draft who might take seasons to develop.
And giving Adelaide a star midfielder who can play inside midfield, can tag, can effortlessly play half back, and is a regular goalkicker.
If one of his behinds this year had squeezed through for a goal he would have had identical stats in the past two seasons: 590 possessions, 18 goals 12 behinds.
Remarkable.
He could easily play great or very good seasons at Carlton in the years he turns 29, 30, 31 and 32 before going to half back for another year or two.
Put yourself in Brendon Bolton’s shoes and you realise why only a first-rounder and a pick or player is the kind of deal Carlton will consider.
This year they will find a way to recruit hard-nut GWS midfielder Matthew Kennedy and take pick 3 at the draft.
That means one of the star mids that populate the top end of the draft.
They are explosive Western Jets midfielder Cam Rayner, Dandenong Stringrays 187cm midfielder Luke Davies-Uniacke, Bendigo mid Paddy Dow or Eastern Ranges inside midfielder Adam Cerra.
But Brendon Bolton will know the heat is coming from critics in his third year, even if the rousing win over Hawthorn in Round 22 added some feel-good vibes.
The last month of scrutiny over their lack of scoring is a taste of things to come.
So with Gibbs they have Marc Murphy, Patrick Cripps, Sam Petrevski-Seton, Sam Kerridge, Ed Curnow, Zac Fisher and Nick Graham.
Without him the midfield is still a little thin, especially if Murphy or Cripps go down with injury.
Steve Silvagni’s message to Carlton should be simple — give us two first-rounders.
Or at the very least a first-rounder and your second-rounder from next year.
Adelaide already has Melbourne’s first-rounder from next year, so won’t miss its second-rounder.
If they get low-balled on Gibbs they could easily spend the next five years watching him play great footy over the border and regretting it.
NO ONE UNDERSTANDS FREE AGENCY COMPENSATION
A few quick take-outs from the past week of free agency.
First, it doesn’t seem to be creating the two-tier system many complained about.
Jackson Trengove went to a Dogs side further down the ladder than his Port Adelaide outfit.
And Steven Motlop left a preliminary final Geelong side to go to the Power, joined by Tom Rockliff (who did consider immediate success).
Secondly, if it has freed up player movement because it has emboldened the likes of Jake Lever, it hasn’t seen a flood of changes.
Of the 60 available players in March, only three left while still wanted by their clubs.
So it hasn’t ruined the AFL, and its greatest virtue is its ability to get delisted players to their clubs of choice easily.
But its greatest weakness seems to be a free agency compensation formula that no one understands at all.
Is it time to just reveal the formula for free agency compensation.
Geelong believed it would get a mid-30s pick as compensation and instead got pick 19.
That is the same pick as Lance Franklin, a first-round pick at a club which was effectively penalised because it won the flag.
Why is free agency compensation tied to ladder position?
Why not just put it in bands — pick 10, pick 15, pick 20, pick 25, pick 30 and so on?
And factor in past performances, contract size, All Australian nods, durability, consistency.
Because right now it too often spits out decisions that are hard to fathom.
St Kilda was handed pick 25 for Nick Dal Santo who played three years, but the Blues got nothing for Jarrad Waite, who is about to play his fourth year at the Roos.
Franklin is one of the greats of all time and his club got 19 for him, while Motlop is one of the most frustrating players in the comp — and was judged worthy of the same compo pick.
DANIEL MENZEL IS THE BEST BANG-FOR-BUCK FORWARD IN THE GAME
Daniel Menzel didn’t get an offer from a rival club as the first cut-off period for free agency expired on Sunday at 5pm.
What it means is he is almost certain to have to accept a one-year deal from Geelong next year.
It has been widely reported he was on $300,000 this year and has only been offered $200,000 next year.
His manager Adam Ramanauskas hasn’t returned repeated calls to clarify, so the figures are likely to be around the ballpark.
What it highlights is Menzel will be the best value-for-money forward in the competition next year.
Menzel kicked the 20th-most goals in the competition this year with 40.16.
It’s pretty much all he does, given he doesn’t pressure or tackle in a game that demands both.
But he does it bloody well, and at a cut-price rate.
Consider the rest of the top 20.
Lance Franklin was paid $1.2 million for his 73 goals, Jeremy Cameron got somewhere near $1 million for his 45 goals.
Jack Riewoldt (54 goals), Josh Kennedy (69 goals), Tom Hawkins (51 goals) and Cale Hooker (41 goals) are all up somewhere near $800,000.
All of them tackle more, or crash packs or are All Australians or have won Grand Finals for their side.
But Ben Brown kicked 63 goals from 22 goals (2.8 goals a game) and won a fat extension after Wayne Carey said he deserved $1.2 million a year.
Menzel kicked 40 goals from 19 games playing in starvation corner (1.97 goals a game) and he is on $200,000 next year.
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