AFL tipping 2018: Expert predictions for round 1, 2018
TIPPING is back for 2018! Our experts have cast their predictions for round 1 of the new season and 2017 champion Chris Cavanagh has a quick do’s and don’ts to ensure you stay top of the table.
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IN the equalised world that is modern-day AFL football, tipping a winner is getting tougher.
Last year, the team who was favoured to win with bookmaker TAB lost on 68 occasions – the most in a season since statistics were first taken in 2007.
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In the Herald Sun, Kiss of Death managed 74 correct tips, having not reached 60 in the previous four years.
However, we are here to help with a few tips to see you climb your office tipping competition this year.
DON’T: ALWAYS TIP YOUR OWN TEAM
When it comes to tipping, you’ve got to go with your head, not your heart.
If you were a Carlton supporter last season and blindly tipped the Blues on a weekly basis, you potentially just kissed goodbye to 16 correct tips.
Yes, you can lean to your side on occasion in games expected to be relatively close, but keep in mind that not many $4-plus outsiders get up.
DO: PAY ATTENTION TO HOME GROUND ADVANTAGE
Some home ground advantages are bigger than others.
Think about Geelong, which has won 43 of its past 50 matches at Kardinia Park.
The Cats would have to be missing their best four players and be tackling a genuinely in-form opposition for me to tip against them there.
Narrowing in on last season, Richmond went 12-2 at the MCG, Adelaide went 11-3 at Adelaide Oval and West Coast went 9-3 at Subiaco Oval.
Follow the trends and give some weight to the home crowd factor.
D ON’T: ALWAYS JUST PICK THE FAVOURITE
Firstly, as we’ve already stated, favourites don’t always win.
In fact, last season they lost 33 per cent of the time or, in other words, there were three upsets per round.
Secondly, no one wins tipping competitions by selecting every favourite every week. Try and select at least two well-considered outsiders a week.
DO: CONSIDER WHO HOLDS THE WOOD
The perfect example here is Melbourne’s record against North Melbourne.
The Demons have fallen to the Roos in the past 17 meetings dating to 2007, with an average margin of 36 points.
In Round 19 last year they met in Hobart with North Melbourne a $3.25 outsider. I tipped the Roos, who got up by four points.
Yes, streaks don’t last forever but give them a little consideration.
DON’T: TIP TEAMS THAT CAN’T TRAVEL
We’re pointing the finger at Carlton here.
The Blues have an appalling interstate record, winning just three of 23 games outside Victoria since 2014.
They are not the only ones who struggle on the road, with Brisbane 1-9 interstate last season, Gold Coast going 2-8, Western Bulldogs 2-5 and West Coast 3-7.
ROUND 1 TIPS:
JON ANDERSON
Richmond 23
Essendon 3
St Kilda 38
Port Adelaide 21
Gold Coast 11
Hawthorn 13
GWS Giants 17
Geelong 2
Sydney 14
DANIEL ANDREWS
Richmond 54
Essendon 7
St Kilda 35
Port Adelaide 48
North Melbourne 15
Collingwood 12
GWS Giants 27
Melbourne 3
Sydney 13
NATHAN BROWN
Richmond 37
Essendon 9
St Kilda 28
Port Adelaide 25
Gold Coast 23
Hawthorn 19
GWS Giants 38
Melbourne 3
Sydney 54
CHRIS CAVANAGH
Richmond 50
Adelaide 18
St Kilda 20
Port Adelaide 24
Gold Coast 8
Hawthorn 14
GWS Giants 16
Geelong 6
West Coast 1
BIANCA CHATFIELD
Richmond 10
Adelaide 15
St Kilda 12
Port Adelaide 12
North Melbourne 8
Hawthorn 7
GWS Giants 10
Geelong 8
Sydney 8
JAY CLARK
Richmond 27
Adelaide 15
St Kilda 12
Port Adelaide 38
Gold Coast 15
Hawthorn 6
GWS Giants 26
Melbourne 5
Sydney 12
PATRICK DANGERFIELD
Richmond
Adelaide
St Kilda
Port Adelaide
Gold Coast
Collingwood
GWS Giants
Geelong
Sydney
SAM EDMUND
Richmond 6
Adelaide 21
St Kilda 1
Port Adelaide 10
Gold Coast 26
Hawthorn 16
GWS Giants 2
Melbourne 9
Sydney 30
GILBERT GARDINER
Richmond 88
Essendon 23
St Kilda 20
Port Adelaide 40
North Melbourne 1
Hawthorn 11
GWS Giants 34
Geelong 18
Sydney 15
MAX GAWN
Richmond
Essendon
St Kilda
Port Adelaide
Gold Coast
Hawthorn
GWS Giants
Melbourne
Sydney
BRENDON GODDARD
Richmond
Essendon
St Kilda
Port Adelaide
Gold Coast
Collingwood
GWS Giants
Melbourne
Sydney
SCOTT GULLAN
Richmond 44
Essendon 3
St Kilda 12
Port Adelaide 25
Gold Coast 1
Collingwood 1
GWS Giants 1
Geelong 7
Sydney 2
MATTHEW GUY
Richmond 23
Essendon 5
St Kilda 39
Port Adelaide 13
Gold Coast 21
Collingwood 2
GWS Giants 17
Geelong 3
West Coast 19
JAMES HIRD
Richmond 21
Essendon 15
St Kilda 25
Port Adelaide 9
Gold Coast 11
Hawthorn 21
GWS Giants 15
Melbourne 13
Sydney 21
SARAH JONES
Richmond 48
Essendon 14
St Kilda 20
Port Adelaide 8
Gold Coast 3
Hawthorn 23
GWS Giants 4
Melbourne 9
Sydney 20
DAVID KING
Richmond 12
Essendon 1
St Kilda 20
Port Adelaide 23
Gold Coast 12
Hawthorn 10
GWS Giants 12
Geelong 4
Sydney 30
SAM LANDSBERGER
Richmond 36
Adelaide 7
St Kilda 2
Port Adelaide 25
Gold Coast 19
Hawthorn 6
GWS Giants 1
Melbourne 32
Sydney 40
MATTHEW LLOYD
Richmond 45
Essendon 21
St Kilda 19
Port Adelaide 15
Gold Coast 3
Hawthorn 8
GWS Giants 30
Melbourne 17
Sydney 26
MICK MALTHOUSE
Richmond 27
Adelaide 7
St Kilda 19
Port Adelaide 21
Gold Coast 15
Hawthorn 5
GWS Giants 30
Melbourne 10
Sydney 20
GLENN McFARLANE
Richmond 20
Essendon 3
St Kilda 12
Port Adelaide 24
North Melbourne 3
Collingwood 1
GWS Giants 6
Melbourne 7
Sydney 9
JON RALPH
Richmond 13
Essendon 9
St Kilda 32
Port Adelaide 5
Gold Coast 4
Collingwood 5
GWS Giants 5
Melbourne 8
Sydney 7
MARK ROBINSON
Richmond 30
Essendon 20
St Kilda 35
Port Adelaide 28
Gold Coast 16
Hawthorn 21
GWS Giants 36
Melbourne 12
Sydney 28
ELIZA SEWELL
Richmond 20
Adelaide 5
St Kilda 10
Port Adelaide 25
North Melbourne 11
Collingwood 6
GWS Giants 5
Geelong 2
Sydney 8
SHANE WARNE
Richmond 33
Essendon 3
St Kilda 8
Port Adelaide 30
Gold Coast 10
Hawthorn 11
GWS Giants 17
Geelong 1
Sydney 23
MICHAEL WARNER
Richmond 43
Essendon 4
St Kilda 11
Port Adelaide 7
Gold Coast 1
Hawthorn 14
GWS Giants 9
Geelong 8
Sydney 2
TIM WATSON
Richmond 29
Adelaide 15
St Kilda 21
Port Adelaide 25
Gold Coast 11
Collingwood 9
GWS Giants 18
Melbourne 5
Sydney 12
GERARD WHATELEY
Richmond 18
Essendon 3
St Kilda 20
Port Adelaide 24
Gold Coast 6
Collingwood 2
GWS Giants 9
Geelong 12
Sydney 16
LAUREN WOOD
Richmond 21
Essendon 9
St Kilda 15
Port Adelaide 20
Gold Coast 11
Hawthorn 13
GWS Giants 19
Geelong 17
Sydney 12
DERMOTT BRERETON
Richmond 29
Essendon 18
St Kilda 12
Port Adelaide 25
Gold Coast 7
Hawthorn 6
GWS Giants 12
Geelong 21
Sydney 35
KISS OF DEATH
Carlton 13
Adelaide 13
Brisbane Lions 13
Fremantle 13
North Melbourne 13
Collingwood 13
Western Bulldogs 13
Geelong 13
West Coast 13
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