AFL tipping 2017: Herald Sun expert tips for round one

JAMES Hird has joined the Herald Sun’s AFL tipping team for 2017. How will he fare against defending champion Jon Ralph? Check out all the tips for round one.

JAMES Hird has joined the Herald Sun’s AFL tipping team for 2017. How will he fare against defending champion Jon Ralph?

ROUND 1 MATCHES:

Carlton v Richmond (MCG) - Thursday 7.20pm

Collingwood v Western Bulldogs (MCG) - Friday 7.50pm

St Kilda v Melbourne (ES) - Saturday 4.35pm

Sydney v Port Adelaide (SCG) - Saturday 4.35pm

Essendon v Hawthorn (MCG) - Saturday 7.25pm

Gold Coast v Brisbane (Metricon) - Saturday 8.05pm

North Melbourne v West Coast (ES) - Sunday 1.10pm

Adelaide v GWS (AO) - Sunday 2.20pm

Fremantle v Geelong (Subiaco) - Sunday 4.40pm

Check out all the tips for round one:

   Jon Anderson's top tips:

   Total so far: 0 

St Kilda can continue their ownership of the Demons in a meeting of the most likely ladder climbers.

   Kevin Bartlett's top tips:

   Total so far:  

Tigers to win by biggest ever margin in AFL history.

   Mark Robinson's top tips:

   Total so far: 0 

   Marcus Bontempelli's top tips:

   Total so far: 0 

   Dermott Brereton's top tips:

   Total so far: 0 

   Jon Ralph's top tips:

   Total so far: 0 

A total crapshoot. Think Fyfe can put on the superman cape and believe in the GWS midfield over Crows.

   Chris Cavanagh's top tips:

   Total so far: 0 

Richmond should probably win by more, but does not exactly have a good recent history of putting sides away.

   Lauren Wood's top tips:

   Total so far: 0 

Death, taxes and the Saints beating Melbourne at Etihad Stadium. St Kilda have had 14 wins on the trot against Melbourne and expecting another to the tally.

   Patrick Dangerfield's top tips:

   Total so far: 0 

Go Cats

   Gil Gardiner's top tips:

   Total so far: 0 

I'm tipping the Roos in a cliffhanger. They'll be champing at the bit to get the season off to a flying start.

   Tim Watson's top tips:

   Total so far: 0 

   Jay Clark's top tips:

   Total so far: 0 

Richmond is a lock, surely, against the young Blues but Freo can cause the upset of the round over the Cats. Should be tight. Dockers odds very generous.

James Hird's top tips:

Total so far: 0

Cannot wait to see the Bombers scrape over the line against the old enemy.

   Sam Landsberger's top tips:

   Total so far: 0 

   Mick Malthouse's top tips:

   Total so far: 0 

St Kilda and Melbourne could be fighting for the same final top 8 position, so the first strike is vital. The Saints are looking good to set up their season.

   Glenn McFarlane's top tips:

   Total so far: 0 

Agonised over the Demons Saints game but tipping Melbourne to end their decade long drought against St Kilda - just!

   Malcom Turnbull's top tips:

   Total so far:  

Have been waiting for the start to the 2017 season. Tipping my Swans to have a strong win at home.

   Mick Warner's top tips:

   Total so far: 0 

First of 25-straight wins for GWS.

   David King's top tips:

   Total so far: 0 

   Eliza Sewell's top tips:

   Total so far: 0 

The Sam Mitchell factor was the sole reason I tipped the Eagles.

.

   Trent Cotchin's top tips:

   Total so far: 0 

   Scott Gullan's top tips:

   Total so far: 0 

The key is to be courageous from the start. Home interstate teams in Round 1 are always a good bet with Adelaide and Fremantle fitting that mould.

   Gerard Whateley's top tips:

   Total so far: 0 

The Giants will justify the spruik and take the very significant scalp of the Crows at home first up

   Bec Williams's top tips:

   Total so far: 0 

   Scott Pendlebury's top tips:

   Total so far: 0 

Matthew Lloyd's top tips:

Total so far: 0

I am tipping Melbourne to break their St Kilda hoodoo and win in an absolute thriller.

   Sam Edmund's top tips:

   Total so far: 0 

This time last year the Tigers got the jitters and got out of jail. This time it is straight to Barwon.

   Bianca Chatfield's top tips:

   Total so far: 0 

Expect the first round to throw up some unexpected results, it is always a mix of excitement, nerves and relief preseason is done for any athlete, best performances are not always there yet.

   Kiss of Death's top tips:

   Total so far: 0 

FOOTY FORM - MICHAEL MANLY

CARLTON v RICHMOND

MCG

Thursday, 7.20pm

THE FLUCS

October 25

Carlton $2.45

Richmond $1.55

March 5

Carlton $2.60

Richmond $1.50

March 13

Carlton $2.80

Richmond $1.44

March 14

Carlton $2.75

Richmond $1.45

March 22

Carlton $2.75

Richmond $1.45

PUNTERS believe the Tigers will get off to a flying start against the Blues tonight with 85 per cent of all support on them to win.

There has been little movement in the betting market with Richmond at $1.45 and Carlton at $2.75 for the past week.

Richmond have dominated Carlton in recent meetings, winning the last four matches.

Both teams were poor last year with Richmond winning just eight games and the Blues, seven. Carlton won just one of their last 11 matches while Richmond won one out of their last six.

Carlton’s last win against Richmond was in their 2013 elimination final at the MCG.

Considering pre-season form, Richmond won two of its three JLT Series matches while Carlton lost all three games.

Richmond played its best football last year at the MCG, winning seven and losing seven matches. Included in those defeats were narrow losses to Collingwood and Geelong.

Carlton won three of its nine matches at the ‘G and lost five of its last six matches there.

Richmond trailed the Blues at three-quarter time in the corresponding match last season before finishing over the top to win 14.88 (92) to 12.11 (83).

THE MARGINS

THE LINE

CARLTON

+14.5 $1.90

RICHMOND

-14.5 $1.90

Richmond has attracted 82 per cent of all bets on this market.

CARLTON

Over 39.5 $11 (4%)

Under 39.5 $3.30 (22%)

Draw $51 (2%)

RICHMOND

Over 39.5 $3.75 (18%)

Under 39.5 $2.15 (54%)

MICK SAYS

The Tigers with their influx of recruits such as Dion Prestia, Josh Caddy and Toby Nankervis look ready to charge out of the blocks. Take the $2.45 on Richmond to win by more than 24.5 points in the tri-bet.

ROUND 1 HOT MULTI

Most popular with TAB

Richmond d Carlton $1.45

Western Bulldogs d Collingwood $1.45

St Kilda d Melbourne $1.80

GWS d Adelaide $1.65

Multi price $6.24

Go to Quick Multis at TAB.com.au or TAB App

FUTURES BETS

Bets of note during the off-season

$40,000 @ $1.25 on GWS (Top 8)

$29,000 @ $1.40 on North Melbourne (To miss top 8)

$20,000 @ $51 on Fremantle (Flag)

$15,000 @ $5 on GWS (Flag)

$15,000 @ $2.75 on St Kilda (Top 8)

$13,000 @ $1.30 on Western Bulldogs (Top 8)

$12,500 @ $6 on Western Bulldogs (Flag)

(this runs at bottom of column)

THURSDAY NIGHT SPECIAL

CUBS ON DEBUT’

The TAB has framed a market on how many possessions and goals the Tigers’ two boom recruits Dion Prestia and Josh Caddy will get tonight. You can get $4 on the pair to combine for 50-plus disposals and more than one goal.

Market is located under “Today’s Specials” at tab.com.au and on the app

Odds: TAB

-- Note to subs - only if space --

PREMIERSHIP ODDS

$4.50 GWS

$6 Western Bulldogs

$7.50 Sydney

$9 Hawthorn

$11 Geelong, West Coast

$13 Adelaide

$15 Fremantle

$21 Collingwood

$26 Essendon, Melbourne, St Kilda

$34 Port Adelaide

$67 North Melbourne, Richmond

$81 Gold Coast

$101 Carlton

$251 Brisbane