AFL preliminary finals: Injury list and selection analysis for the remaining six finalists

BAROMETER: IT’S preliminary final week and the pressure ramps up again. Richmond is weighing up changes while Adelaide deals with untimely injuries.

Cat Nakia Cockatoo has recovered from a hamstring injury. Picture: Alison Wynd

IT’S preliminary final week and the pressure ramps up again.

So it’s not the ideal time for injuries to strike, as they have at Adelaide.

The Crows have already lost Brodie Smith to a knee injury and now Mitch McGovern is in serious doubt after reporting a hamstring injury over the weekend.

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Meanwhile, Richmond has a full bill of health for its preliminary final against GWS but could look to shake things up after just one game in three weeks.

The club’s VFL team has been in hot form with several players banging down the door while the AFL incumbents sit idle on their week off.

Geelong will welcome back Tom Lonergan from food poisoning for the trip to Adelaide Oval while fellow defender Tom Stewart must overcome a hamstring niggle.

Mitch McGovern is battling a hamstring injury.

ADELAIDE

INJURIES

Mitch McGovern (hamstring) test

Brodie Smith (knee) season

Jordan Gallucci (jaw) season

Elliott Himmelberg (foot) season

Cam Ellis-Yolmen (knee) season

SELECTION: Don’t expect too many changes on Thursday night at the minor premiers. However, untimely injuries have struck at West Lakes with Brodie Smith requiring a knee reconstruction and Mitch McGovern likely to miss with hamstring soreness. Crows head of football Brett Burton said scan results had not shown anything of significant concern. “Mitch was able to do some running this morning which is encouraging, however he will appear unlikely to be available for this week,” he said. “Given the time of the year, we will push his rehabilitation on to give him every chance to be available as soon as possible.” Curtly Hampton, Kyle Cheney and Alex Keath are in line to replace Smith while Andy Otten and Wayne Milera could replace McGovern if needed.

BEN HIGGINS’S FORECAST: The Crows are very much in the box seat to make their first Grand Final since 1998. Despite injuries to two key players, Don Pyke has some incredible depth at his disposal. Adelaide played Geelong twice in 2017, squaring the ledger with a win at Adelaide Oval in Round 18 after a loss at Simonds Stadium in Round 11. Will one game in three weeks have an impact? It’s hard to say but the Crows’ decision to hold a training camp on the Gold Coast will be heavily scrutinised either way. It’s too hard to look past home ground advantage in this one.

GEELONG

INJURIES

Tom Lonergan (food poisoning) test

Tom Stewart (hamstring) test

Cam Guthrie (calf) test

Nakia Cockatoo (hamstring) test

Josh Cowan (Achilles) season

Lincoln McCarthy (hip) season

Cory Gregson (foot) season

Quinton Narkle (knee) season

Esava Ratugolea (broken hand) season

SELECTION: Another interesting week looms at the Cattery. Is Tom Stewart ready to go after sitting out a large portion of Friday’s semi-final win with a hamstring issue? Tom Lonergan will return but for who? The Cats will be wary of going too tall. And do the Cats roll the dice with Nakia Cockatoo who hasn’t played since Round 18? Cam Guthrie’s calf also isn’t too bad but it’s hard to see him playing after missing just one week with a calf.

After Friday night’s superb win over Sydney it’s hard to shake things up too much. Darcy Lang did more than enough against the Swans to keep his place. Rhys Stanley also did some nice things after being the late replacement for Lonergan. Cats footy boss Steve Hocking said Cockatoo would “have to train fairly well to go past anyone”, perhaps easing James Parsons’ mind.

BEN BROAD’S FORECAST: The Cats are back feeling good about themselves, and in this preliminary final up to their eyeballs. They’ve had a pretty handy recent record against the Crows, Geelong’s back six has doing a good job of curbing the attacking Crows, although the home side did get the job done in the two teams’ last clash. That night, Rory Sloane ran amok early. Expect either Mark Blicavs or Scott Selwood to be by his side all night. The Crows need to worry about a bloke called Dangerfield. Just how Don Pyke’s men start after another week off looms as the big unknown. Adelaide will start favourite, but who could confidently tip what will happen in this most unpredictable of seasons?

Steve Johnson and Devon Smith are managing knee injuries. Picture: Phil Hillyard

GWS GIANTS

INJURIES

Jeremy Cameron (hamstring) season

Shane Mumford (foot) season

Matt Buntine (knee) season

Adam Kennedy (knee) season

Devon Smith (knee) test

SELECTION: We think it’s fair to say Stevie J is safe as houses this week. The veteran bounced back after being dropped for the qualifying final with six goals in the rout of West Coast. Fellow small forward Devon Smith is a chance to return after failing to overcome a knee injury last week. Perhaps the man most at risk is Matt de Boer, who kicked one goal and had 13 disposals and six tackles against the Eagles. If Leon Cameron wants to go short against the Tigers Harrison Himmelberg could make way after the young tall mustered just nine disposals, three marks and a goal.

BEN HIGGINS’S FORECAST: No doubt Leon Cameron and his coaching staff will be feeling much better after thrashing West Coast following their qualifying final loss to Adelaide. The Giants would also be happy with the scoring explosion given the loss of star forward Jeremy Cameron and ruckman Shane Mumford for the season. GWS had 11 goal scorers against the Eagles, which is sure to give Tigers coach Damien Hardwick nightmares.

RICHMOND

INJURIES

Jake Batchelor (arm) TBC

Nathan Drummond (knee) season

Ben Lennon (shoulder) TBC

SELECTION: Several Tigers are banging down the door in the VFL but don’t expect Damien Hardwick to mess with team chemistry. That goes for the AFL and VFL team. That said, does the VFL’s extra match fitness - the AFL team has played once in three weeks - give them an advantage? Shai Bolton, Tyson Stengle and Sam Lloyd are on fire in the reserves while Jack Graham, Jason Castagna and VFL JJ Liston Trophy winner Jacob Townsend have been sitting idle. It would be incredibly harsh but as always, and with a Grand Final on offer, the team comes first.

BEN HIGGINS’S FORECAST: The Tiger Army already has sweaty palms and there’s still five days to go. Richmond hasn’t been in this position often in the past 30 years and would have been confident after its qualifying final win. However, the Giants’ semi-final steamrolling of West Coast might see some doubts start to creep in. The tale of the tape should be confidence building with a heart-breaking, last-gasp loss at Spotless Stadium in Round 9 before a dour 19-point win at the MCG in Round 18.